Member Info for aprogerson

Stunning Price Action over the last few days closing today at SP 6.15p comfortably above prior high of SP 5.7p from Jul-2018 and hopefully acting as support going forward as LTH perhaps exit or top-slice and new PIs come onboard.

I am expecting some consolidation, but given the recent PX, but it is difficult to say whether that will be in the new price channel of 5.6/6.2 or above 6.2p with what is current resistance becoming the new support.

The last 2 days trading since the further AAL announcement have generated volume of 136.5m (79m today & 57.5m yesterday) compared with 98.3m when the AAL EA was originally announced Jul-2020 ... remarkable given the recent placing to HH enlarged the ARCM share base by 57m shares to 1,037m shares overall or put another way 13% of ARCM shares have been traded in the last 2 days.
AIMHO APR

@TSP I'm with you there on the mixed approach. Why would ARCM sell everything to AAL in a deal given the ARCM licences stretch to 872 km2 prospective Copper & Cobalt? If AAL want one of our Tier 1 assets that could be 20km2 leaving the remaining 852km2 to further explore for possible future sales and/or push on with the 'in-house' copper production from our own ore to generate a decent revenue stream to fund future exploration?

Wash & repeat ... sounds like a great future cash positive, shareholder value generating business strategy to me!
APR

@Troajan Interesting article. What will be very interesting for ARCM is when MCap starts to tick over £100m and more II's will want a share of the pie at what must be a mouth-watering price to them given the potential upside. It's worth noting that they often have trouble with smaller companies as they do not want to take large %holdings and/or limits on MCaps before they can get involved.

@MrP I'm not too worried about a future placing as current drill / exploration programme is fully funded.
We know the Big One results are (to say the least) encouraging plus if Arya 2x shallow and deep targets produce the results we expect then any placing will be at a much, much higher SP reducing dilution and also derisking CCZ considerably.
Looking good from where I am sitting
ATB APR

@MrP I can see the proving up of the Mkushi prospect given what they know about it as a straightforward sale or JV with SYG as they have all the infrastructure already in place so the marginal cost of extending their Life Of Mine is negligible.
Nice source of cash and/or revenue for CCZ

@phoebus I've checked and YOP is still only a project with a whitepaper as I understand it hence no listing for the tokens on any exchange.

... or was it Pires investment in YOP crypto ? They don't seem too sure themselves but Zak Mir thinks it was Low6.

@Cliffedge Awesome post ... really interesting!

@camkite Absolutely agree ... how much ore, at what expected grade, how to process (new plant or ship elsewhere?) and what discount to apply given the uncertainty/risk. Suspect worth a 'bit' more than current MCap !

@Camkite Yes I had looked at Kansanshi but as you say it has already had capital plant built and is producing so I did not consider it a sensible 'comparison' for valuation purposes whereas Sentinel was pre mine build and US$2.4B spend by FQM.
I could be wrong and I'm sure they would be a way to work it out but beyond my expertise!
APR

You only need look what is happening to ARC Minerals (AIM:ARCM) with the announcement that a 'transaction' with AAL is now being actively progressed.

Link to Zamare Minerals diagram of licence areas and proximity of ARCM to existing large Sentinel and Enterprise Copper mines. CCZ licences I believe are nearer Lumwana but I believe the 'Copper frenzy' is just getting going!
https://www.zamareminerals.com/s/34/ntambu-licence

If anyone is uncertain why we keep on mentioning FQM Sentinel mine as a 'valuation comparable' the diagram from Zamare Minerals (Apologies I forgot who shared the link yesterday!) from their website showing their adjoining licence area and the proximity of both the Sentinel and Enterprise mines in Zambia should help ... they are about 40km away from ARCM licence areas!
https://www.zamareminerals.com/s/34/ntambu-licence

Apologies for reposting from yesterday but I've seen lots of figures banded around since, but not related to reality of Sentinel sale in 2009, prevailing copper price or ARCM assets in particular.

The crux of ANY valuation & hence value to ARCM will be:
(1) Attributed full £value of assets included in any transaction with AAL
(2) Shape of deal ... outright sale, JV and/or AAL shareholding in ARCM affecting how much of that full value accrues to ARCM post transaction
(3) Any discount applied to 'full' value if taken in cash now vs. asset/risk sharing going forward
(4) Any premium AAL will pay to secure asset/s due to synergies with current operations et al

My fag packet valuation calculation & logic is as follows:
Assumptions:
> ARCM fully diluted shares = 1,300m
> ARCM licence ownership Zaco = 66% & Zamsort = 72.5% so assume 70% as estimate
> ARCM divest and/or JV 1x Tier 1 asset and retain balance for further exploration & proving up at later date
> FQM pays US$260m/£205m for Kiwara/Sentinel in 2009 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kiwara-first-quantum/first-quantum-buys-kiwara-for-260-million-idINTRE5AM3Y220091123
> Sentinel grade = 0.51% Copper and ARCM probably above 0.65% so minimum 30% better ... my guess
> Copper 2009 = $5,164 avg and Copper 2021 = $8,000 https://www.statista.com/statistics/533292/average-price-of-copper/
> Valuation of mining companies https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf

£Values for non-producing assets will be based on market comparable sales such as Sentinel aka Kiwara (Sentinel) for £205M when 2009 copper average was $5,164 and now $2,830 or 55% higher. If deal was profitable and economic then it would be much more so now. FQM spent $2.4B capital on Sentinel to build, if AAL can leverage existing plant then build cost & timescale comes right down increasing 'value' to AAL.

Comparable valuation: £205m (FQM buys Sentinel 2009) x 30% better ARCM grades (lower costs) at 55% better Copper price (more profit/ton) = £410m

SP & MCap Contributions & Calcs:
> Production: Kalaba facility once up & running = minimum 5p or £50m MCap ... 6-9 month timescale
> Balance licences: after divesting 1x Tier 1 asset = minimum 5p or £50m MCap
> Asset Sale: divest and/or JV 1x Tier 1 asset @£410m x70% share =22p or £287m MCap ... 2-6 months timescale
Sum of parts = 32p over next 2-9 month timeframe

Happy to be shot down and cut-to-shreds especially as I am not certain Kiwara asset size/grade detail that was known at time of FQM purchase compared with ARCM now.
AIMHO APR

https://www.share-talk.com/stock-market-watch-ast-stx-tils-okyo-arcm-orcp-ggp-piri-gun/#gs.qlmyau
"Tech stocks were represented once again on the stock market leaderboard with tech investor Pires (PIRI). Here the shares soared to 6 year highs at 12p, with the driver being the well received recent investment in Low6, a sports “gamification” platform. Given the opening up of the space, especially in the US, and the surge to online gaming since the pandemic, the run up to Low6’s IPO this year is being well anticipated with newsflow upcoming to match. Shares of Gunsynd (GUN), which also has a stake in Low6 rose by 6%."

PIRI RNS 14-Dec-20 & £200k invested SP 4p and now SP 13p ... so up 225% to MCap £16m or up £11m
"Pires Investments plc (AIM: PIRI), the investment company focused on next generation technology, is pleased to announce that it has entered into a share subscription agreement to subscribe for 6,667 ordinary shares in Low 6 Limited ("Low6") at a price of £30 per share for a total consideration of £200,010. Low6 is a UK incorporated company that has developed a next generation sports betting platform. This investment forms part of a £1.5 million funding round."

GUN RNS 14-Dec-20 & £200k invested SP 1.98p and now SP 1.9p ... so down 4% to MCap £7m or 'no change'
"Gunsynd Plc (AIM: GUN, AQSE: GUN) is pleased to announce that it has invested £200,010 in Low 6 Limited ("Low6"), a UK-based, influencer-led, B2B pool betting platform for franchises around the world. Low6 offers a white-label pool betting platform for professional sports franchises.
This investment in Low6 was made on the following terms:
· subscription for 6,667 ordinary shares at a price of £30 per share for a total consideration of £200,010; and
· this investment is a part of a £1.5m funding round."

Everything else being equal it is 'curious' that PIRI and GUN both invested £200k in Low6 on the same day and PIRI shot up whilst GUN went sideways or rather missed out on £11m MCap gain implying GUN 'fair' value nearer MCap £18m and SP 4.9p.

If that isn't an 'opportunity' for a 2.5-bag gain on GUN I'm not sure what is?
AIMHO APR

@Rosamund thanks for spotting that ...
"Shares of Arc Minerals (ARCM) managed to rise 20%, off the back of the type of announcement most mining investors in minnows dream of. The company announced that it has received a formal notice from Anglo Exploration Zambia a.k.a Anglo American, that it is sufficiently satisfied to give notice to conduct negotiations in respect of a commercial transaction prior to the expiry of the extended exclusivity period of 180 days, commencing in January 2021. The shares gapping up to new one year highs and maintaining the gains suggested that there could be further momentum behind the stock."

Following my PX update @12:40 yesterday ... Strong buy side momentum so PX has broken @5p resistance from Jul-2019 and also what was next resistance @5.7p from Jul-2018. If we can close above 5.6/5.7p today then this should become support albeit subject to a retest at some point.

I'm busy trying to work out where a new uptrend channel might be and this is giving me a next target @6.4p with a parallel taken off current support channel high @5.6p. Hence why I am looking for a close above 5.6/5.7p today to confirm.

Sorry no idea what happens next as need to consult my Technical Charting for Dummies again!
AIMHO APR

@Tricky All I can say is good luck to MetalTech who have been drilling Sturec out and have had some really good newsflow as they look to upgrade their current 1Moz JORC for Sturec ... anything over 1.5Moz JORC confirmed triggers a nice chunk of cash for ARCM so fingers crossed for them (and us) http://www.metalstech.net ... update on ASX 8-Dec-20. Judging by their stunning grades from recent drilling seems likely although timescales were not discussed.

Sale of Sturec to MTC confirmed RNS 17-Feb-2020 so Royalty agreement runs to 16-Feb-2022

The Resource Upgrade Royalty @RNS 19-Nov-2019
If, within 2 years of the Disposal, the Šturec JORC Indicated and Measured Resource exceeds 1.5 million ounces gold at a grade greater than 2.5g/t (inclusive of recoverable Ag equivalent), MTC will pay Arc a further A$2 royalty per additional ounce of gold . This royalty is capped at 7 million ounces of gold.

APR

@turbo go on give us a clue / link?

@Edgar from my 4-Jan-21 musings + updates
http://www.greatwesternmining.com/home
Cash: £2m+ after Nov-20 placing
Exploration Season: BH confirmed is end March to end Oct given elevation and mountainous terrain of licence areas.

Great Western Mining @mining_great 4 Jan
“...Pouring first #gold and #silver is a significant event for our company and we are very pleased to have met our stated objective for 2020. We are well funded for our current requirements...”

Excellent update from BH @8-Jan-21 https://t.co/fbPiZggsbZ?amp=1 particularly around:
> Reaffirmed initial metal pour was 31-Dec-2020 !
> possible early start to exploration & survey activities as weather is clear, no snow and mild temperatures otherwise late Mar-2021 for drilling start
> Confirmation that light pickup truck based drilling rig identified for MJ drilling
> Confident responses around a small commercial plant being established at Marietta base & end March timeframe for design of such based on lab results et al underway
> Confirmation that 25t MJ Tailings materials still being processed offsite for metal recovery

This Is Money article @11-Jan-21: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-9135083/SMALL-CAP-SHARE-IDEAS-Great-Wes

2021 Programme: Activities as per RNS 18-Nov-20 with timings & sequencing are my 'Best Guess'
1) small scale MJ tailings production ... design, build & start run
> UK lab results back & results available end Jan-2021 latest
> vat leach designed by end Q2 latest ... I expect prior lab %recoveries to be improved upon
> gravity separation fully setup in Q2 with contracts signed to operate & underway end Q2
> significant MJ tailings extracted & brought to Marietta base starting Q2 through to end Q3

2) Olympic, OMCO extension & RH group exploration
> IP & continuous Drilling programme & contractor/s plus equipment confirmed for Q1 or early Q2 start latest
> OMCO extension ... detailed ground IP survey complete & results mid Q2 latest
> Olympic, Trafalgar Hill ... drilling underway by early Q2 for completion early Q3 with assays early Q4 latest
> Rock House (RH) group ... drilling underway by end Q2 with assays by mid Q4 latest
> OMCO extension ... drilling underway by early Q3 for completion end Q3 with assays by end Q4 latest

Based on my estimates of multi-hole shallow drill programme with 2-3 weeks drilling in each location plus 1 week max relocation & setup. Assays 4-6 weeks max from completion at each location.

Bonus items not promised but would be good to see as part of an accelerated programme
> Trial vat leach setup by Q4 for start (re)processing tailings in Q4 (over winter) to confirm commercial %recovery
> confirmation of permit/s for extraction of further MJ tailings above current 900t licence limit

A lot to look forward to and repeatedly stated on this BB that at £8m MCap it only takes one of GWMO targets to be drilled and proved up for the SP to move considerably.
AIMHO & DYOR
APR

@Edgar Timings AND £valuations ... tough call ...