Member Info for antonvb

Https://reports.adviserinfo.sec.gov/reports/ADV/173793/PDF/173793.pdf

11. Current gross asset value of the private fund:

$ 513,189,729

Et tu, Brute!

Maybe so hearts2000, but the difference between them and you is that they have £10m to invest in Tullow and you’re just a 2 bit shorter.

Https://www.sustainablecapital.mu/africa-alpha-fund/

Investing roughly £10m. If that’s not a good sign I don’t know what is. Must of been shares harvested on the cheap off those frustrated by the update.

Same discussion after every update. Rahul had a plan and stuck to it and if it wasn't for 3 things we'd not be having this conversation.

1. The J69 well not producing. It is this well that meant Jubilee did not hit it's 100kbopd target. Not really Rahul's fault and I'm sure with hindsight he'd have positioned the well in another location.

2. The Ghana government are behind with gas payments and not agreed a long term gas deal. Not Rahul's fault that the government is basically bust and he can't withhold the gas the gas to force payment as it is used for power generation.

3. There was a change in government in Kenya and the new Kenyan government scuppered the deal with the Indian investors. Obviously we don't know the details, however it must be the government that is the issue as it is not Tullow that keeps extending the FDP approval date or asking for revisions and we know Ruto is courting the green agenda. Again this is not Rahul's fault.

What else could he do, he can only work with what he's got. Possibly the only other option would be to invest in exploration, however if that was a duster and no investment was made in Ghana we'd really be worthless now. Like it or not we are where we are and I think 2025 will be pivotal. If productions remains at these levels and oil stays high it will be the first year we see the full benefits of the investment in Jubilee. As always a lot of if buts and maybes, however just don't see what anyone else could of done differently in these circumstances. So like it, trade it or leave it ..... you decide.

Andoman99 I'm probably not the one you should be asking for financial advice. However, I think at 20p this has got to be a good buy, even if it's just to hold until it's back to 22 or 24p to make an easy 10 to 20% profit. All of the info in the update was already known by the MM's. Production numbers, ILX drilling results, FCF forecast, non payment of gas .... everything. So the drop has already been priced in from 30p to 20p and then some. So today's 10% drop is just a knee jerk reaction from PI's selling out of fear and frustration. In fact wouldn't even surprise me if we finish blue. Over the past 4 years that I've been watching this share if I'd sold every time the share went up over 5% on a day and bought every time it dropped over 5% on a day I'd have made a lot of money.

Bottom line for me is it looks like Tullow isn't going bust anytime soon, so will just keep waiting it out. Got to turn around at some point ... surely???

Always remember ..... The value of, or income from shares can go down as well as up and you may not get back the original amount you invested.

Antonvb ..... ramping Tullow since 2020

@Stanleypro

Remember posting this ….

“ StanleyPro

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,263

Price: 21.74

No Opinion

RE: It's the sentiment, stupid!!9 Nov 2024 12:37

The SP is in the mud mainly because Tullow's revenue from oil production is insufficient to cover the current liabilities, also, lack of successful exploration and quite low ROI, i.e. + 2kbopd for the Jubilee field turned out to be below investors' expectations……..”

If that’s not negative then I don’t know what is …… and of course isn’t factually correct either which was pointed out to you at the time.

Update can’t be all that awful if RNS has been out for over an hour and we only have 19 comments on here, with only one negative thread started by someone who sold out in 2020 in the low 20’s, missed the ride up to 66p and has been bitter ever since. Plus only a few of the usual grumblings.

Way I see it is while there is nothing exciting in there, there is also nothing to drive us below 20p. Increasing a short position has limited up side due to the low share price and a lot of risk given the Gabon discovery and arbitration decision coming up. Plus TLW has still hit production guidance, albeit on the low end and debt maturity is in hand till 2026.

And so the wait continues……

Tomorrows update must be the usual cut and paste job ..... neither good nor bad with nothing new to report, as the share price seems flat and news always leaks. Hope I'm wrong and we finally get something really positive to start moving the share price north again.

too easy :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojdgcxaf9d8

can't even be ****d to search their posting history to find where they were ramping uog at 0.37p and posting on the uog board that they should be thanking tullow. but hey .... their posting is spot on i'll have you know.

Same thing on X

https://x.com/Africa_In_EN/status/1861320400140902634

Https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2024/11/26/tullow-oil-management-under-pressure-to-find-new-sources-of-growth,110344340-eve

You can’t handle the truth…..

And is that also a clue regarding the Ghana tax arbitration, as they must be confident on that front too if they can afford to reduce headroom ....... hmmmmm I wonder

RNS this morning not helping their cause. Hope they burn baby burn.

None of them can buy now as there’s an update on the 28th.

Excellent news. They get it spectacularly wrong every time.

Another good sign when articles appear by prominent people supporting Tullow’s side of the argument.

https://www.myjoyonline.com/atta-akyea-attributes-petroleum-decline-to-dispute-with-tullow-oil-gra/

The truth hurts…..

I think you should cut JMAX some slack. If you’d also been holding Tullow since the heady days of £13 all the way down to 20p it would probably also make you unhinged.

But let’s just hope JMAX’s prediction of 60p by Easter turns out to be a better prediction than his ramping of UOG at 0.37p and FARN at 170p.