Member Info for antonvb

Https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6364285556112/dhir-tullow-oil-focused-on-developing-african-resources/

I think Rahul looks very relaxed in this interview. Especially around 10 minutes in when discussing the sanctity of the contract with host nations in Africa and doesn't look like someone who is nervous about the outcome of the arbitration to me.

I've been patient and waiting since 2020. Like everyone else in hindsight I should of sold in the 60's, however the Kenya carrot dangling in front of me was too tempting. Still think Kenya would of got over the line if it wasn't for the unexpected election result in 2022 resulting in a change of government. President Ruto seems to have bought big into the green agenda and I guess you can't really blame him as they're throwing money at him.

Unless there's a major disaster of some sort, I agree that 20p is an excellent entry point.

Looks like they are great mates. I wonder if they discussed the pipeline.

https://x.com/WilliamsRuto/status/1856717640644866419

This is recent (1st November) and does sound promising.

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/oped/why-sudan-s-poison-is-kenya-s-meat-4806824

The good bit is at the end, however I can't cut and paste it in here.

I wonder how old that approval is, as surely if it were a recent development we'd not be 20p?

"Approved project - LAPSSET Crude Oil Pipeline: Lamu to South Sudan

Brief Description of the Project

The Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline is a proposed crude oil pipeline that will originate from South Sudan oil fields to the Lamu port and will also be used to evacuate crude oil from the oil-rich fields in South Lokichar in Kenya to Lamu Port for export. Crude oil loading to oil tankers will be made through Single Point Mooring (SPM) at Lamu Port. 200,000DWT is considered as the maximum size of the tankers. The location of the refinery has been investigated under this study. Lamu has been considered for the location. Crude oil will be transported through the crude oil pipeline, while Gasoline, Kerosene, and Diesel will be transported through the product oil pipeline (multi-product pipeline). Transportation volumes have been set through the analysis by among economists, refinery engineers and pipeline engineers based on the market and economic study.

Crude oil is to be transported from the tank terminal beside the refinery to SPMs by two crude oil pipelines. The onshore portion of the pipeline route has been selected to avoid passage through the city center of Lamu, whereas, the offshore portion has been selected to run along the boundary of the port extension plan. The pipelines will run in an easterly direction through Magumba before turning South-east into Wange creak where they will be installed under the seabed to a point just North-west of Pate Island. The lines will make a turn Southwards transversing mainly a mangrove area through Tukutu, Chongoni, and Mwamba Pazah. From Mwamba Pazah the lines will be installed under the sea bed and run southwards to the two SPMs in the main channel. Crude oil stored at Lamu crude oil tank terminal will be transported through crude oil exporting pipelines of 42km length (on-land portion 11km, offshore portion 31km) to Single Point Moorings (SPM) and then to oil tankers (Max.200,000DWT) for export. The duration of loading to the tanker has been set as 30 hours, which is typical loading time in oil-exporting countries. The flow rate of loading to a 200,000DWT tanker has been set as 8,000m3/hr accordingly. The design pressure is set to be 2.0MPa as a typical pressure. As a result of the hydraulic analysis, it has been found that two lines of 48-inch diameter are required."

PS Rahul did say in the last webinar for the HY results that they'd get a decision on the Ghana tax arbitration in November.

DestituteBroker this is the full response I got (I didn’t save the message I sent them). So all I know. One thing have noticed is that since end of July there has been very little out there on social media regarding Kenya. Prior to that I was regularly seeing posts. So not sure if that means it is dead and Rahul just wants to let it be till the refinancing is complete or if it is now firmly with EPRA to approve.

“Dear Anton,

Thanks for your email.

There is no further update on the Ghana tax assessments and no definite date. Full disclosure is available on page 24 of our HY Results:

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/7217/2300/9943/Tullow_Oil_Plc-_2024_HY_Report_.pdf

From a production perspective: Simba is back online. Production from the J69-P well is not expected to return in the near-term due to a lack of pressure communication from water injection in this specific area. The collection of new seismic data in 2024 will give us an up-to-date picture of the field connectivity enabling new wells to be placed in optimum positions for production, injection and connectivity. We do not provide monthly production data.

A trading update will be published in November and that is the next likely update on progress at the Sarafina ILX well.

Regards

Tullow IR“

PS. Others on here should email them (info@tullowoil.com) or fill out the contact form (https://www.tullowoil.com/contact-us/). Especially those frustrated and critical. They respond quickly.

Everything has a bottom. Unless it goes bust or there is a major hiccup, it's starting to look like Tullow's is 20p. So do you gamble on that and go all in. If we have a positive update at the end of the month and sentiment turns it will go up fast, as the share price is so low it won't take much to push it up 20 or 30%. It will then get noticed as it will show as a top riser significantly above the pack. That will cause it to get chased up. I remember the good old days of February and March 2021 where had a blue finish every day and the share price went from 27p to 60p in 2 months. Of course if things don't go according to plan you could be waiting a few years till the next cycle where oil booms.

Always remember ..... The value of, or income from shares can go down as well as up and you may not get back the original amount you invested.

Antonvb ..... ramping Tullow since 2020

True. Got to live in hope or sell and move on. No point in holding in despair. This is from the email I got so not impossible we get an update before then.

“A trading update will be published in November and that is the next likely update on progress at the Sarafina ILX well.

Regards

Tullow IR”

The Trading Statement and Operational Update is on the 28th of November and IR said in their email to me that is when we'd be getting an update on the Simba drilling campaign. There's a lot of frustration on here and understandable given the share price. However, the update is 2 weeks tomorrow, so not long to go now. So a little more patience is required. However, if it's just the usual cut and paste job from the last update then even I will say it is time for Rahul to go.

All the usual suspects making an appearance this month. Is it one last concerted effort to try drop the price before the arbitration announcement.

Https://www.kenyan-post.com/2024/11/hope-at-last-as-tullow-oil-revives.html

I'm wondering about this one. Is Rahul just making a statement on this to try attract interest or has he actually engaged with the parties involved and put a firm proposal on the table in the revised FDP. Surely given how cautious he tends to be, he wouldn't just make this statement unless something was happening in the background and it was more than just a though, with some kind of discussion going on?

we've been in the 20's since august. since then the uk has had a change of government that is very unfriendly towards business, increased tax on shares and is pushing the green agenda hard. then in the us you have a president who is doing the opposite. is it any wonder why the share price is struggling. it's not some conspiracy theory ..... oil shares are not on trend at the moment. plain and simple. then there is the issue that production has dipped below 90kbopd in jubilee.

the above aside, tlw has stated that we will know the outcome of the arbitration by the end of november and are positive of the outcome. we of course get a few negative posters posting the usual nonsense and suddenly everyone is question things again and the world is falling on our heads. oil is still sitting over $70 a barrel and it's not the end of november yet. so let's just be patient and wait for the update at the end of the month. then if it's negative we can ***** like hell.

if the outcome was known and it was negative i think we'd more recently have seen a much steeper drop in the share price when the news was leaked. so for me the wait continues and the trading update at the end of the month is key. lots of jam tomorrow.......just hope i have eaten all the bread by then.

The only person worried about the 2026 notes is you. The 2025 bonds are trading in the high 90's almost at par and the 2026 bonds in the low 90's not far off par. Tullow have clearly stated they have the 2025 bonds covered and do not anticipate the refinancing of the 2026 notes to be an issue. Also given it's only 2024 now, it's hardly time to start panicking about the 2026 notes. Unless oil was below $40 of course or perhaps you have an agenda you're trying to push to drop the share price.

Maybe also go read the going concern statements in the results to reassure yourself.

More misinformation being posted on here. Tullow announce a long time ago that they had the 2025 notes covered.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/tullow-secures-400-million-5-year-debt-facility-yoko0y9cf022u5h.html

Oil sentiment might be down, however oil has been over $80 most of this year, hardly dipped below $70 this year and is currently $74.

StanleyPro ..... I'm afraid you're plain wrong and not looking at the data while considering the facts. You cannot simply compare 2023 with 2024 as the new wells started coming online from mid 2023. From January to May 2023 production declined, then once the new wells came online it increased significantly. Going from the low of 66.5kbopd in April to the high of 101kbopd in September. Yes it is extremely disappointing that they'd hoped for 120kbopd and due to the J69 well underperforming only managed to hit 100k and don't seem to have been able to hold it at that level. Hence the reason for the seismic survey in 2025 I assume. So maybe you should check the numbers and the facts instead of making yourself look stupid. If Rahul hadn't of invested anything into Jubilee and the rate of decline continued it'd probably be producing less than 50kbopd and we'd be well and truly f'd.

https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

Oil Production (kbopd by month)

January 2023 77.5 kbopd

February, 2023 71 kbopd

March, 2023 68 kbopd

April, 2023 66.5 kbopd

May, 2023 69 kbopd

June, 2023 82.5 kbopd

14 July 2023 - https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/start-up-of-jubilee-south-east-project-1noqzq6emmw8y59.html

July, 2023 89 kbopd

August, 2023 98 kbopd

September, 2023 101 kbopd

October, 2023 96 kbopd

November, 2023 91.5 kbopd

December, 2023 89.5 kbopd

January 2024 89 kbopd

February, 2024 90.5 kbopd

March, 2024 98.5 kbopd

April, 2024 89 kbopd

May, 2024 87 kbopd

June, 2024 85.5.5 kbopd

July, 2024 90.5 kbopd

August, 2024 87.5 kbopd

September, 2024 84.5 kbopd

Https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/ghanas-oil-production-rises-after-five-years-of-decline/838vh73

stanleypro seems to like posting negative ****e, especially around production numbers. the figures are there to see (https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/). yes, we have not sustained the over 100 kbopd that we were promised and that is disappointing. however to say “quite low roi, i.e. + 2kbopd for the jubilee field turned out to be below investors' expectations.” is just total crap. production is up around 40% if you look at the numbers from months 1 to 5 of 2023 before the new wells came online against the 2024 numbers. in fact there is positive news on this being published at the moment ….. “ghana's🇬🇭 crude oil production rose by 10.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, ending a five-year decline, according to piac.

driven by tullow oil's jubilee south east project, production reached 24.86 million barrels. petroleum revenue jumped 56% to $840.8 million, and gas production increased by 7.5% to 139.86 million cubic feet.”

https://x.com/africaishome2/status/1855283255760548155?s=46

Interesting .... found the article that isn't behind a paywall.

https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/106190-tullow-oil-ceo-proposes-partnership-south-sudan-renew-kenyas-oil-dream?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=KI