Member Info for antonvb

Nice positive press too

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/tullow-oil--16790192.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tullow-oil-backs-guidance-after-in-line-performance-5f529be1

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/tullow-oil-optimistic-about-financial-future

Let it go Scoobydriver ... JMAX is just a wind up merchant. Poitless responding or challenging... they will always know better, be right and living in their fantasy world.

Jefferies raises Tullow Oil price target to 30 (27) pence - 'underperform'

However some on here need to read this

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

Just answer the question Happy ….

And while you’re at it why don’t you tell us if you hold, your entry point and if you’re long or short?

What…. No mention of an equity raise?????

Happy remind us at what price you unloaded all your Tullow shares?

Wow, wow and wow …. I found the link below for tomorrows presentation using the 2023 link and just changing the year to 2024 in the link. If you go to the link you will find on the page there are document links under meeting materials. One of the “Annual Report & Accounts”, which is a 196 page pdf (see link below). Bit late to read it all, however there is a surprising amount of detail in it and Kenya is mentioned 66 times. A lot of times for what some on here call a dead project. Also states Jubilee is over 100 kbopd and production guidance looks unchanged from estimates earlier in the year.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

I don’t think we were supposed to see this document till tomorrow and I’ve accidentally stumbled upon it and looking at it think we may well break 40p tomorrow.

Https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/Home?Code=TULLAGM2024&Locale=en

I really don’t know why you all bother to entertain the fool. Jmax is monopolyman and countless other user ID’s. They post all possible outcomes and then whichever happens they use that user to claim how great they are.

Don’t well see anything spectacular in the update tomorrow, however I’m keen to see Rahul’s body language when discussing Kenya. As this is the AGM I don’t think plebs get invited. Anyone have a link to the call tomorrow?

Still very quite on the Kenya front. This is the only news story in a while, however I don't think it is really news, as they've just taken the details from the 8th of May Report on Payments to Govts RNS and coupled it with the fact Tullow have taken over 100% since the exit of the partners.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/tullow-oil-pays-kenya-sh577m-on-full-control-of-turkana-project--4621372

I still think we're going to get a decision by the end of June ... good or bad. It as gone way too quite, so suggests to me all the fact finding is done and the consultants are writing up their recommendations. There has to be a limit to how long they can postpone the FDP decision for.

Monopolyman

Posted in: TLW

Price: 34.72

RE: Always awaiting on good news that never comes.8 May 2024 14:38

At 34.72 this is a short if ever I saw one. It will tumble to below 34 before the week is out

Our multi user friend makes sure they have a user to post each of the possible out comes and then they can claim to have called it. How sad it that you ask .... very sad. The irony is beside fueling your delusions of grandeur, if you don't actually have a position it doesn't matter if you called it as you make nothing from it.

Here's hoping we don't get a cut and paste update again next week. Time for some good news .... only 7 weeks till the Kenya deadline. News always leaks, so if it's going to be positive we should see a sudden rise in share price before the 30th of June. Time for this wait to be over.....

If you search for "Tullow Oil" in Google and click on news and then sort by date, these 2 negative articles are the 1st and 3rd top search results:

No. 1

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/finance/news/tullow-oil-review-output-forecast-095438363.html

No. 3

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/finance/news/tullow-oil-reduces-upper-end-064705257.html

One article is from 2015 and one from 2023. It really does look like it isn't just a conspiracy theory that there is a campaign to keep the Tullow share price down. These negative articles always seem to appear whenever the share price gains upward momentum. I've seen it time and time again in the past few years.

From the Kosmos presentation ... The producer well that came online in April and the new water injector coming online in Q2 won't be included in the average production figures for Q1. So given production was 92.9 kbopd in Q1, does this mean since the new well came online in April we're now (or will be when the water injector comes online) over 100 kbopd?

Jubilee Drilling Campaign

• Five new wells expected online 1H24, completed around

six months ahead of schedule

– Three oil producer wells

▪ Two online February, one online April

– Two water injector wells

▪ One online January, one expected 2Q24

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/static-files/778e00f7-2c56-4ded-a79b-0a27db513b80

Also from the results ... bodes well for the Tullow refinancing I think

Net Production(2): ~66,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd)

Kosmos exited the first quarter of 2024 with approximately $2.7 billion of total long-term debt and approximately $2.4 billion of net debt(1) and available liquidity of approximately $954 million. Post quarter-end, the Company successfully refinanced the RBL facility, which now matures at the end of 2029. The facility size increased to $1.35 billion (from $1.25 billion) with current commitments as of April 26, 2024 of approximately $1.2 billion. The RBL facility is secured against the Company’s production assets in Ghana and Equatorial Guinea.

This does sound VERY VERY promising..... I'm really starting to seriously believe we'll get a positie decision on Kenya by the end of June.

https://x.com/AlexKWachira/status/1786484050766467451

Represented CS Davis Chirchir during the stakeholder's validation workshop for the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum's 2023-2027 Strategic Plan.

https://x.com/AlexKWachira/status/1786484069347307986

This document is aligned under the infrastructure pillar supporting the implementation of the Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) by promoting Energy and Petroleum Resource Development and Commercialization.

You can read the document referred to here and there are a LOT .... and I mean a LOT .... of references to developing Kenya's oil resources.

https://energy.go.ke/downloads

https://energy.go.ke/sites/default/files/KAWI/strategicplan/MoE%26P%20Final%20Draft%20Strategic%20Plan%202023-2027.pdf

I've been following pretty much every Kenyan government minister and Turkana local government minister who has ever posted anything about Tullow or oil on Twitter for quite some time now. Plus regularly searching for articles in this regard. There has always been something posted at least weekly, however since the 31 March deadline was extended there has not been anything. The last information article suggested that the government were auditing the expenses Tullow have claimed to have incurred and if they've followed the T&C's of the contract. This leads me to summise:

1) The government are looking for a way to weasel out of the contract and are trying to find out if they can find a break of contract to use as an escape clause.

2) The government are looking for a way to weasel out of the contract and are trying to find out what it will cost them to pay Tullow off.

3) Palms have been greased, deals done and now the paperwork is being put together for the 30th of June deadline, with an agreement being announced. Perhaps with the government having a decent sized stake in the project.

My take is option 1 is probably an unlikely scenario as governments generally get shafted when drawing up contracts with private enterprise and Tullow have more than likely adhered to the conditions to avoid default. Option 2 may be a possibility, as this could be a win for both sides e.g. if Tullow got reimbursed say $500m and Kenya got the oil back I don't think many people would complain. Plus Kenya appease the green agenda and get billions of investment. Option 3 could definitely be a possibility, especially given that Tullow got a free 50% to negotiate with.

So that's just my ramblings on it for what it's worth and am very interested to see Rahul's body language when he talks about it on the 16th of May, as I'd think by then he must have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go down. Approved or rejected, one way or the other I think we're going to get a decision by the deadline this time. Not long to wait now.

Given there's less than a month till the drillship sails away, I'd imagine they must have already completed drilling and are packing up. That begs the question as to what are the production numbers currently for Jubilee and TEN? Still nothing on the Ghana Petroleum Commission website, so are we going to get a nice surprise in the Kosmos Q1 update on 7th of May or in the Tullow trading update on the 16th of May.

https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-host-first-quarter-2024-results-and-webcast-may-07

If we assume the low estimate this drillship is costing Tullow $250k per day, which is roughly the equivalent of 3,125 bopd at $80 oil. As it is being released 9 months early, that's a saving of $67.5m ($52.5m in 2024). Enough to pay a dividend of around 3p per share, nearly 10% at the current share price. Not saying they're going to, however just putting it into context.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/as-noble-drillship-winds-down-its-drilling-gig-new-bundle-of-opportunities-springs-up-offshore-africa/

"While disclosing that its 2014-built Noble Venturer seventh-generation Samsung 96K drillship is expected to complete its drilling campaign in Ghana with Tullow Oil in late May 2024 rather than in March 2025, as previously estimated, Noble revealed a batch of new assignments offshore Africa for the rig."

https://ocean-energyresources.com/2024/04/24/noble-venturer-lines-up-work-in-equatorial-guinea/

"The new contract dayrate has been revised slightly upwards to replace the legacy dayrate with Tullow Oil, which was recently in the mid to high $200,000s."

Good to finally get confirmation that we're over 100kbopd at Jubilee from a reputable source.

"Energy minister Matthew Opoku Prempeh told S&P Global Commodity Insights on the sidelines of an energy conference in Accra, the country's capital.

Currently, Prempeh said, Ghana is producing some 130,000 b/d of crude, most of it from the Tullow Oil-operated Jubilee field, which is pumping over 100,000 b/d after a successful 2023 infill drilling campaign. Tullow's TEN and Eni's Sankofa fields, in which Vitol is a stakeholder, make up the remainder. Almost all of Ghana's sweet crude is exported, primarily to China and the Americas, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data."

I think the fact that no one is engaging with them now is starting to drive them crazy .... well crazier than they were already. Let's keep it up and hopefully they'll go find another BB for their antics.