Member Info for aprogerson

@slipperyslip My strong feeling is Rincon is more like 3x in very short order to £18m to match Wishbone just for starters!

I am expecting strong news flow as they are targeting Hasties MRE by latest Q4 2021 and GGP top slicers to pile into Rincon probably via GUN to drive it from there. Looking very good from where I am sitting.
APR

AAL Due Diligence will be quick as AAL needs to be assured on:
> licence ownership and rights, so AAL are 110% sure who really owns what
> mining and exploration licences and any other legalities surrounding Zambian law pertaining to licences and/or other undeclared 3rd party rights and/or interests that may encumber these licences like historic NSRs et al
> Any pertinent contractual relationships between ARCM and associated 3rd parties, so AAL know what they are getting into
> Background checks on directors to ensure everyone is 'clean' and who is empowered to make decisions so bun fights and/or no risk of reputational issues by association or otherwise for AAL

My expectation is that any and all documentation would have been provided weeks ago at AAL request so this 'stage' would be just a legal formality especially given time of year and proximity to EA end-date .... AAL will not want last minute 'surprises'.

I would also expect that a draft Heads of Terms for any transaction/s would have also been tabled by now and initial scenarios and or horse-trading would be underway. If not then an extension is likely if ARCM see enough in the 'shape' of anything tabled to want to continue with AAL.

If I were driving it that is what I would be expecting anyway as these things take time to put together, discuss, shape and ratify plus lots of moving parts.
AIMHO APR

Rincon (ASX:RCR) IPO should launch on ASX today UK time 23:00 tonight to 05:00 Monday. Not sure if IPOs are delayed or start at ASX open ... either way we will know before Monday AIM open.

@Somerset Agreed Rincon at £5.75m is ludicrously low given its pedigree and being fully funded for 2 years exploration with Hasties MRE in Q4 2021. Rincon will IPO at A$0.20c and I consider A$0.60c as fair value at IPO so if you can pickup any below A$0.50c I think you will do just fine as Rincon has serious multi-bag potential.
APR

@billthebank I've had a go at modelling what might happen but now we know we will have at least 16.5% at IPO helps. The biggest unknown is pure sentiment especially as GGP has been on a tear (23p to 34p or +48%) in the last 2-3 weeks and gold has now broken its recent downtrend to the upside which helps GUNs PM investments in Rincon, Empress Royalty and Eagle Mining.

My 'best' guess is Rincon rises to £18m in short order to match Wishbone (AIM:WSBN) so 16.5% of that is £3m of which 60%+ is already priced into GUNs SP following recent rise to 2.5p from prior peak of 1.5p @22-Sept-20 or put another way MCap £3.8m @254m shares & £500k cash to £9.2m @367m shares following 2-Dec-20 £1.13m Placing albeit to fund Rincon IPO. Additionally residual cash is now £1.63m -£450k Rincon -£200k Low6 = circa £1m.

Doubtless Rincon and GUN SPs will overshoot at upcoming IPO with some pullback inevitable and hopefully settle comfortably above 2.8p or MCap £10m as a new base going forward with £1m cash to play with.
AIMHO APR

Nothing ventured and nothing gained cheers @Setanta
APR

Yes @Swampdonky If you read the LSE RNSs you'll know it was 28.4% pre-IPO, then 8.6% after conversion as part of IPO and now confirmed an additional 4m 'new' Rincon share so GUN will hold 16.5% Rincon when the ASX opens 21-Dec-20 or this Sunday at 11:00 for us in the UK.

@Setanta Yes agreed GWMO and GGP are very different beasts. Still for me for GWMO to do a 'GGP style' 12-Bag would mean a rise from todays £6m to £72m which sounds outrageous, but is more realistic if framed within the the BoDs 500koz to 1500koz exploration target is achieved.

I absolutely accept that processing tailings will not drive a multi-bag event, but once operational will help pay for a lot of exploration and/or help minimise further dilution. However a rise to £20m+ on the back of finding (say) the OMCO extension with another 30koz of high grade gold/silver generating £50/60m revenue via their trial production facility is entirely possible in the the 2021 exploration programme and is one of their stated key targets.

GGP is about bulk lower grade Copper/Gold ore and GWMO is about very high grade Gold/Silver ore in veins so difficult to compare. Time will tell, but as it is in my SIPP I have slightly longer timeframes & possibly different perspective here.
ATB APR

@setanta Absolutely respect your view and decision, but in the nicest possible way hope you are wrong with your GWMO verdict. I took a punt splitting my modest SIPP between 2 prospective explorers one copper and one gold back in Feb-20 ... one turned out not too shabby (GGP) and just waiting on the other to pop in the next 6-8 weeks (ARCM).
Fingers crossed for us both!
ATB APR

@Smiler Fully sympathise. I moved a decent chunk out of GGP when it 12-bagged and invested here with a subsequent Placing to dilute me below a 1% GWMO holding meanwhile GGP marched on ... disappointed? Yes absolutely, but we need to 'own' out decisions and invest accordingly.

I'm staying put as GWMO at £6m MCap is still compelling in my book and it doesn't take a great deal in the current PM market for this to rerate significantly in short order especially if any one of their suspected discoveries is drilled up and proven ... which curiously is their 2021 plan with confirmed £2m funds to execute it.
AIMHO APR

Waiting over ... Santa Ruse has confirmed delivery of 16.5% Rincon at upcoming ASX IPO @21-Dec-20.

In a stunning move by GUN we got an extra 4m Rincon shares at A$0.20c for A$800k or £450k. GUN now holds 8,461,943 of sum 51,336,754 Rincon shares at a pre-IPO value of £931k (A$1 = £0.55GBP) @A$0.20c

Rincon comparables @18-Dec-20:
Rincon = £5.75m & 0-20m barren cover with 220 holes & 24km drill data & lots of mineralisation
WSBN = £18m & 120m barren cover with 2 holes and 300m drill data & no mineralisation to date
GGP= £1,370m & 420m barren cover with lots of holes and 126km drill data & lots of mineralisation

Rincon may aspire to be the next GGP, but to my simple mind everything else being equal AIM is willing to pay at least £18m for Wishbone (WSBN) based on their EM survey, minimal cash and no historic drill results. However considering above summary my expectations for Rincon are much higher.

My Rincon forecast still stands as follows:
> Rincon MCap = £5.75m @IPO ... GUN holds 16.5% at IPO confirmed
> Rincon MCap = £18m (x3 IPO) soon after IPO to match WSBN MCap
> Rincon MCap = £30m (x5.2 IPO) probably 2-3 months after IPO ... think OMI @£35m
> Rincon MCap = £40m+ (x7 IPO) possible 3-6 Months on Rincon 2021 programme news & Hasties drill results

I have previously argued that Rincon should have IPO'd at A$0.6c which I still think is minimum fair value and given GUN has 16.5% Rincon holding confirmed Santa Ruse may even surprise us and purchase more on ASX open ... 20% target perhaps just in time for Xmas?

Whilst I think Rincon SP will jump as forecast it will not take very much for a serious rerate as they crunch the sampling and other historical data early Q1 2021 coupled with 2021 programme progress as per IPO Presentation p20 @ https://www.rinconresources.com.au/

South Telfer Timeline :
> 2021 Q1 South Telfer Mapping & Geophysics
> 2021 Q1/2 infill drilling commencement (Phase 1)
> 2021 Q2/3 South Telfer Drilling (Phase 2)
> 2021 Q4 South Telfer MRE

South Telfer Programme Aims:
? Define Hastie’s Deposit
? Drill Westin Anomaly
? Extend Westin Footprint
? High Resolution Magnetics

Lots to look forward to on Monday open ... remember GGP was 2p back in Mar-20 and 32p today
AIMHO APR

@topsharepick Apologies but you are missing one small fact ... Havieron is under 420m barren cover so they have to drill deep before they find anything. Hasties is under 0-20m of sand with mineralisation from surface whilst nearby Wishbone is under 120m+ barren cover which just adds to upfront drilling time & costs for no benefit.

Anything less than 200m mineralisation is considered shallow and amenable to open pit operation which is far cheaper and quicker to build and extract. In the fullness of time there may well be further mineralisation at depth which if found would be a nice bonus! Great grades at depth are all very interesting ,but only if they are economic, GGP/NCM have had 126km of drilling to date and just released their initial MRE ... that is a LOT of investment. NCM uses homegrown 'block-caving' techniques to work at depth which (I think) it honed with its Cadia mine to improve the economics.

I am absolutely NOT dissing GGP or WSBN, but would much rather have Rincon at IPO with cash to fund to MRE in under 2 years given existing 24km of drill data with little or no barren cover and known high grade mineralisation as risk/reward ratio (in my view) is much better given the relative MCaps.
Rincon = £5.75m & 0-20m barren cover with 220 holes & 24km drill data & lots of mineralisation
WSBN = £18m & 120m barren cover with 2 holes and 300m drill data & no mineralisation to date
GGP= £1,370m & 420m barren cover with lots of holes and 126km drill data & lots of mineralisation
AIMHO APR

@Goingtothe moon LOL I can confirm after 2 rounds of excellent comms and even better good news PLUS delivering on their 2020 programme promises I take back anything vaguely negative I have had to say about GWMO this year ... mostly lack of decent comms TBH.

Fab way to start 2021 programme !
ARB APR

Astonishingly good move by GUN allocated 4m Rincon shares at A$0,20c for A$800k or £450k giving GUN 16.5% at ASX IPO now scheduled for 21-Dec-20.

GUN now holds 8,461,943 of total 51,336,754 Rincon shares at IPO costing a total of £642,750 nominal value at IPO of A$1.7m or £931k (A$1 = £0.55GBP)
APR

@goldworm Well spotted ... genuinely excited

@Slippery If only ... my funds are tied up in my ISA and SIPP so will have to 'make-do' with GUN !

I'd like to see SI Capital do a proper analysis rather than just rehash CCZ presentations et al. Other decent mining brokers can do this and be open about their assumptions on perceived risk, grades, Capex, timescales and so on ... this puts a sensible floor under the MCap and injects some welcome actions points for the BoD to address and hence de-risk on their 'value creation' route map.

Rincon IPO is locked and loaded so just need to sit back and relax. Santa Ruse has at least 8.5% in his stocking and possibly much more as he promised us 15% if we were good boys and girls.

Lest we forget that Rincon will IPO at A$0.20c so MCap £5.75m vs. Wishbone MCap £18m with little cash & historic drill results! An idea of what is possible if everything goes right is nearby GGP now circa £1,200m MCap for its eventual 30% of Havieron and other assets under JV with Telfer based NCM. So plenty of room for Rincon to grow!

In my simple mind everything else being equal AIM is willing to pay at least £18m for Wishbone (WSBN) based on their EM survey, minimal cash and no historic drill results. However considering Rincon already has shallow high grade and long Copper/Gold intercepts plus a 2-year fully funded programme to MRE announced as part of the IPO my expectations are much higher. My Rincon forecast is as follows:
> Rincon MCap = £5.75m @IPO ... heavily over-subscribed, no surprise to anyone except IPO advisors!
> Rincon MCap = £18m (x3 IPO) soon after IPO to match WSBN MCap
> Rincon MCap = £30m (x5.2 IPO) probably 2-3 months after IPO ... think OMI @£35m & GGP @£60m on early results
> Rincon MCap = £40m+ (x7 IPO) possible 3-6 Months on further Rincon news on soil sampling, plan acceleration et al

I think we can all agree that Rincon is in a phenomenal position and should have IPO'd at A$0.6c as I previously argued on this BB (Rincon IPO a scenario?) which I still think is minimum fair value for the IPO.

Given the above I still believe GUN is good value on the basis that it is targeting a 15% holding plus the above scenarios will provide another +50% to +150% boost to GUN in short order with more to follow just based on Rincon. It is entirely possible that the Rogue Baron IPO in H1 2021 (GUN holds approx. 23.6% pre-IPO by my calcs) could do considerably more.
Lots to look forward to ...
AIMHO APR

@AG That's weird I posted the same earlier with a link to HotCopper, obviously LSE didn't like it for some reason!?

@Turbo Sorry I expressed myself badly. The worst assay results were 0.5% copper and Sentinel (FQM) Zambia is profitable at 0.5% albeit at considerable scale. At TBO CCZ have found much higher oxide / sulphide grades up to 28% with the last results showing up to 4.1% all at shallow depth. This implies a much lower average overall, but clearly comfortably ABOVE 0.5% once a realistic pit shell & associated mine plan has been established that will enable them to remove any barren cover as they descend through the open pit.
The key for me is:
> grades are good with some outstanding grades evident
> mineralisation is shallow so open pit very likely ... much cheaper and quicker to build
> Drilling needs to demonstrate grade and continuity along strike to maximise JORC resource & economic viability
> Confirmation of any gold in assays (mentioned Sept-20 RNS) as a potentially valuable by-product skews economics to the upside
APR