Member Info for aprogerson

@geeforce Thank you you made the point I was trying to and I clearly failed
APR

@Scotty Rogue Baron is tricky to evaluate our 29% holding given share X-change with Human Brands so I used the evaluation given in the RNSs. Again we have no information on what the IPO price will be pitched at it is difficult to do more particularly as I have no idea how to evaluate the Shinju Whisky brand which seems to me their prime 'asset'. Other prime brands have gone for some very large figures, but have established supply, distribution et al in place so might be evaluated on forward sales volumes et al.

@PennyDealer I'm not sure what you are actually trying to say unless you want to point us at some stuff we can evaluate for ourselves? RB needs distribution deals to shift the stock assuming that there is a reasonable share of the sales price for supplier (RB) and distributor?
APR

@Peggy If you could put in a good word for me when the MM start giving them out that would be fab!
Until then I'll just await some more funds and add when I can.
APR

@Scotty666 Not quite ... Enterprise NAV = £4.54m (Asset NAV =£3.54m plus £1m cash) of course most of these are at cost 'price' as transformational "liquidity event's" such as IPOs are waiting to go ahead for Angold, Empress Royalty and of course Rogue Baron. This takes no account of any goodwill or intangibles as you would see on a normal set of accounts as we have no info to go on. The bit we could have a shot at is 'Opportunity' or 'Sentiment' value but then that is quite subjective so I have avoided.

I'm guessing you are suggesting we take (SP*ENAV)/MCap = (2.05)*(£4.54m)/(£7.52m) = 1.24p covered by NAV and cash? I'm not sure what this tells us as we do not know what GUN will do with the £1m cash or what the 3x IPOs will do in the next 4-10 weeks or indeed what Rincon will do when the ASX confusion lifts over the RUR ticker debacle. Again that also depends whether you bought at 1p or are yet to take a position.

These are my 'best guesstimates' based in all info to date issued in various RNSs ... I never said this stuff was easy and always happy to be shot down if I've made a mistake or someone has better info !
AIMHO of course APR

Updated post from 13-Nov-20 following recent RNS portfolio update, todays Rincon IPO and Peter Ruse PODcast https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/12/gunsynd_december-21-2020/ with 3x IPOs (Angold, Rogue Baron & Empress Royalty) due very soon.

GUN is an InvestCo with the ability to invest in companies pre-IPO at attractive SP rates via convertible loans (CLNs), warrants and/or shares to reflect the risk of investing in private firms & to realise that investment for a profit at a later date.

Updated position & expected news flow in order of impact/proximity Cost from RNSs & NAV figures are my estimates:
(1) Rincon (ASX:RUR) IPO: cost=£642.5k for 16.89% of Rincon or 8.46m shares & @A$0.305c =£1.4m @21-Dec-20 https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/rcr/ Rincon cash = £3.8m & 3x projects fully funded over 2-year programme
(2) Angold TSXV IPO: cost/NAV=£107k @RNS 30-Sept-20 for 462,500 shares @C$0.40c or 1.14%. IPO expected late Dec-20
(3) Rogue Baron (RB) ACQUIS IPO: cost = £498,575 @RNS 02-Jul-20. PR confirmed GUN hold for circa 29% and IPO underway expected in next few weeks. If RB NAV = £2,827,305 from HB share X Change then 29% = £820k pre-IPO.
(4) Empress Royalty TSXV IPO: cost/NAV=£146k for 1m shares @C$0.25c. @RNS 23-Oct-20. IPO underway expected early 2021 following C$8m capital raise.
(5) Sajawin: option to purchase Madagascar oil licence (cost £187.5k & NAV=£240k) price confirmed .. await update
(6) Eagle Mining (ASX:EM2): cost=£255k for 2.56m shares or 1.8% of EM2 @RNS 14-Oct-20. NAV=£537k value using SP A$0.415c (21-Dec-20)
(7) Pacific Nickel (ASX:PNM): purchased Kolosori Nickel Cost= £45k @RNS 26-Oct-20 and Sunshine Metals Cost £240k @RNS 21-Aug-20. Pacific Nickel capital raise @A$0.05c ... not clear exact GUN residual holding but max. £100k NAV assumed
(8) Djibouti oil licence held by SubCo - status update on way forward and/or exit (cost/NAV=£187.5k )

Forecast Cash Position: approx. £1m confirmed by PR on PODcast @21-Dec-20 plus Sajawin transactions due for minimum £240k subject to transaction update.

Enterprise NAV = £4.54m (NAV=£3,537.5k plus £1m cash) Note: Illiquid assets difficult to value & others at agreed price, but subject to a transaction closing, forthcoming IPO or are a listed stock. NB: NAV is very conservative figure if pre-IPO.

Commentary:
GUN MCAP=£7.3m @SP=2p. Cash to hand=£1m & ignoring £240k due on Salawin transaction closing.

Clearly there is a LOT going on right now with Rincon IPO last night and stunning 52.5% rise to A$0.305c with my near term target being A$0.6c to match Wishbone (AIM:WSBN) £18m MCap. Santa Ruse's PODcast today confirmed £1m cash at bank (my estimate spot on) and 3 more IPOs in the pipeline in the next few weeks that will enable the (very) conservative NAV figure to reflect a liquid price at IPO.
AIMHO APR

@newtothisgame Nicely played ... todays pullback on AIM following last nights ASX listing debacle for Rincon due to the RUR ticker problem is a gift to UK investors given Peter Ruse just confirmed on his PODcast that it was 5x oversubscribed with Rincon's A$6m stock offering snapped up in a few hours at the pre-IPO capital raise.

Given the IPO listing problems Rincon's 52.5% rise on IPO is to say the least encouraging but @A$0.305c is still way below my A$0.60c estimate of fair value so I think it has plenty to room to run from here.

@Burton Thanks & nice to see my Peter Ruse "Santa Ruse" nickname got a mention on todays PODcast
https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/12/gunsynd_december-21-2020/

It looks like Santa Ruse has some more "presents" in the pipeline for the next few weeks ...
APR

@Volmer agreed I gave up last night trying to find an ASX link to the 'new' Rincon or indeed any discussion on its IPO day. Check https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/rcr/ for all available documents and very little else ... almost complete silence pre-IPO and at IPO so still very much under the radar and a 52.5% day 1 bounce!

So Rincon IPO'd on ASX last night & all ASX documents can be found here under ASX:RCR ticker & includes updated Corporate presentation: https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements

Key things to know:
> Price: IPO opening price was A$0.20c MCap £5.75m and market closed up 52.5% at A$0.305c MCap £8.6m.
> GUN shares: @IPO = 16.89% of Rincon or 4.46m shares of 51.34m available
> Top 20 shareholders have a combined 57.23% so closely held
> IPO raised A$6m for Rincon so holds A$6.8m cash at IPO for a funded 2-year programme across 3x projects
1) Hasties & Westin: 524km2 licence areas prospective for Copper & Gold @p22-24
2) Laverton: 48km2 licence areas prospective for Gold @p25-26
3) Kiwirrkurra: 126km2 licence areas prospective for Copper & Gold @p26-27

Primary focus is on Hasties & Westin with near neighbours Greatland Gold, Antipa, Artemis, and Wishbone all vying for the next big thing after Havieron. We know both Antipa and Greatland now have JVs with NCM to feed ore into the giant Telfer facility that currently has less than 4 years LOM and NCM are desperate for new ore source to reduce their low head grade & $1,281 AISC (ref p12 NCM FY2020 results presentation @https://www.newcrest.com)

The Hasties & Westin projects have been previously explored by NCM with 22km+ drilled and over 200 holes at Hasties 12km from the Telfer plant with some long, shallow and high grade intercepts as follows:.

Gold Intercepts:
o 57.80m @ 2.05g/t Au from 17.40m including;
o 16.10m @ 4.75g/t Au from 42.70m;
o 68.00m @ 1.33g/t Au from 1.00m;
o 36.00m @ 1.66g/t Au from 2.00m;
o 33.20m @ 1.46g/t Au from 25.00m;
o 23.00m @ 2.06g/t Au from 23.00m; and
o 5.00m @ 3.73g/t Au from 50.00m.

Copper intercepts:
o 20.60m @ 1.23% Cu from 87.60m;
o 10.90m @ 3.39% Cu from 91.80m; and
o 4.00m @ 4.84% Cu from 49.00m.

> Revised 2021 programme & Timeline:
(A) South Telfer Timeline : Unchanged
> 2021 Q1 South Telfer Mapping & Geophysics
> 2021 Q1/2 infill drilling (Phase 1)
> 2021 Q2/3 South Telfer Drilling (Phase 2)
> 2021 Q4 South Telfer MRE

(B) South Telfer Programme Aims:
? Define Hastie’s Deposit
? Drill Westin Anomaly
? Extend Westin Footprint
? High Resolution Magnetics

Other materials:
> DL facebook post & his views on GUN & Rincon strategic shareholding @13-Sept-20 https://t.co/JqKcxNoSQ1?amp=1
> DL Proactive Investors @21-Sept20 GGP, Artemis and GUN (from 08:00/11:00) https://t.co/14NX6hdyrj?amp=1
> Peter Ruse Podcast @5-Oct-20 https://www.share-talk.com/peter-ruse-director-gunsynd-plc-gun-l-interview/

I hope and new and existing PIs find this useful
APR

ASX listing announcement lodged on Friday 18-Dec-20 for RUR says 12:00 21-Dec-20 so anytime nowish then

... and its the 'old' ones pricing LOL

Found the 'new' RUR ticker at least = RINCON RESOURCES LIMITED 20.0¢ 0.00%

@Scotty666 gets his first post in on RUR IPO on HotCopper !
"IPO at 20cents; subscription was heavily oversubscribed & register looks tight.
Expecting a very strong first day of dealing"

.... RUR Rincon Resources Pty not to be confused with RUR Rincon Resources Limited ... can't make this stuff up!

@Chisler Silver is 5x Beta of Gold so $200-$300/oz pencilled in when it pops. Funny GWMO historic licence Silver grades are fantastic ... another good reason for why I invested!

Agreed someone once said that the Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!

@Amro Everyone keeps getting confused with RINCON LITHIUM at 87c ... check as no price given until it IPOs and only then it becomes a listed stock

@scotty Yes but only partially agree. Will need time to rerun NAV et al but in essence GUN has been trading at NAV for months even ignoring cash. Sentiment or rather 'Goodwill' on any of its investments was just not apparent as it was all sat at 'cash costs' only. I think with Rincon and probably with Rogue Baron in the coming months that this will change as we are already seeing with Rincon.
IMHO APR

If the EA with AAL had finished and was being extended this would be price sensitive information and would be notified to the market via a RNS which has not happened so we are still operating under the EA.

Mr Market may have wildly different ideas of course!

@legin repeated from yesterday ... I try to be conservative and 'level-headed'
I've had a go at modelling what might happen but now we know we will have at least 16.5% at IPO helps. The biggest unknown is pure sentiment especially as GGP has been on a tear (23p to 34p or +48%) in the last 2-3 weeks and gold has now broken its recent downtrend to the upside which helps GUNs PM investments in Rincon, Empress Royalty and Eagle Mining.

My 'best' guess is Rincon rises to £18m in short order to match Wishbone (AIM:WSBN) so 16.5% of that is £3m of which 60%+ is already priced into GUNs SP following recent rise to 2.5p from prior peak of 1.5p @22-Sept-20 or put another way MCap £3.8m @254m shares & £500k cash to £9.2m @367m shares following 2-Dec-20 £1.13m Placing albeit to fund Rincon IPO. Additionally residual cash is now £1.63m -£450k Rincon -£200k Low6 = circa £1m.

Doubtless Rincon and GUN SPs will overshoot at upcoming IPO with some pullback inevitable and hopefully settle comfortably above 2.8p or MCap £10m as a new base going forward with £1m cash to play with.
AIMHO APR