Member Info for antonvb

There have been two articles stating that Kenya have rejected the Tullow FDP....

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kenyan-Government-Rejects-Tullow-Oils-Field-Plan.html

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/industry/kenya-oil-dream-delayed-further-as-tullow-plan-rejected-4690518

Yet when I emailed Tullow IR they stated:

"The review period of the revised FDP has been extended for a further 6 months " .... i.e. till 31 December 2024

I find it difficult to believe that if the FDP was indeed rejected there would only be 2 articles on this, not a peep on Twitter about it, nothing on the EPRA website nor any official statements from either Tullow or EPRA. Surely if Kenya was dead and buried surely Tullow would have to release a statement. Hopefully we'll get some clarity on the 7th of with the HY update.

Tambo210 .... still here .... just tired of JMAX, et al's constant need to respond to every post and mostly just petty insults on here now. Plus there's not really been any news to report for a while, besides the following which doesn't appear to be anything other than a few people digging a couple of holes in the dirt:

https://www.kbc.co.ke/turkana-county-conducts-environmental-inspection-at-tullow-oil-fields/

Oh wise one…. Please remind us what the share price was when you posted your pearl of wisdom and then remind us what the share price is now.

Https://x.com/Real_AEW/status/1813204848516518059

https://aecweek.com/tullow-oil-ceo-to-outline-infill-drilling-near-field-exploration-plans-at-aew-2024/

The fact the masses set their parliament building on fire a few weeks ago and the entire cabinet has been sacked including the Energy and Petroleum minister might have something to do with it.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/president-ruto-fires-entire-cabinet-and-attorney-general-4687106

Last time it was delayed it was announced in the end of the year results and there wasn't any specific press around it either. Again Tullow IR are prepared to email responses now saying it has been delayed but give no reasons and there is no official press release from anyone and nothing in the press. I suspect Rahul doesn't know what is going on at the moment and neither to the Kenyans, as it's chaos over there. The joys of doing business in Africa.

I think this is the story that is in the Business Daily Africa article (obviously can't be 100% sure as not paying to read it).

https://africaenergynews.co.ke/setback-for-kenyas-oil-ambitions-as-tullow-oils-field-development-plan-faces-rejection/

The headline states "Tullow Oil’s Field Development Plan Faces Rejection", which suggests the FDP has not yet been rejected and is a pretty nothing statement as anything submitted for approval faces rejection or approval. The article then goes on to say "Kenya’s ambitions to become a major oil producer have been dealt a blow as the government has rejected Tullow Oil’s field development plan for the South Lokichar oil project.". This statement clearly says the FDP has been rejected, however I believe this refers to the rejection of the original FDP that resulted in the revised FDP being submitted. Reason being is the headline and the statement are contradictory, EPRA, Tullow nor the government have released anything and there is nothing else in the article backing up this claim.

hear hear….. or is it here here …. can’t be ****d to google it to check :-)

Don’t worry about it bluemoon71. It’s always good to share whatever is out there and you just never know. For all I know it could be true and all over the media tomorrow. Think I’m getting a bit frustrated….. whatever happens with Kenya I think it’s time it just happened. I actually really miss the days when this would rise or fall 10% in a few hours on a whim. Was exciting times. Have had a RNS for ages. Dare I say it…..now a little too stable. Roll on the half year update.

Might be worth people looking at the 2023 results update again to refresh their memories. You really don't just walk away from 470mmboe and the possibility to potentially triple your daily production. Especially not before you've refinanced debt that is due to expire in the short term and definitely not based on some random article. I can promise you that until EPRA announce that the FDP has been rejected, Tullow announce that the FDP is rejected or it is splashed all over several reliable news sources ..... that the FDP is not rejected. Once Rahul has exhausted every possible option to exploit the reserves in Kenya and squeezed every ounce of capital out of Kenya using the potential resources in renegotiating the refinancing of the bonds, then it is time to right Kenya off.

Anything is possible, so definitely not worth giving up. The masses were setting their parliament building on fire and their president just sacked his whole cabinet (including the energy minister) and is fighting for his political survival. Don't tear up your lottery ticket because you think you will never win. Chances are you won't, however you just never know.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

Page 5

Net 2C Resources at 31 December 2023

Kenya = 470mmboe

Page 11

Kenya

Kenya remains a material option to drive value and growth for Tullow. An updated Field Development Plan (FDP) which intends to develop 470 mmboe of 2C resources to produce up to 120 kbopd, was submitted to the Government in March 2023.

The Group’s audited 2C resources increased to 745 mmboe at the end of 2023 (2022: 605mmboe), reflecting the material scale of opportunity Tullow has to convert resources into reserves to sustain long-term production. As we now hold 100% of our Kenya licences, net contingent resources have doubled to 470mmboe.

Page 193

Commercial reserves and contingent resources summary (unaudited) working interest basis

Don't you people get it ......

The share price has moved from 30p is to 40p ish around 4 or 5 times in the past year without any news on Kenya. That article has F all to do with the share price and at best is click bait designed to get you to pay to read it. At worst it is designed to encourage a few lemmings into selling. Google "short and distort".

I'll bet that that article is a rehash of old news and refers to the original submission of the FDP and not the revised FDP that was submitted. There are so many articles out there like that. If the FDP was officially rejected by EPRA there would not just be one article and EPRA would of also announced it.

As for the spending in Ghana .... yes we don't know what current production is now, but will soon find out when Kosmos and Tullow release their half year updates. However, how people on here can say production in Ghana hasn't increased from the investment is beyond me. Yes, production in Ghana is not at it's peak as the production has been declining, however they have increased production by 40% from the bottom of the decline.

The best month in Half 1 2023 was June with 2,475,623 bbl and the worst month was February with 1,993,443 bbl. We know the new wells came online in Half 2 of 2023 and the best month was August with 3,036,877 bbl. So that is an increase of 52% on the worst month of 2023 and an increase of 22.5% on the best month of Half 1 2023. Imagine where we'd be without that drilling campaign ..... yes it's not been as good as anticipated but we'd of been screwed without it.

That info is out there

https://petrocom.gov.gh/2023-field-production-data/

Well that aged well..... blue finish yesterday and looks likely again today.

Here is the pidgin version for JMAX .....

https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/articles/cq5x2q7xwx3o

Seriously cannot believe UK tax payers money gets spent on that .... OK I admit.... I can believe it. Crazy!

i get a lot of ****e ... ok some ****e .... on here for posting obscure twitter links. this is one i posted a little while back:

https://x.com/leadwood_energy/status/1803374648517632014

"recent meetings with client

@epra_ke

& other gov of #kenya stakeholders on commercial matters relating to the petroleum #development in south lokichar, turkana, kenya

objectives are to assess the suitability, feasibility and investability of the fdp as submitted by the operator."

interestingly if you look at the tweet the caption on the slide is the following quote ....

"development delayed is development denied"

ironically epra delayed the development again by 6 months just a short while after this tweet went out. so in hindsight i'd say this was definitely a clue. could well also be interpreted that leadwood want epra to approve the fdp and proceed with producing oil, however epra are reluctant to do so.

hmmmm....

A lot of chunky trades today but not much movement in share price ..... odd

TradeDate currency price volume tradeValue tradeType micCode

2024-07-11T16:08:49+01:00 GBp 30.66 1,000,000 306,600 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T16:08:49+01:00 GBp 30.66 1,000,000 306,600 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T16:12:59+01:00 GBp 30.76 720,782 221,712.54 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T16:12:59+01:00 GBp 30.76 720,782 221,712.54 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:27:20+01:00 GBp 30.6 650,000 198,900 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:27:20+01:00 GBp 30.6 650,000 198,900 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T16:11:43+01:00 GBp 30.84 600,000 185,040 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:40:31+01:00 GBp 30.51 600,000 183,060 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T16:11:43+01:00 GBp 30.84 600,000 185,040 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:40:31+01:00 GBp 30.51 600,000 183,060 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T16:08:12+01:00 GBp 30.66 571,511 175,225.27 AT XLON

2024-07-11T16:08:12+01:00 GBp 30.66 571,511 175,225.27 AT XLON

2024-07-11T15:48:39+01:00 GBp 30.62 500,000 153,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:39:19+01:00 GBp 30.47 500,000 152,350 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:48:39+01:00 GBp 30.62 500,000 153,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:39:19+01:00 GBp 30.47 500,000 152,350 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:21:19+01:00 GBp 30.58 450,000 137,610 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:21:19+01:00 GBp 30.58 450,000 137,610 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:59:45+01:00 GBp 30.6 400,000 122,400 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:59:45+01:00 GBp 30.6 400,000 122,400 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:26:24+01:00 GBp 30.6 350,000 107,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:26:24+01:00 GBp 30.6 350,000 107,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:30:24+01:00 GBp 30.42 250,000 76,050 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T13:50:53+01:00 GBp 30.54 250,000 76,350 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:30:24+01:00 GBp 30.42 250,000 76,050 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T13:50:53+01:00 GBp 30.54 250,000 76,350 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:27:11+01:00 GBp 30.4 200,000 60,800 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:15:09+01:00 GBp 30.55 200,000 61,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:13:51+01:00 GBp 30.54 200,000 61,080 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T13:41:11+01:00 GBp 30.6 200,000 61,200 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T13:37:03+01:00 GBp 30.55 200,000 61,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:27:11+01:00 GBp 30.4 200,000 60,800 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:15:09+01:00 GBp 30.55 200,000 61,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T14:13:51+01:00 GBp 30.54 200,000 61,080 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T13:41:11+01:00 GBp 30.6 200,000 61,200 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T13:37:03+01:00 GBp 30.55 200,000 61,100 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:04:57+01:00 GBp 30.267 180,075 54,508.7 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:04:57+01:00 GBp 30.267 180,075 54,508.7 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T12:33:14+01:00 GBp 30.76 161,717 49,744.15 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T12:33:14+01:00 GBp 30.76 161,717 49,744.15 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:32:50+01:00 GBp 30.45 150,000 45,675 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T12:34:10+01:00 GBp 30.75 150,000 46,125 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T15:32:50+01:00 GBp 30.45 150,000 45,675 Off-book XLON

2024-07-11T12:34:10+01:00 GBp 30.75 150,000 46,125 Off-book XLON

Here's an example of a howler from Jefferies, so not sure I'd take what they say too seriously. Like everyone else, they have an agenda.

Share price on 1st January 2021 - 29.58p

28-Jan-21 Jefferies Underperform - 13.00 Reiteration

Share price on 29th January 2021 - 25.72p

Share price on 12th March 2021 - 60.82p

Well the good news is our good friends at Jefferies have downgraded us again, so we definitely going back up again now.

Gogadget I think it's actually Kenya that is more of a shambles, given their parliament building was set on fire last week. That said, I do agree that the updates (or lack there of) we get from TLW are not great and don't have much actual detail. I guess companies don't really update share holders on progress, just on actual known events.

I know I'm overly optimistic, however we don't know the terms of the extension or why. One good thing about the 6 month extension is now absolutely no one believes this will ever happen, even I have my doubts. So if we did get a surprise announcement before the 6 months was up it'd catch everyone with their pants down. I think that would cause maximum share price upward momentum. Or maybe Rahul just wants to keep the Kenya reserves on the books till the bonds are refinanced, so is party to this being extended. Who the bloody hell knows .......

Well I owe Milliken an apology and have to eat humble pie….. Sorry Milliken

I got the same email….

Dear Anton,

Thanks for getting in touch.

The review period of the revised FDP has been extended for a further six months and Tullow continues to work collaboratively with the Government as they conduct their review.

Our next scheduled update will be our HY Results on 7 August 2024.

Regards

Matthew