Member Info for aprogerson

Thanks @Agility ... last 2 after market Buys well above closing price of 0.205p paid
04-Nov-20 16:30:13 0.22 1,500,000 Buy* 0.20 0.22 3,300 O
04-Nov-20 16:20:34 0.218 1,370,415 Buy* 0.20 0.22 2,988 O
I'm hoping this is my 'confirmation' that the bottom is in, but as this is US election week and they are still counting it is anyone's best guess.
AIMHO APR

Last trade I can see on LSE is 14:35 so nothing after hours ... yet anyway?

Having a quick look at the Daily chart after market close it looks like the SP is putting in a bottoming pattern but has not yet confirmed this by closing above 0.21p.
Personally, I'd like to see the SP close above prior support of 0.215p to be convinced after the last torrid few days.
AIMHO APR

My understanding is that Rogue Baron is a wholly owned subsidiary of Human Brands and RB owns most of the original brands except one of the Tequilas and the shares in the 2 restaurants businesses. What proportion of the revenues of the revenues this might represent or the current asset values are both unclear as they are both private entities. The £500k CLN is held wholly against RB at a fixed value conversion rate and we have a 3% fee cap on Human Brands for if/when it IPOs.
AIMHO APR

Tweet then links to drilling results for another Nevada based Explorer
https://stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2020/11/02/nevada-gold-copper-miner-discovers-significant-mineralizing-system
No idea on proximity to GWMO and or similarities or otherwise with our licences ... unless someone more knowledgeable can provide some clarity?

.... and I thought I had a few GWMO shares but now feel like a lightweight !
Nice to know another serious PI rates GWMOs BoD and prospects
APR

From Andrew Webley's Twitter "holding RNS today from me - the % is slightly down due to the warrants (which is positive) & the number of shares is up since the last tr1 due to me buying a load more on the market - hope that helps with any confusion & I am looking forward to the next few months here."

So was 7.05% and 116,846,960 shares RNS 12-Jun-20 refers
Now 4.98% and 125,520,718 shares RNS 3-Nov-20 refers

Thanks chaps can someone share the link please?

Who is Webley exactly? 7.9% to ~5% sale and/or warrant dilution?

Hi Ash,
I've been looking for different ways to value HUM and came up with an All-In MCap/100koz (TM) metric which if the BoD declare 100koz production makes HUM £110m/100koz production with AISC of 1,047 over the last 3 quarters. So assuming todays MCap then everything else being equal might equate to £220k MCap when HUM hits 220koz production. However, I think HUM is also being given zero credit for either Kourossa (no licence) or Dugbe (no resources declared) and probably written down for short LOM at Yanfolila, country risk and still having outstanding debt.

An comparator I use is Pan African Resources (PAF) with MCap £395m for 179.5koz production & AISC $1,147 to end Jun-20 giving an £220m/100koz production (PAF has $60m debt, exploring & extending LOM and operates in S Africa) HOWEVER has several; mines with very long LOM but worse AISC.

Harsh though that maybe as an investor you need to weigh the risks, DYOR and decide if the market is mispricing risk and invest accordingly. HUMs latest presentation gives lots of other peer group comparators and was at the low end of those ... has this changed?
AIMHO APR

... only if there is no growth and a LOT of bad news priced in perhaps?

Now there is an interesting statistic from after market close today!
Does it make any sense?
Go figure

@alyhels I don't think anyone is actually disagreeing with you on the JV front, however my earlier point was it is all about having decent enough resources proven up (ie drilled) so that you can get a decent deal on the JV otherwise you get a JV and give all the upside away which would be pointless for us as GWMO PIs.
APR

All of my portfolio has been hit this week both explorers and producers alike because of the general market jitters and further lockdowns being announced across Europe and now the UK. GWMO is an Explorer and has been hit like the rest and without strong news will fall further which it has, those with recent good news have also fallen but not as far.

@SH Apologies, AAL would not Earn-In to ARC but to a 'JV Project' which would doubtless be setup as a separate legal entity or SubCo of ARC so AAL get no share in ARC to avoid all the problems you outlined. A trap that OMI fell into when it ran out of cash and NewMont stepped in with a chunk of cash for OMI shares in addition to an Earn-In. I need to check but the Zaco and Zamsort SubCo probably hold more than one licence that make up each area so a 'JV Project' could be setup with just the licences that apply to the project area as Zaco & Zamsort are effectively divisible.

It is on this assumption that I base my view as Zaco & Zamsort could easily be split into a number of Projects based around each Tier 1 asset with each being at different stages of development in an ongoing exploration & Development 'pipeline' giving ARC serious optionality going forward especially if it has multiple Tier 1 assets and revenue streams from previous Projects it now receives production revenue from ... a royalty stream if you like.
AIMHO APR

@small_holding My preferred approach is OMI / GGP Earn-In model up to say 65% & a DFS with AAL having 1st refusal at market rates for the balance and/or a JV with AAL as operator as we would then have a revenue stream going forward to fund our exploration rather than having to come back to shareholders each time we need funds.

This approach would set ARC up as an Explorer that can then fund other players projects via Earn-In to produce saleable assets where it has built up value in assets the big players want. Example Pasofino (TSX:VEIN) proving up HUMs Liberian Dugbe gold project for a 49% Earn-In to DFS with no OPEX or CAPEX cost to HUM.

If you look at Orosur Mining (AIM:OMI) they were self-funded explorers until their producing Uruguay mine head grade plummeted, then they were forced into a JV with Newmont /Agnico that came with annual $1m OPEX cash payments to keep them afloat.

The bottom line for me is proving up a resource to DFS can cost serious money which has to come from some where ... I'd rather have 35% of a Tier 1 asset at DFS with near-term (2-3 year) route to revenue with further assets we can prove up and keep 100% than 100% of lots of potential Tier 1 assets sold off cheaply as nothing has been proven up to JORC standard so can be listed on the books as a viable asset and/or borrowed against.
Just guess we need to wait and see
AIMHO APR

Hate to be the one to point out that HUM chart has just completed a strong 'Head and Shoulders' topping out pattern between 23-Mar-20 to 27-Oct-20 which was confirmed 28-Oct-20 when the price broke down through resistance. Top of pattern was @42p and neckline completion at 35.6p implying a downside target of 29.2p which was also the inter-day low of 29-Aug-20 so now should be strong support.

Place your stops with care if you use them to avoid being picked off by the MMs and/or position yourself for a nice 10% trade on the bounce if you have the nerves for it ... assuming we get a bounce that is!

I think we might be in for a bumpy ride next week with more lockdowns being announced today.
AIMHO APR

@cheerful Yes it's surprising what those innocent looking numbers can actually tell you. You do however make a cracking point about LOM and that HUM growth plan depends very heavily on extending the current LOM at Yanfolila otherwise production will be going down not up. Of course we do know HUM actually has a good delivery record to date, but these are very difficult times so nothing is a given.

@yezzerr Yes under those circumstances I was never sure why they stayed as long as they did! Still if foresight was as good as hindsight we'd all be very wealthy

GUN will need to update the market early doors next week with an RNS confirming deal closed or if not what Plan B looks like