Member Info for antonvb

Still here too .... just not much to say about this really and patiently waiting it out. Seen this twice in the past 2 years, when oil dips a bit the doomsters come out and the share price drops. The way people are posting on here you'd swear we were in lockdown again and oil was $20.

TLW Share price on 17th January 2023 - 39p

TLW Share price on 16th May 2023 - 22.8p

TLW Share price on 5th September 2023 - 39p

and again

TLW Share price on 3rd January 2024 - 38.8p

TLW Share price on 12th March 2024 - 26.6p

TLW Share price on 30th May 2024 - 39.48p

This will turn again soon, as a drop in the oil price from $83 to $73 doesn't warrant a 50% drop in the share price from 40p to 20p. The dip in oil started on a speculation that OPEC would start reversing the cuts and they've already stated they'd delay this by 2 months, so shows they'll support the oil price. US elections are only 2 months away now, so soon the shenanigans will stop.

The wait for £1 continues.....

A better article on this

https://www.shearwatergeo.com/press-releases/shearwater-awarded-4d-seismic-project-for-ghanas-jubilee-field

Sounds like this is happening ahead of schedule ......

https://www.agenceecofin.com/petrole/0309-121228-ghana-annonce-d-un-projet-sismique-4d-sur-le-champ-jubilee-de-tullow-oil

(Ecofin Agency) - The Jubilee field is, along with the SGN and TEN fields, one of the most important oil producing fields in Ghana. It alone provided 63% of the crude produced in 2023.

British oil and gas company Tullow Oil has awarded a contract for 4D seismic surveys covering the Jubilee oil field located in Ghana's territorial waters. The beneficiary of the contract, Shearwater Geoservices Holding, made the announcement on Tuesday, September 3.

The company has committed to two months of work, the results of which should be delivered early next year. Activities that aim to provide Tullow Oil and its partners with "high-quality data to optimize the reservoirs" of the field.

There were no takers for Shell either when it was sub £10

Won’t go below should read will go below

Not sure wha your point is. Nothing in life is certain, so you could just as easily say it’s not certain oil won’t go below $75 either.

As a matter of interest what is Tullow’s EV at the 3 points in time yo quoted?

Looks like someone already did

tradeDate currency price volume tradeValue tradeType micCode

2024-08-29T10:38:52+01:00 GBP 27.04 1000000 270,400 Off-book XLON

The situation we are in now is nothing new ....

TLW Share price on 17th January 2023 - 39p

TLW Share price on 16th May 2023 - 22.8p

TLW Share price on 5th September 2023 - 39p

For the MM's to make money the share price must go up and down. They will take it down as far as they can till it gets to the point where PI's say WTF and start buying again as it's too much of a bargain to resist. At that point the trend is reversed and they start to milk the PI's who went short believing in sub 10p again, as they keep believing it will go back down while the profit on their short is slowly eaten away. This is a bit like being the frog in boiling water for both the long and the short PI's.

Obviously there are other external factors that have a big impact on the share price, up or down, which play a part which the MM's can't predict. So even for them it doesn't always go to plan. Anyway, just my simplistic view on things and looking forward to seeing the trend reversed and this start going up again, as what has really changed since we were 39p ....... yup, nothing really.

That's definitely not what she said ....

I'm surprised someone who has posted on this website almost sixty thousand times doesn't know what the uncrossing trade is.

If any one is interested PetroCom Ghana have published the 2024 production figures for Jubilee and TEN .

https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

Jubilee has averaged 90 kbopd so far this year, with 98.5 kbopd being achieved in March the highest month and the lowest being 85.6 kbopd in June. This is against an average of 83.4 kbopd for 2023. While not a significant increase against the prior year you have to bear in mind that most of the new wells came online in H2 of 2023 and the average in H1 of 2023 was only 72.4 kbopd.

For TEN the 2023 average was 18.4 kbopd and for 2024 is 18.9 kbopd so far. So looks like the decline in TEN has been stabilised.

So overall while Jubilee production is still not what was hoped for, it looks positive to me even with my rose tinted glasses off. Hopefully, they are looking into why they managed 98 kbopd out of Jubilee in March, fix the issue and can get production consistently up to or over the 100 kbopd mark again soon.

Because the CEO has 20 million reasons to pay a 5p dividend....

That's FARNtatstic...... I'm happy for you.

I think what you mean to say is ..... once tullow used to be in ftse 100 share then ftse 250 then ftse AIM then ftse 250 then ftse AIM then ftse 250 then ftse AIM then ftse 250. share now ftse AIM .

Not sure what your point is?

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-morgan-stanleys-latest-oil-144600791.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJSpGOzwnDA63jC4ZhQSTgDJILYGje2zkm9DjmDzE_m56VZqz60DIS5iwzB-8FI1wzmXYAcLBlNF4QTjnX-jfmVkMLAEGDnGkmgNzapN7EXOBlGiee4yI8zghecEfiUVm3m8punuPROnf_-tsyPhnzUbspdlvjBqrkOSHzcvJ_h-

"While Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude to fall to $80 per barrel later this year, it’s still a healthy enough level for market participants. Therefore, investors interested in the sector could benefit from having quality stocks SM Energy Company SM, TechnipFMC plc FTI and Tullow Oil TUWOY."

The other thing to consider is if he's CEO he can't really unload his shares without crashing the price. So that means the only way to unlock value in the shares until he one day is able to sell is though dividends. With 20m shares a 5p divided will mean he gets a £1m dividend payment. Now if I was him I'd see that as a very tasty little payment on top of my already very generous CEO remuneration package.

A 5p dividend at the moment may seem like a lot, however with around 1.5b share sin issue it would cost roughly £75m. Uganda is expected to start producing in 2025 and contingent payments for that could be as much at £50m a year. So a 5p dividend might not be such a fantasy after all.

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-agrees-sale-its-entire-stake-lake-albert-development-project-uganda-total/

Contingent annual payments to be paid on upstream revenues from the Uganda Interests (reduced to 28.3334% following exercise by Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) of its back-in rights – see below) calculated as follows: (i) no payment if the average annual Brent price is less than or equal to US$62 per barrel, (ii) 1.25% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than US$62 per barrel or (iii) 2.5% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than US$70 per barrel.

The reimbursement of joint venture costs incurred and paid by Tullow Uganda from the Effective Date to completion of the Transaction in respect of the Uganda Interests.

https://jpt.spe.org/totalenergies-cnooc-on-target-for-first-oil-at-ugandas-lake-albert-project-in-2025#:~:text=Uganda%20is%20on%20track%20to,Chinese%20major%20CNOOC's%20Kingfisher%20project.

Uganda is on track to deliver first oil from its Lake Albert development by 2025 after having so far drilled 63 of the 426 wells planned at TotalEnergie’s Tilenga side of the project and nine out of the 11 wells required for first oil at Chinese major CNOOC’s Kingfisher project.

TotalEnergies’ 63 wells at Tilenga exceed the number needed for first oil, Uganda’s Minister for Energy and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, told a press briefing in Kampala on 21 August.

By 2025 Rahul will have in excess of 20 million Tullow shares. I think the big questions is what does he want for them? Can't see him being happy with 27p a share, as that's a mere £5.4m. He must surely have his signs on £10m plus. So I have a feeling that from 2025 there will be more focus on getting the share price up. Just a matter if you can wait that long.

That said there are a lot of things out of his control that will have a big influence on the share price whichever way they go ..... Kenya, arbitration decisions, oil price, Gabon drilling, Jubilee production, US election result, interest rates. Just to name a few. Would be nice to get something positive soon and in the meantime I live in hope.

Gotta love Roald Goethe!

Same story with a bit more detail and more photos.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/abdullahi-maalim_we-concluded-our-capacity-building-workshop-activity-7229846518776688650-8Ui2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/eng-kihanya-stephen-mwangi-b82ba337/?originalSubdomain=ke

More chatter coming out of Kenya

https://x.com/abdullahi_maa/status/1824084683170464158

"We concluded our capacity-building workshop for the Turkana County Assembly with an insightful visit to Tullow Oil's Ngamia fields in Lokichar. Thanks to Eng. Kihanya Stephen and Hon. Samwel Lomodo for hosting us. We're optimistic about Kenya's future as an oil-producing nation."

I reckon JMAX sold FARN and bought TLW this morning. What could be more astute than that and it would explain the 5% drop in FARN and the 5% increase in TLW share prices today..... surely?