Member Info for aprogerson

From yesterday after market close about £100k buys ...
13-Jan-21 16:19:26 3.77 500,000 Buy* 3.60 3.80 18.85k O
13-Jan-21 16:01:39 3.709 500,000 Buy* 3.60 3.80 18.55k O
13-Jan-21 16:24:20 3.77 192,323 Buy* 3.60 3.80 7,251 O
13-Jan-21 17:06:41 3.70 1,503,452 Buy* 3.60 3.80 55.63k O

@Trricky Good for you 13 years (or so) is a hell of a milestone. Makes my holding of 5/6 years since Sturec days look like a Johny-Come-Lately
ATB APR

13-Jan-21 08:00:58 4.50 2,491,000 Sell* 4.80 5.10 112.10k O
13-Jan-21 17:06:59 4.95 1,368,700 Buy* 4.80 5.10 67.75k O
The 08:00 trade is defo a Buy but as posted at after hours price shows as a sell ... very cheeky.

@TVS If you haven't seen this before have a look at How To Value a Mining Stock https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf Pages 14, 15 and 17 will set the scene with p17 laying out valuation principles linked to JORC code compliant resource 'journey' when proving up a prospect into a resource.

Bottom line is explorers add 'value' by proving up resource and improving 'confidence' that resource is there, metallurgy, how much, how deep and at what ore grade. Unfortunately Explorers need cash to fund drilling so tap us poor PIs unless they have a revenue stream via production which would derisk things for us investors and avoid/minimise dilution.
Sorry if preaching to the converted!
APR

@rocktapper Really good find especially interesting looking at the maps and near neighbours from another Explorers viewpoint just to confirm we are not imagining things!

@daviddune An early & very happy retirement comes to mind if £800m was realised

@TVS I get where you are going but Mining companies get valued on AISC (costs), price of gold/silver and production quantity of said resources. Same resource at depth and or low grade is worth much less than higher grade at shallow depth due to extraction and/or processing costs. Have a look at comparable single asset mining companies in safe jurisdictions, but £150m MCap/100koz production per annum would be a good place to start assuming $1,000 AISC & $1,800 gold price .... this varies wildly company to company depending on their circumstances.

Possible metal in the ground is all very interesting and can be valued from $20/oz upwards depending on confidence. So $20/oz for 500Moz at low confidence =£8m MCap ... as confidence of scale, grade, depth and geochemistry improves so will the valuation, then add in small scale production on top and things get very interesting very quickly.
AIMHO APR

My fag packet valuation calculation & logic is as follows:
Assumptions:
> ARCM fully diluted shares = 1,300m
> ARCM licence ownership Zaco = 66% & Zamsort = 72.5% so assume 70% as estimate
> ARCM divest and/or JV 1x Tier 1 asset and retain balance for further exploration & proving up at later date
> FQM pays US$260m/£205m for Kiwara/Sentinel in 2009 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kiwara-first-quantum/first-quantum-buys-kiwara-for-260-million-idINTRE5AM3Y220091123
> Sentinel grade = 0.51% Copper and ARCM probably above 0.65% so minimum 30% better ... my guess
> Copper 2009 = $5,164 avg and Copper 2021 = $8,000 https://www.statista.com/statistics/533292/average-price-of-copper/
> Valuation of mining companies https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf

£Values for non-producing assets will be based on market comparable sales such as Sentinel aka Kiwara (Sentinel) for £205M when 2009 copper average was $5,164 and now $2,830 or 55% higher. If deal was profitable and economic then it would be much more so now. FQM spent $2.4B capital on Sentinel to build, if AAL can leverage existing plant then build cost & timescale comes right down increasing 'value' to AAL.
Comparable valuation: £205m (FQM buys Sentinel 2009) x 30% better ARCM grades (lower costs) at 55% better Copper price (more profit/ton) = £410m

SP & MCap Contributions & Calcs:
> Production: Kalaba facility once up & running =5p or £50m MCap ... 6-9 month timescale
> Balance licences: after divesting 1x Tier 1 asset =5p or £50m MCap ... now
> Asset Sale: divest and/or JV 1x Tier 1 asset @£410m x70% share =22p or £287m MCap ... 2-6 months timescale
Sum of parts = 32p over next 2-9 month timeframe

Apologies, really Noddy I know but happy to be shot down and cut-to-shreds especially as I am not certain Kiwara asset size/grade detail that was known at time of FQM purchase compared with ARCM now.
AIMHO APR

PX looking to retest 5p this afternoon which if we can close above should then establish as support going forward. Next resistance 5.7p from Jul-2018.
APR

@tones agreed on all points I fully expect the 2-3 weeks newsflow to be key to address prior sentiment towards HUM and reframe their prospects as Dugbe and Kouroussa news becomes the focus and not production figures!

Position taken ... now for HUM to reset expectations!
APR

@westie Yes he is probably feeling very 'Blue' just like us!

@vauch My 'heart' 100% agrees but my 'head' has crunched the numbers and applied a huge discount until more evidence via the upcoming exploration & drilling programme is made available.

My head also supposes that we will have a viable small scale production plant within the next 6 months that can be used to process tailings and/or our own gold/silver ore. Once a viable vein has been located the SP will do what we all know it is capable of as we know from historic production records that it is likely to be very high grade.

Unfortunately for us PIs, patience is required while the fully funded 2021 Programme plays out ... I think the next 6 months will be instructive!
AIMHO APR

Lots of 250k trades coming through ...

@F29 ARCM are in an incredibly strong position now thanks to NvS namely:
> For 'sale': At least 1 Tier 1 high-grade Copper asset
> Licences: Zambian based Zamsort @66% & Zaco @72.5% covering 872 km2 prospective copper & Cobalt
> AAL Sitrep: technical analysis and DD complete with further 180-day period for commercial negotiations
> Cash & Credit: £2m cash from II & balance £294k on CLN credit line still available
> Institutional Investors: Hargreave Hale Ltd @5.5% holding RNS 12-Jan-21
> Revenue: Kalaba small scale Copper production facility proven up for future revenue stream if required
> Other cash: Sturec mine & Metaltech JORC upgrade triggering possible cash payment to ARCM and CASA with $5m CLN and 3% NSR to $45m ... possible sources of future cash/revenue

Whatever is said on this BB about possible valuations, timeframes, deal type (with or without AAL) or whatever my analysis tells me I know for 99.99% certainty that the current £47m MCap is wholly inadequate. The ONLY issue is now how long anyone wants to wait for their ROI.
AIMHO APR

@AIMtodeath Strong suspicion that it is a combination of LTH cashing out on todays rise and strong demand for new entrants to take a position ahead of any announcement on future transaction between AAL and ARCM on 1 or more assets.

Personally I've been in 'waiting' for 6 years for this to come good so firmly sat on my hands ... another 1-6 months months makes no difference as my shares are held in SIPP and ISAs.

Price gapped up and crucially back above bottom of uptrend support at 4.2p (established 14-Aug-20 @3.65p) and briefly touched uptrend support channel top and long term high of 5p in early trading.

Big question now is what does the SP while we wait with no new information to go on other than some sort of deal likely in next 180 days?
AIMHO APR

Best guess £400m valuation for Fwiji only as ARCM should retain %stake and run as JV .... cannot see anything below £200m as being remotely credible

My favoured approach/outcome = Partial sale and/or JV with cash/revenue to prove up retained assets over time to deliver max shareholder value.
... why give up least developed and/or understood assets for low valuation now?

fantastic news!

@leathal I wouldn't worry too much about your 0.28p buy-in price unless you are looking for a quick turnaround!

IMHO the real price action will come with a confirmed discovery as the tailings operation is the icing on the cake to generate short-term revenue prior to 'proper' production from a confirmed in-ground resource.

Myself and others have repeatedly stated that at £8m MCap it only takes one of GWMO targets to be drilled and proved up for the SP to move considerably ... It is also worth pointing out that GWMOs SP is quite volatile again due to the low MCap so try not to let it phase you!
APR