Member Info for antonvb

I agree PANG, however if the FDP is approved getting an investor is Tullow's problem. Once the FDP is approved by EPRA parliament have 90 days to do their approval. Hopefully by then this will all have blown over.

Https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/6/26/kenya-protests-live-news-more-protests-expected-after-finance-bill-passed

"President Ruto has declined to sign the contentious finance bill that lawmakers voted to pass on Tuesday – a bill that would have hiked taxes."

The finance bill containing the tax raises that caused all the unrest in Kenya was passed, however Ruto has blocked it. Has this unfortunate set of circumstances played into Tullow's hands I wonder. If they're not raising taxes now they need revenue desperately and there's a lot of value sitting in the ground that they could access. Also, Ruto is not very popular at the moment, maybe even fears for his safety, so he needs to give the masses something. Turning Kenya into an oil producing nation would certainly be very popular with the masses and give them something to feel good about. The argument that news always leaks may also not come into play in these circumstances as there is chaos in Nairobi at the moment and it might be a snap decision given the circumstances.

Just me thinking out loud .....

this tweet says that epra and the kenyan government are their client and not tullow.

https://x.com/leadwood_energy/status/1803374648517632014?s=46

i’d suggest as it’s only a few more days till the deadline everyone just chills and let’s see what happens. you do have to bear in mind that this is africa though and is a **** show. just look what’s going on in nairobi today …. hardly rahul’s fault this is dragging on.

Https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-25/kenyan-parliament-stormed-people-shot-building-ablaze/104021872

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/kenya-parliament-fire-nairobe-protests-tax-teargas-police-b1166675.html

Tullow might be negotiating with a new government soon

Situation not looking too good in Kenya

https://x.com/TimothyOtieno_/status/1805572541508927690

Gingy ... the gift that keeps on giving

Absolutely rubbish. This last went to single digits when oil was worthless as the masses thought mankind was about to become extinct. Kenya being written off is hardly going to do the same. Yes, it will drop, however single digits, I very much doubt it. Kenya is not priced in to the current share price as it was written off by investors a long, long time ago.

Sorry for your loss, however get a grip.

If anyone is thinking about paying to read the article, I wouldn't recommend it. If you reduce the zoom on your browser and you're quick enough, you can reload the page and screen shot it before the paywall blocks the article. There is not much from Rahul in there....just his usual we plan to invest in Africa in late life assets and are going to achieve net zero. Pretty boring if I'm honest.

I'm not going to get worked up just yet about the share price as will wait till we get the latest Kenya update as only a few days to go now. The share price definitely suggests the can is being kicked down the road again by EPRA. I'm starting to wonder if Kenya is going to end up in arbitration with Tullow trying to reclaim $2b in costs from the government. Who knows ..... however if it is positive news about to break one thing is for sure, no one is expecting it and the share price will rocket on the news. Here's hoping .... GLA

It would certainly improve the mood of your average Kenya if they were told they're going to become an oil producing nation .... I know it'd definitely improve my mood :-)

Slightly off topic ... this is behind a paywall unfortunately :-(

https://www.offshore-mag.com/business-briefs/article/55039498/execs-share-top-offshore-strategies

Execs share top offshore strategies

June 11, 2024

Chevron, Tullow and Woodside leaders provide perspectives on their key methods for success in the offshore oil and gas industry.

First oil 2028 .... start a 3 year diploma in 2025 and graduate just in time :-)

Another little piece of the puzzle falling into place.....

https://x.com/MorendatKE/status/1805133759307768030

At Morendat Institute, we aim to bridge the knowledge gap in the Oil and Gas sector. In partnership with Turkana University, we offer a Diploma in Oil and Gas Economics. Follow

@MorendatKE

or call 0704 801596 / 0713 693379 to enroll.

Gingy ... the shareholder who wants to recoup his/her losses, however constantly posts a disparaging comment every time someone says something positive about Tullow ..... I'm sorry but you just can't fix stupid .... smh

Https://x.com/leadwood_energy/status/1803374648517632014?s=46

Recent meetings with client @EPRA_Ke & other Gov of #Kenya stakeholders on commercial matters relating to the petroleum #development in South Lokichar, Turkana, Kenya

Objectives are to assess the suitability, feasibility and investability of the FDP as submitted by the operator.

https://leadwoodenergy.com/

Seems they are outside the NEDO office and this is their Facebook page with the same posts

https://www.facebook.com/p/NAKUKULAS-ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT-ORGANIZATION-100064354493337/?locale=ro_RO

Interestingly NEDO seem to have oil wells pictured in the logo on their profile picture.

TURKANA EAST STAKEHOLDERS LEADERS MEETING AT NEDO OFFICE AT LOKORI TULLOW OFFICE

https://x.com/NamuronJames/status/1804212890938851358

https://x.com/NamuronJames/status/1804212808046789067

https://x.com/NamuronJames/status/1804212676815446131

https://x.com/NamuronJames/status/1804212576768725211

Rahul stated that, but not on here

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

Page 8

In February, 2023 we announced that Tullow Ghana Limited (TGL) had filed requests for arbitration with the International Chamber of Commerce in London in respect of two disputed tax assessments received from the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA). The assessments relate to the disallowance of loan interest deductions for the fiscal years 2010 – 2020 and proceeds received by Tullow Oil plc during the financial years 2016 to 2019 under the Group’s corporate Business Interruption Insurance policy. Tullow had also previously filed a request for arbitration in respect of a separate assessment for Branch Profits Remittance Tax of $320 million in 2021. A hearing in respect of this dispute took place in October 2023 with an outcome expected this year.

Another good option J.Bond and proves there are lots of permutations for Tullow to at least get something out of Kenya.... Only issue with a new company is current share price values Tullow at less than £500m market cap for 1.5b shares. We know they need at least $3.5b to get Kenya off the ground, so the new company would need to be worth around $5.8B for Tullow and Kenya to have 20% each and raise the funds. If they issued a billion shares could they sell all of them for $3.5 each? I'm not sure.

One thing is for sure looking at the current share price .... if EPRA are going to approve the FDP by the end of the month news certainly hasn't leaked. Next week is going to be interesting.

money talks and bull**** walks. if there's money to be made someone will fund it, plain and simple. looking at some simple calculations ...

120kbopd @ $80 = $9.6m a day = $3.5b a year = $35b over 10 years

not all profit of course and who knows what the oil price would do, however even if it doesn't go well there's got to be at least $5b profit over 10 years for an investor.

it has been stated that total and aoi walked for different reasons. what the real reasons are we'll never know and at this stage doesn't really matter. if i recall correctly the kenyan gov have 20% in the contract, so effectively total and aoi would of had 20% each and it probably wasn't worth the headache for that when they have better options e.g. namibia for aoi. it's almost guaranteed the kenyan government want a bigger piece of the pie now that tullow was gifted total and aoi's holdings ..... why wouldn't they after all. we'll soon know whether the can is being kicked down the road or epra is approving this.

got to live in hope else why bother.

Flavius how do you know there are no partners waiting for EPRA and the government to approve this. Even if there aren't, it could still be approved and would be up to Tullow to find partners or default. It's lot easier to sell a field with planning permission to build a house than it is to sell a field full of cows without the hope you'd get planning permission.

Anyway, not long till the end of the month, so we'll see what happens.

Exactly ..... let's just forget about 120kbopd. It's only double what we currently produce, so not worth investing any time into that. I mean who in their right mind is going to invest into a project that will produce $3.5b of oil a year at $80 a barrel.

SMH

StanleyPro .... I agree, Ruto is not publicly backing it. However, the evidence that Kenya wants it to go ahead is compelling. The following are worth a read and if you search the document repository there is only evidence to suggest they want it to go ahead .... obviously not to say it will go ahead though and unfortunately it seems to take a few months for stuff to get uploaded, so not fully up to date.

http://libraryir.parliament.go.ke/handle/123456789/25471

http://libraryir.parliament.go.ke/handle/123456789/25485

http://libraryir.parliament.go.ke/handle/123456789/25515