Member Info for aprogerson

Points fairly clearly to they are trying to flush out more sellers than 'helping' buyers at this SP

Happy to take 4m off me but no more in one go @0.2207p

Only 250k shares available for last 20 minutes or so at 0.23p

MMs have been very busy hoovering up shares by taking out stop losses over the last 2-3 days taking the SP down to 0.2248p earlier today so we are now back above uptrend support channel bottom on the 4-hour and daily charts.
Finishing here or above should be positive and above 0.26p would be very positive.
AIMHO APR

Q3 Report was definitely a mixed bag with the high and unwelcome AISC, but this was more than offset by the rise in realised gold/oz. I am guessing the market 'fears' is that the high AISC is now nailed on going forward.

I have been through several other Gold producing companies trying to assess what would be fair value for HUM and used an EV/Gold Equivalent Ounce produced metric I made up so I could compare apples with bananas and HUM seems to be at a serious 20-30% discount to other small and mid-tier producers.

On the plus side if you are buying HUM it should give you some comfort as its debt continues to fall, the AISC drops back down and other assets come onstream. HUM looks setup for a blistering 2021
AIMHO APR

Nice Price Action today as it looks like CCZ is finally moving out of the 2.3p to 2.8p range it has been stuck in for weeks. A finish above recent high of 3.05p today would be very positive.

FYI: British Bulls added CCZ to their coverage earlier in the week with a 'Stay In Cash' moving them to 'Buy' yesterday
APR

@Ezhik Given the IOCG possibilities they may do so yet ... "Castillo Gold and Copper" does have a nice ring to it!

@The Shrimp Please see some of my posts under this and other threads on RINCON, David Lenigas views, links to Artemis RNS when they were going to purchase Rincon themselves and such plus going through some of the numbers.
> Rincon maps & asset details @ https://www.artemisresources.com.au/index.php/investors-relations/announcements
> DL facebook post & his views on GUN & Rincon strategic shareholding @13-Sept-20 https://t.co/JqKcxNoSQ1?amp=1
> DL Proactive Investors @21-Sept20 GGP, Artemis and GUN (from 08:00/11:00) https://t.co/14NX6hdyrj?amp=1
> My NAV assessment is Rincon = 28% pre-IPO cost £138k @22/23-Jun-20 RNS so assume NAV = £138k & await IPO
> Peter Ruse Podcast @5-Oct-20 https://www.share-talk.com/peter-ruse-director-gunsynd-plc-gun-l-interview/
I have even put together a (very) speculative view on what a Rincon IPO might look like ... see post "Rincon IPO ... a scenario?"
APR

@fulmar How would you envisage the Equity Partner model vs. an Earn-In model working or are these in fact the same thing just different names. My only concern is ARCM is Asset rich but CAPEX/OPEX poor whilst AAL plainly are the other way around and need new large assets to replace their dwindling resources that underpin their balance sheets.

Looking good at the 'Big One'

@AG Rincon I think is the one to watch with a healthy cash balance to top up our stake on IPO. Also it looks like we have a stream of positive news lining up with:
> Kolosori and Sunshine Metal investments converting into stakes in Malachite ASX:MAR which by my rough calculation should be 5-6% of MAR once both have been concluded or approx £250k at todays MAR SP
> conclusion of Sajawin deal for balance £240k cash
> long overdue IPO for Human Brands/Rogue Baron

LOL love charts, so on daily support looks broken but on 4-hour chart we just kissed support and bounced ... go figure. Topped up anyway

MMs taking the micky with over 12% real spread. Got caught last time but want to top-up

Another 1m top-up for me also showing as a sell
26-Oct-20 15:04:09 0.239 1,000,000 Sell* 0.23 0.25 2,390 O

Surprised that bottom of uptrend support broke, but looks like some big buys coming through first thing ....
so is it
(A) MMs fishing for stops to pickup cheap shares
or (B) Support has actually broken and next support at 0.215p beckons?
APR

Earlier 7m Buy was delayed to be painted as a Sell, but PRICE @08:39 was dropped at 08:30 from 0.255 to 0.2449p
26-Oct-20 11:00:25 0.241 15,562 Sell* 0.24 0.25 37.50 O
26-Oct-20 08:39:21 0.241 7,000,000 Sell* 0.24 0.25 16.87k O
26-Oct-20 10:38:32 0.2393 700,000 Sell* 0.24 0.25 1,675 O

@Scotty, please don't misunderstand me I fully expect any IPO to be ABOVE 7.8p so that the current RB holders can make a profit. From a NAV perspective I am being uber-conservative as these are not quoted stocks so if liquidated we could reasonably assume that figure..

If the NAV value I am using is £633k based on conversion SP of 4.46p then assuming IPO is at 7.8p then the IPO value is then £1,107k as an absolute minimum, but as you say HB would doubtless be pushing for a much higher valuation.
AIMHO APR

I have been through RNS 02-Jul-20 to work out reasonable NAV et al following Share X Change with Human Brands
(1) GUN hold CLN=£498,575 @12% due 31-Mar-2021 convertible on demand assuming Rogue Baron value=£1,616,304
(2) Human Brands holds 36,247,500 shares @SP=7.8p so NAV of £2,827,305 for 100% of RB

If GUN converts CLN to RB shares = (£1,616,304) / (36,247,500) = 4.46p/share or 11,178,811 new shares.
Rogue Baron TOTAL shares is now = (36,247,500) +(11,178,811) = 47,426,311 so GUN = 23.6% of enlarged shares pre-IPO
If RB NAV = £2,827,305 from HB share X Change then 23.6% = £667.2k pre-IPO

Note 1: assumes GUN CLN does not increase valuation and excludes 12% interest or HB 3% IPO fee so very conservative.
Note 2: GUN conversion rate into shares is at a 43% discount to HB NAV so nicely geared
AIMHO APR

@cheerfuldoor yes good find and shame HUM hasn't thought to report something substantive via RNS as it should.

... taken from my "GUN Cash, NAV & Newsflow" post.
We know GUN has access to pre-IPO fund-raisings at attractive SP rates to reflect the risk of investing in private firms. The recent sale of Bunker Hill Mining 8-bagged (cost £19k & sale £164k) so I have expectations that any IPO and subsequent sales of below 'should' be at an absolute minimum x2 profit. GUN have exited their Oil based investments namely UKOG & UOG and look to be closing the balance in Oyster Oil & GAs now resurrected via RTO into Angold which is a good result for GUN; the remaining 2x licence blocks are up for sale and Sajawin deal allows GUN to gracefully exit one of those.

Expected transformative news flow in order of impact/proximity (NAV figures are my estimates):
(1a) Malachite option to purchase Kolosori Nickel by 30-Sept-20 (cost/NAV = £45k) sale price not known
(1b) Malachite option to purchase Sunshine Metals ... Confirmation of deal (cost £240k & NAV=£121k) price confirmed
(2) Sajawin option to purchase Madagascar oil licence by 30-Oct-20 (cost £187.5k & NAV=£240k) price confirmed
(3) Rincon IPO & news on South Telfer targets & drilling progress for IPO. GUN target 15% post IPO (cost/NAV=£138k)
(4) Angold IPO (cost/NAV=£165k)
(5) Human Brands IPO (upto 3% fee due) and or Rogue Baron AIM listing & IPO (cost/NAV = £498,575)
(6) Empress Royalty IPO (cost/NAV=£146k)
(7) Eagle Mining drill campaign & results (cost=£255k & NAV=£578k) EM listed so NAV @22-Oct-20
(8) Djibouti oil licence held by SubCo - status update on way forward and/or exit (cost/NAV=£187.5k )

Note: I have rejigged my NAV estimates by splitting £375k of Oyster costs between Madagascar and Djibouti licences increasing overall NAV from £1.93m to £2.18m which seems a more reasonable treatment given what we currently know.

Forecast Cash Available & Residual NAV
GUN has approx. £593k cash to hand plus 3x transaction due (2x Malachite & Sajawin) for min. £406k . Once transactions closed forecast available cash=£1m and implied NAV=£1.712m vs. GUN MCAP=£2.6m. So excluding forecast £1m cash residual NAV coverage rises to 107%.

IMHO this is an awesome position to be in with forecast £1m free cash ready for upcoming Rincon, Angold & Empress Royalty IPOs. Minimal down-side at this MCap given cash and NAV positions with everything to play for.
AIMHO APR