Member Info for antonvb

Https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1850850077461426411

This article has been making the rounds in the Ghanaian media about the state of the country's oil and gas sector. As a leading operator, Tullow is committed to supporting the government to help grow the industry amidst the energy transition.

Read more: https://myjoyonline.com/ghanas-stagnant-oil-sector-government-must-act-fast/

I think Madhan Srinivasan, Managing Director of Tullow Kenya BV needs to get back to Kenya and get that that FDP approved. It does probably explain why they're a bronze sponsor of this event https://cabef2024.com/cabef2024-program/

On another note

https://offsnet.com/content/west-africa/island-drilling-completes-plug-abandonment-for-tullow-project-offshore-mauritania

I dropped IR an email to ask a couple of questions and got a response back today. They confirmed that Simba in Gabon is back online, so that's a small positive. I also asked about the Sarafina ILX well and was told that they'd be releasing a trading update in November and that would be the next likely update on this (does that mean it's a duster .... quite possibly). There is also nothing they could tell me regarding the Ghana tax assessments and don't have a definitive date yet for the ruling.

The theme seems to be around gas and looking at the program I don't really see anything specific as to why Tullow would sponsor this. Cost $30k to be a Bronze sponsor and every dollar matters, so must just be a networking opportunity I guess.

https://cabef2024.com/cabef2024-program/

Seems Tullow is getting a little more involved in Gabon by the look of it. Although still no news on the Sarafina drill results yet as far as I’m aware.

https://x.com/cabef_org/status/1847688041462206484?s=46

Are they saving the announcement for CABEF2024? Fingers crossed.

Https://ghanaiantimes.com.gh/tullow-ghana-committed-to-harnessing-hydrocarbon-potential/

"Mr Madama indicated that Tullow’s gas production had been crucial to the constant supply of electricity for Ghana through the regulator, and will ensure that the country was able to utilise and export natural gas, leading to increased foreign capacity.

Tullow, he said, expected that the negotiation of the TEN amend­ment plan of development would be concluded soon, to pave the way and unlock for over $1 billion in­vestment by joint venture partners to the industry."

Been hear this for a few years now, but you never know ......

Published today by EPRA .... Tullow gets a mention, however have they just cut and pasted it from the last report? Not sure, however does clearly state that the FDP is being reviewed by the Kenyan Government.

https://www.epra.go.ke/energy-petroleum-statistics-report-fy-ended-june-30-2024

https://www.epra.go.ke/sites/default/files/2024-10/EPRA%20Energy%20and%20Petroleum%20Statistics%20Report%20FY%202023-2024_2.pdf

"6.1. Upstream Subsector

Upstream petroleum operations encompass all activities related to the exploration, development, production, separation and treatment, storage, and transportation of petroleum up to the agreed delivery point. In Kenya, exploration activities are ongoing both onshore and offshore.

To date, ninety-four (94) exploration wells have been drilled by various oil exploration companies across four sedimentary basins. These basins cover a total surface area of 485,000 km² and are divided as follows:

The Kenyan government is currently evaluating the Final Field Development Plan (FDP) submitted by Tullow Oil. This comprehensive FDP outlines a strategic roadmap for the development of resources within Block 10BB and 13T license areas, as well as additional appraisal and exploration activities aimed at optimizing resource extraction within the designated development zone.

The development strategy revolves around a well-structured, phased infrastructure-driven approach, commencing with the most sizable and technically advanced reservoirs. In order to achieve the production of first oil and support the initial production plateau, the Ngamia, Amosing, Twiga, and Ekales fields, collectively referred to as “NEAT,” will be developed within the first five years of the production period.

The development aims to tap into a discovered Stock-Tank-Oil-Initially-in-Place (“STOIIP”) range spanning from 1,620 to 4,573 million barrels and anticipates the recovery of a n estimated 240 to 971 million barrels of contingent resources over the course of the 25-yearcontract period."

Been wondering when the doom brigade are going to be making an appearance again ..... guess the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are over and world peace has arrived. Looking forward to filling my car up at 50p a litre soon.

Article is a few months old but gives a summary of the timelines.

https://citinewsroom.com/2024/08/tullow-braces-for-ruling-on-387m-tax-dispute-in-november/

We're only 5 weeks away from mid November. Hopefully we'll get a positive outcome and will be nice to get some good news while the share price has some positive momentum. Of course if we don't get a decision by mid November JMAX will forever be accusing me of falsely saying the date was the middle of November :-).

….. I’m off to block the Strait of Hormuz

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Wild-Oil-Price-Forecasts-Some-Predict-350-if-Strait-of-Hormuz-Is-Blocked.html

I do sometimes wonder if on the one hand EPRA are not rejecting the FDP, as if they do they'd have to compensate Tullow for exploration costs. While on the other hand Tullow are happy just to let it stay in limbo as that way they don't have to write off the reserves, making refinancing easier.

Closing price on 30th Sept: 21.38

1st Oct Pictet reports a 0.04% increase in their short

Closing price today: 26.50

Oooops

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Historic-Short-Squeeze-Sends-Oil-Prices-Higher.html

Https://x.com/Africa_In_EN/status/1843192124121948198

"NIGERIA | The British junior Tullow Oil is in talks with state-owned NNPC on a Niger Delta project. It has teamed up with a local partner to maximise its chances of pulling off the deal."

Https://x.com/Africa_In_FR/status/1843214621156450746

"Translated from French by

NIGERIA | British junior Tullow Oil is trying to position itself in the Niger Delta. It has brought in a local partner to increase its chances of success in negotiations it has started with the Nigerian state company NNPC."

Maybe they're having another go at something ... this is from 2022

https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2022/04/07/nigerian-billionaire-elumelu-teams-up-with-tullow-oil-and-gran-tierra-in-hope-for-shell-success,109766265-art

I wonder if Israel's lack of response to Iran is due to the US elections being 4 weeks away. Pretty sure the Biden administration wouldn't want all out war in the Middle East just before the election. So will we see Israel continue to soften targets in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, before retaliating against Iran later in November. Strategically it would make sense, as they wouldn't want to escalate too much with Iran until their neighbors are sufficiently subdued. The Germans made that mistake in WW2 by opening up too many fronts.

The other scenario I guess is that Israel continue to flatten Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen while Iran sabre rattles and does nothing major to escalate the conflict, for fear of being wiped out by Israel and its allies. With Israel then ending the conflict once it has achieved it's objectives in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Then those countries rebuild and their organizations consolidate over the coming years and it all kicks off again at some point in the future ... and so the cycle continues.

The second scenario probably works better in terms of arms sales ...... peace or victory is not good for business.

Getting oil from Kenya would help solve this for India.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Israel-Iran-Showdown-Threatens-Indias-Energy-Security.html

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Irans-Oil-Tankers-Flee-Biggest-Export-Terminal-Fearing-Israeli-Attack.html

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Iran-Aims-at-Israels-Gas-Assets-if-Conflict-Ignites.html

Welcome back Adieuk32 .....