Member Info for aprogerson

@slippery Not sure I agree its a double-bottom as GUN is still in a strong uptrend albeit 'resting' in a consolidation pennant pattern as I mentioned yesterday. If this breaks convincingly to the upside above 1.75p then I'd expect very strong rise to the upside very quickly ... think 'coiled spring'

Recent Price Action seems to have established 2x clear channel uptrends and we are in the lower of the 2 roughly 1.5p lower threshold and 2.1p upper threshold. If the upper threshold can be breached this will establish as support and then upper channel upper threshold is currently around 2.7p albeit that will rise over time as long as lower channel lower threshold remains intact.

Note: Mid channel trendline formed at end-of-day close 6-May-20 and 22-Sept-20. Lower channel lower threshold parallel off that through bottom daily close on 30-Oct-20 and 3-Nov-20. Upper channel upper limit formed by parallel off highs for 9 & 18-Dec-20... channels and constructed really clean and Price Action has followed these well.
AIMHO APR

Morning @slippery If you do a transfer of ISA and stock then ii were indicating 4-6 weeks from HL. I just sold down my ISA stocks from HL and settled on T+2 basis so 2 days to clear cash to ISA and then transferred cash to my bank and then onto II which I did the following day.

The problem comes when your ISA is over £20k value and/or your remaining ISA allowance won't allow you to move it to cash and back to another ISA without breaching ISA limits. In which case you could do a partial transfer via cash now and then wait for the balance to transfer over in 4-6 weeks ... speak to ii they were quite helpful.
... not ideal but those are your options it seems!
AIMHO APR

Confident Price Action this morning and initially dropped to fill the gap on the daily chart and now continuing into teh afternoon with a steady rise.

Will be interesting to see if we finish up and/or revisit support at 0.265p to (re)confirm before continuing up.
AIMHO APR

Excellent update from BH https://t.co/fbPiZggsbZ?amp=1 particularly around:
> Reaffirmed initial metal pour was 31-Dec-2020 !
> possible early start to exploration & survey activities as weather is clear, no snow and mild temperatures otherwise late Mar-2021 as we surmised for drilling start
> Confirmation that light pickup truck based drilling rig identified for MJ drilling
> Confident responses around a small commercial plant being established at Marietta base & end March timeframe for design of such based on lab results et al underway
> Confirmation that 25t MJ Tailings materials still being processed offsite for metal recovery

So it looks like all system go on all fronts ... just what we wanted to hear!
APR

Great Western Mining @mining_great 4 Jan
“...Pouring first #gold and #silver is a significant event for our company and we are very pleased to have met our stated objective for 2020. We are well funded for our current requirements...”

Brian Hall, Chairman

...my favourite tweet of the year so far ... and there is a LOT of year to go as GWMOs 2021 Accelerated Exploration Programme gets underway. Well funded = £2m cash at bank for a £8m MCap Junior Explorer = very good position as basis for growth in Shareholder value

Andrew Webley twitter comment from 5-Jan-21
"Pretty impressive volume again on #GWMO - if the placing shares are not all "re-homed" by now it won't be much longer - some really good buys coming in so looks like the market maybe finally waking up to the progress over the last 12 months & the potential for the next 12 months."

IMHO SP is now moving freely again so looks like Placing shares have been churned which is good news. Just the warrants to go and they are a win-win for GWMO cash at bank anyway.
APR

We also had the 20-day MA break the 50-day MA when the Price broke out earlier in the week and the 20-day MA is now due to break the 100-day MA all of which is remarkably bullish for the SP.

@hertstrader Volume on 5-Jan-21was 178m and the movement up on recent days was on low volumes which indicates SP is free to move again. If we can flush the warrants out then that is win-win as it puts more money in the GWMO bank for the upcoming 2021 accelerated programme.

Interesting todays rise has been on relative modest volumes especially compared with our 2x big rises on 29-Dec-20 and 5-Jan-21 which were both very high volume days. Will be interesting to see if we get some more warrants flushed out as confidence returns to the share as reflected in recent days positive Price action.

Modest after hours buy at 0.29p printed ... maybe more to follow?
07-Jan-21 16:31:25 0.29 200,000 Buy* 0.27 0.28 580.00

Nice end of day close at 0.275p after Price gapping up from 0.265p at 16:00 today. I'd now expect we retest 0.265p as support tomorrow morning and some consolidation above 0.265p which would be very healthy indeed as doubtless PIs return to the share and/or slice as appropriate.

Next resistance 0.355p from prior high @20-Oct-20
APR

@maqsood You're right we have tested i0.26p resistance but we need to close above 0.26p to confirm it and then I'd expect it to be retested given Placing and recent long consolidation. In fact I'd prefer it to be retested sooner rather than only return to it later. Whatever the details Price Action has been very positive.
IMHO APR

After early Dec-20 Placing at 0.2p we have had a couple of weeks moving sideways between 0.2p and 0.215p. On 29-Dec-20 we finally broke & closed above the 0.215p resistance level on the daily chart and retested this the following day confirming 0.215p as support going forward.

Between 29-Dec-20 and 5-Jan-20 Price has now formed a pennet and tried to break out to the upside on 4-Jan-21 and was rejected, however on the 5-Jan-20 it broke out again and was confirmed yesterday as market closed at 0.25p. As this was not above prior breakout I was fully sure but market has today opened above this so as long as we close above 0.25p that should be confirmation enough and will establish 0.245p pennet top as support going forward.

Next resistance 0.265p or 62.8% Fib retracement from prior 0.39p high on 20-Oct-20 and 0.185p low on 2-Nov-20
AIMHO APR

HUMs Q4 results should are due to land shortly as 2019 results RNS was 14-Jan-2020. This should 'answer' some of my valuation anomalies and/or show a route map to resolution for others.
ATB APR

I think we can all agree that this is the case on both absolute and in relative terms to HUMs peers as pointed out by HUM themselves on their presentation, Stockopedia &The Times Business section to name but a few. Lots of us are also invested in other PGM producers and explorers that have seen their MCaps soar albeit every Co. has different dynamics.

Put bluntly HUM valuation has a number of discrepancies:
> Yanfolila LOM is currently has limited years to run BUT is being extended just not confirmed
> Dugbe valuation estimate £50-75m is not reflected in HUMs SP
> Bunkerhill holding of 4.6% not reflected in SP
> Yanfolila ROM grade low due to adverse conditions but recovery not yet reported, so discounted off SP
> Kouroussa project awaits licence, until granted 'value' unlikely to be reflected in HUM SP
> Q3 AISC is very high but can be brought down by $100-$150 over 2021. Await Q4 results and revised guidance for 2021
> 2020 guidance very unlikely to be met and market not happy about it
> Recent Mali coup still weighing on SP, but sentiment and current 'discount' will clear over time
> Sentiment and hence 'value' of Dugbe and Kouroussa will increase as confidence in resources increase and proximity to possible production decreases
> HUM has debt (not a lot) but market not giving HUM credit for this
> HUM strong free cashflow being used to fund Yanfolila LOM extension and Kouroussa. I believe both are factored into
AISC so seen as a negative.
> Dugbe funded CAPEX & OPEX to DFS by Pasofino for 49% of project and market ambivalent

In summary HUM looks to be priced as high-risk single-asset producer in a dodgy location with limited LOM at its only producing mine and can't be trusted to do what it says so is valued accordingly.

The market (in my view) has set a very low bar going into 2021 for HUM to over-perform against given what we know is coming down the line. Personally I think this makes HUM a compelling investment opportunity and have invested accordingly. HUM now need to DEMONSTRATE these things have be resolved for a series of rerates to kick in.
AIMHO APR

Putting this REALLY simply GWMO could significantly surprise to the upside very quickly indeed as they have shown that the gold/silver mineralisation is amenable to relatively low CAPEX type processing via small scale plant and because it is very high grade and shallow it would require low OPEX to extract the ore.

Put together could make a relatively modest volume operation viable quite quickly if they find high grade vein type mineralisation near surface which curiously is what the areas historical mines on GWMOs licences are known for.
AIMHO APR

LOL @mcadder snap!

@Saudio The only possible comparison between GWMO and GGP is if GWMO multi-bags somewhere between 10x and 15x over a 10 month period as GGP did from March last year when it was around SP of 2p otherwise there is not a lot in common between the two as you point out.

GWMO is £8m MCap @0.25p today so would need to reach £120m @3.75p by end of Oct-2021 ... which as a shareholder would be lovely, but in my view would need the GWMO 2021 exploration and drilling programme to being proving things up very quickly including positively locating the OMCO mine extension. The fact that we had a small scale gold/silver production facility would make little difference to the valuation without a decent source of gold/silver ore as tailings are 'interesting' but not truly transformational in the same way as a shallow high grade gold/silver vein would be.

There are in fact lots of differences between GWMO and GGP:
> GWMO gold and silver is very high grade & near surface/shallow whilst GGPs Gold and copper is low grade & between 420m and 1.3km underground
> GGP has no production facility but will rely on NCM Telfers HUGE processing facility as it will need to process LOTS of ore to get at the metal
> GWMO with modest amounts of high grade ore and a small production facility could be surprisingly profitable ... OMCO was 35kt of ore historically for 35koz gold (@$1,900 = £48.5m)(@$25/oz = £620k) or about £50m revenue at todays metal prices

Food for thought
AIMHO APR

@slippery Just moving my ISA funds over to ii from HL to get Rincon exposure direct but liquidating stocks takes 2-3 days then up to 8 days to get your money back in your bank . Luckily you can setup another ISA while you wait for the funds to be available and do-it-yourself. The SIPP is an entirely different matter and FSA advises providers to complete all client transfers within 4 weeks ... curiously HL are taking approximately 6 weeks which is pretty poor. I find this interesting as I just did a partial transfer into my HL SIPP and this took just around 3 weeks and that was over Xmas!

Looks like my SIPP will stay with GUN and my ISA can take on Rincon directly once my HL ISA funds get returned.
IMHO APR

@mcadder thanks, video made me laugh