Member Info for antonvb

Gingy Kenya will not be the demise of Tullow .... it has already been written off in the minds of investors so it would be no surprise if it is written off. No one except me seems to believe it's going to happen :-). I'm starting to wonder if we'll get another 3 month push back from the Kenyans .... consultants like to consult and charge a fortune for their services, so

would love another 3 months to milk EPRA. Also, news always leaks and we're less than 2 weeks away to the deadline and don't see the share price hinting there is good news about to break. Anyway, I still live in hope and hope they finally just approve the damn thing. GLA

Welcome aboard the roller coaster that is Tullow…..

Been dropping for no particular reason as far as I can see and 2 weeks until the Kenya deadline of the 30th of June. Just bought a little top up ......

Https://x.com/KTtkar/status/1801180345422733389

"#MTP4RollOut project aims at developing a world- class oil and gas laboratory to serve Kenya and the region in analyzing oil, gas, and rock samples to establish the presence of hydrocarbons @Planning_Ke @FlorenceMugendi."

https://www.planning.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MTP-IV-2023-2027.pdf

Economic Pillar

The theme of the Economic Pillar is to “move the economy up the value chain”. The objective of the pillar is to improve the prosperity of all regions of the country by maintaining a sustained GDP growth rate of at least 10 per cent from 2012 to the year 2030. The key sectors of the Economic Pillar are: Tourism; Agriculture and Livestock; Wholesale and Retail; Business Process Outsourcing (BPO); Manufacturing; Financial Services; Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources; and the Blue Economy.

The oil, gas and mineral resources sector focuses on sustainable development of the extractive industry. Total earnings from mineral production increased from KSh.12.3 billion in 2008 to KSh. 35.2 billion in 2022. The number of exploration blocks increased from 46 in 2012 to 63 in 2017, out of which 29 were licensed and are operated by 15 international oil exploration companies. Fish and fish products export value increased from KSh. 2.98 billion in 2018 against a target of KSh. 2.0 billion to KSh. 5.6 billion against a target of KSh. 2.3 billion in 2022.

(ii) Infrastructure Sector

The Government prioritizes: exploration and commercialization of oil and gas;

Recommendations

(iii) Continuous, on-going programmes and projects, and key priorities not executed during MTP III period to be carried over to MTP IV chapter on programmes/projects. These include: construction of Lokichar-Lamu crude oil pipeline; development of LPG infrastructure; and exploration and commercialization of oil and gas resources.

6.3.2.4 Expand Revenue Base

(xiii) Exploration and commercialization of oil and gas resources: The project entails licensing of blocks to technically and financially robust companies to accelerate the exploration and implementation of the approved South Lokichar Field Development Plan. This will be undertaken through: acquisition of geological and geophysical data; exploratory and appraisal drilling in Kenya’s sedimentary basins; land acquisition for upstream facilities and water pipeline; water for oil production, central processing facility and flowlines, production wells and access to power for upstream facilities. Enhanced appraisal in the Anza Basin blocks where gas discoveries have been made will be carried out, and depending on the resource potential, follow-up monetization will be undertaken through a modular gas-to-wire power generation unit and export of natural gas.

(xiv) Lokichar–Lamu crude oil pipeline: The project aims to construct 824km 20-inch pipeline with a marine terminal and load-out facility to transport crude oil from South Lokichar oil fields to Lamu Port for e

8 Posts on here today (now 9) and 5 (soon to be 6, 7 or 8) are from JMAX ..... and you need to ask why there's been no posting on here for 2 days :-)

Https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2024-06-07-tullow-to-know-turkana-oil-deal-fate-by-october/

Yes and No ..... Tullow are assuming 100% ownership, however this has not as yet been approved by the Kenyan government, hence the statement made by the EPRA Director General is correct. My guess is that they want a piece of the 50%. Why wouldn't they? And of course the big question is why would they want a piece of something that is never going to be developed? Hmmmmmmm

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

Page 154

Note 8. Intangible exploration and evaluation assets continued

Kenya

"On 22 May 2023, Africa Oil Corporation (AOC) and Total Energies (TE) gave notice of their respective withdrawal from the

Blocks 10BA, 10BB and 13T Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) and the Joint Operating Agreements (JOAs), effective

30 June 2023, quoting differing internal strategic objectives as reasons. The withdrawal is ultimately subject to the GoK’s

consent, at which stage the transaction will be considered completed and Tullow will have full rights and liabilities under

the JOA. Pending GoK approval, per the terms of the agreement, the participating interest (PI) vests in trust for the sole

and exclusive benefit of Tullow, who is the only remaining Joint Venture Partner.

In management’s view, in light of public statements and announcements made by AOC and TE to this effect, and in

accordance with the terms of the Joint Operating Agreement, it is considered that the ownership of the 50% held by

AOC and TE was passed on 30 June 2023, resulting in Tullow holding 100%. From that date, Tullow has the right to benefit from the PI and is liable for all costs incurred going forward (except those for which the withdrawing parties remain liable for). As the sole party, Tullow can control and direct the use of the asset from 30 June 2023. The position remained unchanged as at 31 December 2023. Tullow accounted for this as an asset acquisition at nil cost."

Https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/financial-standard/article/2001496485/why-turkana-oil-billions-are-stuck-underground

When the FDP was submitted for the first time in 2021, Africa Oil and Total were still in the project but sometime last year, they put in the request to exit.

“That request requires government approval, the ministry is still reviewing that and has not given a decision yet,” Mr Kiptoo (EPRA Director General) said.

“Our target is to close this out by the end of June 2024. We need to move forward with the project. It does not benefit anyone when the oil remains in the ground – Tullow will have a cost that it cannot recover, the government has a resource which cannot benefit the people if it remains in the ground.”

“The window is closing because it is not about Kenya only. Taking this South Lokichar development to first oil will require $3.5 billion, it needs funding because it cannot be funded by equity alone, it needs debt.

“If all European banks are not funding emerging oil projects, then the window is closing,” Kiptoo said.

“We need to quickly accelerate so that we can get the finance because when the lenders close the door, we will be left with the resource that we cannot finance.”

The Kenyan government is spending the £600k and not Tullow.

Https://x.com/AmbokoJH/status/1798252174277071327

"It's very busy on the Public Finance front.

While we are on Day 7 of Finance Bill 2024 stakeholder submissions, the National Assembly Budget & Appropriations Committee has made public its report on Supplementary Budget II 2023/24.

Here's what I think you need to know."

https://x.com/AmbokoJH/status/1798252212637819347

"The Committee also notes that the financing of two projects has been introduced mid-stream the 2023/24 budget cycle:

· The Kes 2.0 billion Kenya Green Resilient Expansion Energy Project

· Consultative services for the South Lokichar Oil Field Development Plan at Kes 100.0 million

The Committee flags fresh donor commitments as below:

· Kes 2.0 billion for the Konza Data & Smart City Facility

· Kes 732.0 million for the installation & commissioning of the Eldoret-Napal Fibre Optic

· Kes 700.0 million for horizontal infrastructure development under the State Department for ICT & Comms

· Kes 400.0 million for the Digital Economy Acceleration Project"

Strange ... we dropped 10% in a few days, yet the short brigade have been unusually quite. Normally even a 2 to 3% drop has them salivating all over this BB. Do even they now know that 35p is cheap, so don't have much to say?

25 days till the Kenya FDP deadline ..... let's hope the wait will soon finally be over!

Http://www.trendsandtargets.com/index.php/2024/06/04/kinda-like-tullow-oil-plc-lsetlw-at-around-37-30-at-time-of-writing/

Https://x.com/IloProspects/status/1796215368828047405

"With the new industry-led curriculum and training, welding graduates from Lodwar VTC will have improved employability.

This is crucial for addressing the skills shortage in Turkana's booming oil and pipeline sectors."

Basically 1 month now to the Kenya FDP deadline .... if it's going to be a positive decision and news starts to leak we'll probably be 50 to 60 by the 30th of June. Flip side is if the news is negative and status quo if the just push the date out by another 3 months.

Last year and Q1 this year Twitter has a lot of posts from government and county ministers in Kenya regarding the oil in Turkana. A lot of meetings and fact find was going on. In Q2 so far it has been very quite, with pretty much the only news being auditors appointed to audit Tullows costs. My hunch for what it's worth is that we're finally going to get a decision and have a feeling it will be a positive one.

Not much talk on here today of going to 30p and below.

Bank of America raises Tullow Oil price target to 58 (55) pence - 'buy'

Https://streamstudio.world-television.com/1129-2045-39623

Looks like some of the nutters on here infiltrated the call...... smh. Listen to the Q&A at around 35 mins in.

Agree ... normally we'd be down at least 5% on an update. Nice to see. I still think we're going to get a positive outcome on Kenya by the end of next month. Nothing you see out there really says otherwise in my opinion. Unfortunately I missed this mornings call, so didn't see what was said about it. Hope there's a recording .

Https://twitter.com/MarineGroupKE/status/1791033823297142787

Hmmmm ..... goes right through where Tullow will be extracting oil. Could well also fast track Kenya's oil production too.

On page 8 in black and white.....

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

"Five new Jubilee wells (three producers and two water injectors) are scheduled to come onstream in 2024. The first water injector was brought on stream in January, and two producers were brought on stream in February, with gross production currently averaging over 100 kbopd"