Member Info for aprogerson

Summary of what I think we know & why from multiple RNSs, Podcasts, interviews & presentations:
ARCM: http://s2.q4cdn.com/256050873/files/doc_presentations/2020/11/201109-Arc-Minerals-Presentation-NOV-2020.pdf
Mining Weekly: https://m.miningweekly.com/article/zambia-copper-explorer-has-exclusivity-agreement-with-anglo-american-2020-11-08/rep_id:5582?__twitter_impression=true

(1) Exploration Licences = 100% Zambia focused licences namely Zamsort @66% & Zaco @72.5% covering 872 km2 prospective for high grade copper BUT no JRC compliant assets =ARCM 2020 Annual Report
(2) AAL Exclusivity Agreement = 6-month Due Diligence on all licence area data & AAL actively involved in advising ARCM on current ongoing drill programme led by David Wood Discovery Manager, Zambia for AAL. "depending on the outcome of this review, AA has the right to either extend the agreement and/or enter into a commercial transaction for the development of certain or all of the targets on our licenses." =ARCM 2020 Annual Report
(3) Strategy = generate Shareholder value "...we identify, on an opportunistic basis, as many key targets for a partner to come and develop them, either exclusively or jointly with us ... spending $4m to $5m per target." =NvS Intaba interview
(4) Exploration = significant soil sampling and modelling to inform 17km of drilling at cost of $3.5m over 14 stated targets =NvS Intaba interview & RNSs
(5) AAL Knowledge & MO = AAL explored Zambia in 1990s with 9 of their top 30 targets in ARCM licence areas & David Wood is their stated expert in Zambia. AAL are not adverse to taking equity stakes or JVs. =Targets #1 to 7, 11 & 16 Ref: Anglo-Equinox Target Ranking List 1999 ... thanks SH
(6) One or more Tier 1 Cu assets: NvS / ARCM assertion only as have no JORC compliant assets confirmed
(7) Other Interests (multiple RNSs refer):
> Sturec = 1Moz gold mine in Slovakia sold to MetalTech. with rights to further cash subject to JORC uplift results. ASX update http://www.metalstech.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/02301113.pdf
> CASA = JORC compliant 3Moz Akyanga gold mine sold, but retain $5m CLN and 3% NSR to $45m revenue, subject to approach by MEDR with all script offer of £4.56m at circa 26% premium to CLN & 3% NSR retained. Is RTO so will need 65% shareholder approvals

ARCM Options for part or whole of any licence or 'project' within these licences:
(A) Outright or partial sale to one or more 3rd parties
(B) 3rd Party %Earn-In to take project/s to DFS and JORC compliant asset status at no cost/risk to ARCM
(C) 3rd Party Equity stake in ARCM for cash so ARCM can take to DFS and JORC compliant asset status at ARCMs cost/risk
Note: a JV is only viable if meaningful equity stake retained by ARCM post DFS and asset/s are economically viable

I've purposefully tried NOT to add any personal views or comments!
APR

@Fulmar Makes perfect sense and fits with eth model NvS says is his preferred strategy which curiously aligns with best value generation for PIs. I'm crossing everything that he pulls of something that allows AAL to Earn-In for %stake whilst they foot the OPEX and CAPEX to at least DFS. Once at DFS NvS can decide to sell out or let AAL operate and we retain equity share and revenue stream via a JV.

Least risk for Major and no cost to ARC with upside of retained equity stake and production revenue downstream. If AAL don't like at any time then typically JV partner will swap out for someone who does so very flexible. Also for ARC as resoutce/s get proved up then attributed value rises and ARC could even raise debt vs. asset for future investments, exploration and/or production. Even opens up possibility of becoming a streaming company along the lines of Altus Resources (AIM:ALS)
All good from where I'm sitting.
APR

SP Angel analysis is really useful especially as I am already a HUM investor with Yanfolila mine in Mali ... interesting comparisons. I also like the ALS mix of exploration and royalty streaming for an 'engaging' investment with good newsflow.
APR

Just been recommended to check out Altus so will go through RNSs ... any good shortcuts, twitter, presentations et al anyone can point me at?
Also anyone have anything metrics or otherwise for establishing whether Altus is fair value given it has both Royalty streams and is an explorer at Diba, Mali?
APR

Yes, think of a world with copper door handles, handles, stair rails, switches, knobs and knockers plus anything else we touch. Massive vector for virus transmissions removed but lots of lovely copper consumed

In my view this is REALLY simple. By declaring publicly one or more Tier 1 deposits he is upping the pressure on AA to make a decent offer especially as he has also publicly stated there are at LEAST 2 other potential suitors in the wings.

NvS hands have been tied by the EA & associated NDA so he cannot divulge the drilling results irrespective of what he said to us. He used the Intaba platform to effectively declare what we have, this is perplexing as you would also expect an RNS to back it up so he is sailing very close to the 'price sensitive' declaration rules in doing so and he must know that.

This cannot be an accident so you need to decide who is the audience for these remarks? It cannot be AA as they KNOW what is there with 100% access so it must be the shareholders and potential suitors. Breadcrumbs methinks

NvS also stated at Intaba “We’re really going for ideally some sort of commercial relationship with a much larger company that can drill this out as it should be because, truth be told, on any of these 14 targets, we really should be spending $4-million to $5-million per target. It is what I call the butterfly approach; we identify, on an opportunistic basis, as many key targets for a partner to come and develop them, either exclusively or jointly with us,” he added.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/zambia-copper-explorer-has-exclusivity-agreement-with-anglo-american-2020-11-08
AIMHO APR

@ChinaRed MEDR is a quoted company with SP 1.1R @13-Nov-20 so the 1R is a 10% discount. 85m MEDR shares x 1.1R = 93.5mR or £4.56m for CASA plus ARCM still has the 3% NSR in place against future production at 3Moz Akyanga deposit upto $45m.

On the face of it 10% premium isn't that exciting, but the $5m CLN converts to 68.7mR ($1=13.74R) so for some reason MEDR are offering 16.3m R or 23.7% more than necessary plus the 10% discount to MEDR closing SP giving a 26.1% premium.

Maybe my maths is out, but a 26.1% premium into liquid quoted shares and a 3% NSR (upto $45m future revenue) sounds like a good EXIT to me ... more like jam today AND jam tomorrow!
AIMHO APR

We should be at or near end of exploration season at our Nevada licences so I am expecting some news flow:
> Results of planned exploration including new drill targets
> Confirmation of minimum 25t tailings extracted for pilot gold plant
> Confirmation of pilot plant setup and 3rd party contractor to run pilot
Plenty more possible but that would be a good place to start
APR

@scotty Absolutely I just wish they had been better advised and not done the 9:2 consolidation pre-IPO which I was not expecting and completely unnecessary just overly diluting seed investors for no benefit that I can see. Regardless GUN is still its biggest investor Pre-IPO with 8.55% ... I cannot wait to what allocation GUN picks up on IPO.

Still it makes no difference to RIncon's prospects which I think are very bright indeed and I haven't even started to get my head around their other 2x Gold projects at Laverton and Kiwirrkurra.

GUN is an InvestCo with the ability to invest in companies pre-IPO at attractive SP rates via convertible loans (CLNs), warrants and/or shares to reflect the risk of investing in private firms & to realise that investment for a profit at a later date.

Expected transformative news flow in order of impact/proximity Cost from RNSs & NAV figures are my estimates:
(1) Rincon IPO @10-Dec-20 cost=£192.8k & pre-IPO @A$0.20c =£491k @RNS 22/23-Jun-20 & 5-Nov-20
(2a) Malachite (ASX:MAR) option to purchase Kolosori Nickel. Cost= £45k & NAV=£145k (26-Oct-20) @RNS 26-Oct-20
(2b) Malachite (ASX:MAR) option to purchase Sunshine Metals. Cost £240k & NAV=£121 price on close @RNS 21-Aug-20
(3) Sajawin option to purchase Madagascar oil licence (cost £187.5k & NAV=£240k) price confirmed .. await update
(4) Angold IPO (cost/NAV=£165k) @RNS 30-Sept-20
(5) Human Brands IPO and ************** with Rogue Baron (RB) AIM listing & IPO (cost = £498,575) @{RNS 02-Jul-20.
GUN = 23.6% of enlarged shares pre-IPO & if RB NAV = £2,827,305 from HB share X Change then 23.6% = £667.2k pre-IPO
(6) Empress Royalty IPO (cost/NAV=£146k) @RNS 23-Oct-20
(7) Eagle Mining (ASX:EM2) drill campaign & results, cost=£255k for 1.8% of EM2 or £526k value using SP A$0.38c (6-Nov-20) @RNS 14-Oct-20
(8) Djibouti oil licence held by SubCo - status update on way forward and/or exit (cost/NAV=£187.5k )

Sum NAV = £2,688.7k Value of assets, where some are illiquid so difficult to value & others agreed price but subject to a transaction closing or are a listed stock.

Forecast Cash Position: £1,066k now +£500k early Dec-20 +£400k early 2021 (my guess)
Pre todays placing GUN had approx. £500k cash to hand plus .
RNS 13-Nov-20 Placings: target cash proceeds = £1,130,000
> Firm Placing @12-Nov-20 = £566,067 & Conditional Placing: £563,932 subject to GM approval @1-Dec-20
> Transactions due: 2x Malachite & Sajawin for minimum £400k ... await update

Commentary:
GUN MCAP=£2.8m @SP=1.15p. Cash to hand=£1,066k & ignoring £900k due on transactions closing.
IMHO this is an awesome position with minimal down-side at this MCap as it is almost completely covered by the NAV with no upside considered in the MCap plus £1,066k cash for free with £900k cash to come.
Did I mention RIncon IPO on 10-Dec-20 ... interested to know closing price at IPO considering oversubscription.
AIMHO APR

Rincon sits on a number of Pilbara, WA licences prospective for Copper/Gold with near neighbours Greatland Gold, Antipa, Artemis, and Wishbone all vying for the next big thing after Havieron. We know both Antipa and Greatland now have JVs with NCM to feed ore into the giant Telfer facility that currently has less than 4 years LOM and NCM are desperate for new ore source to reduce their low head grade & $1,281 AISC.

Rincon licences had been previously explored by NCM and completed 22km and over 200 holes at Hasties 12km from the Telfer plant with some long, shallow and high grade intercepts.
Gold Intercepts:
o 57.80m @ 2.05g/t Au from 17.40m including;
o 16.10m @ 4.75g/t Au from 42.70m;
o 68.00m @ 1.33g/t Au from 1.00m;
o 36.00m @ 1.66g/t Au from 2.00m;
o 33.20m @ 1.46g/t Au from 25.00m;
o 23.00m @ 2.06g/t Au from 23.00m; and
o 5.00m @ 3.73g/t Au from 50.00m.
Copper intercepts:
o 20.60m @ 1.23% Cu from 87.60m;
o 10.90m @ 3.39% Cu from 91.80m; and
o 4.00m @ 4.84% Cu from 49.00m.

GUN is a strategic investor & has 15.4m shares @ A$0.0166 costing £137.8k or 28.4% of 54.3m pre-IPO shares as RNS 22/23-Jun-20 plus a CLN for A$100k or £54k convertible into shares at 30% discount to IPO strike price RNS 4-Nov-20 refers.
> GUN stated intention to maintain at least 15% holding in Rincon post-IPO (P Ruse podcast) https://www.share-talk.com/peter-ruse-director-gunsynd-plc-gun-l-interview/

IPO & the numbers, it's a bit complicated!
Rincon ASX IPO prospectus: http://www.rinconresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Rincon-Prospectus-FINAL-03-11-20-with-Annexures-Website-Version.pdf
Target IPO on ASX: 10-Dec-2020 at A$0.20c and fund raise for A$5m or $6m ... heavily oversubscribed so will be A$6m
Step (1): Pre-IPO options, CLNs, debts converted to shares & then consolidated on a 9 old for 2 new shares basis. GUN = 4,461,943 'new' shares & no CLN
Step (2) ASX prospectus issued & fundraising heavily oversubscribed so A$6m additional cash to be raised for new shares
Step (3) At A$6m there will be 52,194,536 total 'new' shares giving GUN 8.55% based on existing shareholding
Step (5) GUN will be informed how many shares it has been allocated @SP A$0.20c
Step (6) ~10-Dec-20 Rincon will IPO and everyone will be able to buy shares on the market

Forecast Cash Position: £1,066k now +£500k early Dec-20 +£400k early 2021 (my guess)
Pre todays placing GUN had approx. £500k cash to hand plus .
RNS 13-Nov-20 Placings: target cash proceeds = £1,130,000
> Firm Placing @12-Nov-20 = £566,067 & Conditional Placing: £563,932 subject to GM approval @1-Dec-20
Transactions due: 2x Malachite & Sajawin for minimum £400k ... await update

Commentary: At IPO GUN will hold 8.55% of Rincon so to get to target 15% will need to spend £370k @A$0.20c for a further 6,45% BUT as offer over-subscribed we will not know final % until it is announced. However, after placing GUN now has considerable cash available should it decide to buy on the market at

@TI Simple fact is if those that wanted in still want to get in they will have to buy shares post IPO on the market implying that SP of A$0.20c at opening may not last very long as it is bid up.

No prizes for guessing what the placing funds will be used for ... Rincon, question is how much?

Just going through the numbers of the MEDR deal to acquire CASA mining and in so doing settle the US$5m loan note from CASA to ARC.

Loan Settlement: MEDR are to pay ARC in script of 85m MEDR shares at R1 value per share conversion rate for a nominal US$6.18m (US$5m plus interest perhaps?). As of market close today MEDR SP=1.1R so 85m shares = 93.5m R or £4.56m.

CASA Royalty payment: No mention was made anywhere that I can see of the 3% NSR so the presumption is that that stays for a possible US$45m future revenue stream against MEDR gold production ay Akyanga Gold Project.

So what ? Akyanga is a nominal 3Moz deposit so @3% NSR = US$45m achieved when 750koz Gold produced at $2,000/oz = $1,500m revenue. I'm guessing at least 2 years to build a mine and then another 3-5 years to hit 750koz overall cumulative production before ARC sees all of its US$45m royalties.

Commentary: MEDR RTO of CASA will allow ARC to realise its CLN early as MEDR is a quoted Company in South Africa, but ARC will not be able to sell this all down immediately without crashing MEDR SP so definitely a mixed bag transaction.
AIMHO APR

@volmer Welcome to the BB and yes a number of us are great Pilbara gold fans be it GGP, ARV, WSBN or indeed GUN/Rincon so you are in good company. Have a look through some of my summaries by investment if you haven't already and particularly the cashflow which is always good to keep an eye on with an InvestCo, but rest assured GUN seem to be very well managed.
APR

@Forzeb realistically 0.5p with GWMO 'just' doing what they said they are going to do assuming they can get a small scale proof-of-principal production facility setup and can demonstrate gold recovery from the tailings.

If anything else positive above that then who knows from this very low MCap, but anything above 1p would need positive exploration news to deliver IMHO
APR

My head says 0.5p and my heart says 5p by year end

Gold dropped $100 over the last 2-3 days following the Covid vaccine announcements and now settling back to where it was mid Sept-20 at around $1850 prior support.

My view: the money printing hasn't stopped and the massive central bank balance sheets or negative real interest rates have NOT changed and with aging populations around the world deflation is a real prospect which heavily indebted nations cannot and will not allow to take hold.

Expect more helicopter money, QE, central bank bond purchases, infrastructure investment, debt monetisation, dollar weakness and negative real interest rates ... all support higher Gold, silver & dollar denominated commodity
prices going forward.
AIMHO APR

@Scotty Just been going through Rincon prospectus ... it's HUGE & MASSIVELY detailed with prospectus of 76 pages backed up by a 69 page Independent Due Diligence report. The best bit is the A$0.20c IPO strike Price and A$4-5m fixed range for the associated fund raise with all shareholdings et al laid out in immense detail.

I am very pleased to say Rincon has managed to keep all its licence areas back from the Artemis days totalling some 547sqkm with over 24 linear km along strike from Telfer across its project areas of Hasties + Westin + Dolphy West. In addition Rincon now presents with 2 additional projects that are a very nice bonus.

I'll crunch some numbers later and post back my findings.
APR

@smiller Yes gold has crashed today ... back to what it was errr 5 days ago.
Some perspective needed I think