Member Info for antonvb

Thanks M3STU…. definitely shows Kenya is not dead yet. Going to be a big worry for some on here.

Dear Anton,

Thanks for your emails.

The FDP has not been rejected and we continue to progress toward the final Field Development Plan (FDP) milestone, working collaboratively with Government in their review. The regulator, EPRA, has provided useful feedback and the FDP review period has been extended for a further six months allowing time to work through any final updates and clarifications.

With regards the recent share price performance, we share your frustration and assure you that we continue to execute the Business Plan as laid out in our 2024 Half Year Results, where we reiterated our 2024 guidance. There is no Tullow-specific news to explain the recent share price performance. The recent weakness is primarily attributable to a sharp decline in oil prices (from c.$80/bbl to c.$70/bbl) and this is reflected in share price declines across the sector.

As always, we are obliged to announce, in line with regulations, should there be anything Tullow specific that is market sensitive. We continue to monitor the situation and are focused on delivering the Business Plan, deleveraging and creating a capital structure that will support future growth and shareholder returns.

Regards

Matthew

I've seen it countless times over the past 4 years. We go through a period where the share price inexplicably drops and is taken down aggressively. At the time this board is flooded with doomsters who tell us we're going bust. Then as quick as they arrived they all disappear. Obviously shorters will promote there agenda when taking advantage of a dropp, however the fact they all appear and disappear at the same time seems a bit suspicious to me.

Anyway ... second blue day in a row now and hopefully those who called sub 20p are going to have to eat humble pie.

I believe this is the arbitrator for Tullow:

Dr. Michael Pryles

https://michaelpryles.com/

https://michaelpryles.com/experience/#international

"Presiding arbitrator in two cases concerning a dispute over an oil and production sharing agreement in North East Africa. UNCITRAL Rules. Place of arbitration: England. Aggregate amount in dispute: USD 330 million."

I think Jean E. Kalicki is also involved for Tullow:

https://arbchambers.com/arbitrators/jean-kalicki?lang=en

Pictet definitely are involved in the Tullow bonds. How much I'm not sure, however around 2020 they started building a short position in Tullow and I believe were hedging by buying bonds. Or hedging the bonds with a short position on the equity.

See page 239

https://am.pictet/-/media/pam/pam-common-gallery/article-content/local/italy/pdf/investire-con-noi/2022/relazione-annuale.pdf

See page 203

https://am.pictet/-/media/pam/pam-common-gallery/article-content/local/italy/pdf/investire-con-noi/2024/pictet_annual-report_en_20230930.pdf

https://reorg.com/articles/tullow-oil-2022-bondholders-hire-akin-gump-to-advise-in-debt-negotiations/

"Tullow Oil’s bondholders include Tresidor, Amundi, Finisterre, Aegon, BlackRock, Pictet, GML Capital, Credit Agricole, Barings and Pimco, as reported."

Of talk on here of 0p today for some strange reason. Think it's telling that we dropped from 39p to 22p, however not one short position risked going over the reporting threshold. Just good old Pictet still blindly hanging on in there with their poo coloured tinted glasses on ......

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/

Poignant "joke" at the end on the topic of oil and gas demand ...

https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1833477582563512753

This from the 2023 results has the detail:

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

Page 57 - Viability statement

Page 63 -Liquidity risk management and going concern

As we've had over $80 oil for 8 months of this year, oil could drop to $60 for the rest of the year and we'd still average over $70 for the year.

Two things bluemoon71

1) You're wasting your time engaging, as they will always be right and know better.

2) A gambler has skin in the game. I think the term you're looking for is Fantasist.

Everyone has an agenda .... my agenda says it's a 100% buy

Seriously though. We're getting to the point where this is becoming a bit ridiculous. Have I missed the news and there is peace in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine is over, interest rates are 35%, Oil is $20 and Elon Musk has said he'll give everyone a free Tesla. Three months ago we we 39p and all that has changed since then is oil is $10 a barrel cheaper and sentiment is now negative. So in reality not a lot.

At 20p there is a lot more risk going short than long.....

Unless I'm mistaken, I recall that the terms of the bonds prevent the payment of a dividend. Does anyone know if they also prevent the buy back of shares. Also, is this in both the 2025 and 2026 bonds or only in one of them?

I know…. I was just joking and winding you up

see .... the instant you started *****in' again it went from blue to red ;-)

Https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1833166980125274159

At the maiden edition of the West African Energy Summit, Hugh O’Reilly, Head of Exploration shared his thoughts on the primary drivers shaping exploration outlooks in today’s dynamic energy landscape, and why #Africa remains a region of interest.

Exactly

can someone explain to me how the bod profits from a zero percent share price and what happens to rahul’s 20 million shares in that scenario.?

i understand it’s frustrating that we’re back into the low 20’s, however we’ve been there done that many times and have a collection of t shirts from it. so i really don’t understand the total doomsday mindset that has set in, as it just feeds into the short agenda and becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. oil is still over $70, opec have said they will delay the production increases. so it is hardly a dire situation.

if you hold and you think it will drop then sell, buy back in lower and shout it out as loud as can how much you’ve made on the trade…… but please, please, please stop *****in’ as you’re only making it worse for yourself. this game is rigged against pi’s and the only tool we have to influence the share price is sentiment. your negative sentiment only counts against you.

If you want to regret something, regret not picking the Euro millions numbers on Friday!

4urelius ….. people make there own choices and there’s plenty of opinions on here and the internet besides mine. In short no, nothing will make me change my stance. I own it and am waiting for a big pay day. Maybe I’ll get it maybe and maybe I won’t. However, one thing is sure and that is everything goes in cycles. It has to go up and down for the MM’s to make money. In the past 2 years twice we’ve been in the twenties and bounced back to the high 30s within 3 months. I expect this to be no different…. The way people are carrying on here you’d swear oil was $20 again. It’s all about perception… if oil went from $50 up to $70 people would be posting all over here how fantastic it is that the price of oil is $70. But when it goes from $80 to $70 the sky is suddenly falling on our heads. I just don’t buy it and think Tullow is in good shape. If Tullow survived $20 oil in Covid they’ll survive $50 oil. In fact if you read the last update oil needs to go back to $20 before they’re out of reserves. Also Rahul will have in excess of 20 million shares next year. He’s not going to let Tullow go bust and I’m sure he doesn’t want to sell them at 10p.

So for me it’s just a waiting game.

When I find myself in times of trouble, Rahul comes to me

Speaking words of wisdom, invest in me

And in my hour of darkness Rahul is standing right in front of me

Speaking words of wisdom, invest in me

There were some rumours on this last year, however not much information out there. I've just found this article from last year that gives the most information I've seen on this .... could this be what has delayed the FDP approval. A refinery would not have been in the FDP that was submitted by Tullow and definitely looks like Indonesia wanted to build one. More than likely this turned out to be a non starter though, as haven't found anything further on this.

https://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20230623/44/1668613/luhut-beberkan-rencana-pertamina-bangun-kilang-di-kenya

Luhut Reveals Pertamina's Plan to Build a Refinery in Kenya

isnis.com, JAKARTA — Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan conveyed PT Pertaminina's (Persero) plan to build an oil refinery in the East African country of Kenya. The plan is known to have come from an invitation sent by the local government to Pertamina. "So Pertamina will be asked by Kenya to build an oil refinery there, so it's their captive method," said Luhut after holding a meeting with Pertamina's President Director Nicke Widyawati at the Coordinating Ministry for Marves, Jakarta, Friday (6/23/2023). Later, said Luhut, Pertamina will be able to receive a share of the oil from the massive investment in refining infrastructure in the country. Thus, he said, Indonesia's current large oil import needs can be further reduced through this collaboration. "There is an opportunity to bring crude oil to Indonesia," he said.

History says at this price you'd have a good shot at doubling your money within the next 3 months on the next run up to 40p.

Always remember ..... The value of, or income from shares can go down as well as up and you may not get back the original amount you invested.

Antonvb ..... ramping Tullow since 2020