Member Info for antonvb

We didn’t get the rise we were expecting yesterday and the shorts think they’ve dodged the bullet. Remember that we dropped 20% on the news of Rahul leaving and look where we were a few days later. The fires not out, it’s just smouldering next to a lot of petrol. Good times ahead take over or no take over.

On the plus side JMAX ... at least UOG didn't drop anymore today. Got to be a buy at 0.1p as it's a huge discount from the 0.36p when you were ramping it.

10 million volume already this morning. At some point they will run out of shares to sell today. Honestly wouldn't surprise me if we finish blue today.

See ... that's why I got so excited yesterday. Nearly 10% down this morning. Got to get your kicks out of your holding while you can, as you just never know what's going to happen. At 25p a 10% swing up or down isn't really an indication of anything. Not too difficult for the MM's to swing it whichever way they want. We see that almost every day.

In the meantime, we still eagerly await the tax arbitration RNS.

PS: Funny how it's the usual suspects who say the merger will never happen. I think there is a good chance they are right, however they are wrong to short Tullow. Why would KOS buy a company that is going bust with £1.4b debt when you could simply buy the assets on the cheap after it went bust. Doesn't make sense does it?????

i'm starting to wonder if we'll get a tax arbitration rns in the morning. hmmmmm ... .

the shorts must be absolutely ****ting themselves tonight. sound the alarm .... panic stations ... whooop whooop

12p my ****!

2.73% reported shorts (probably a lot more than that), so in excess of 41 million shares need to be bought back. Could well be over 40p before the offer is on the table. Also, lets not forget a lot of the big holders are well underwater at 40p too so will want more. Got to admit I have no idea what the offer will be ... .can't be too little as TLW holders won't accept and can't be too much as KOS holders won't approve it (I'm assuming they'll have to vote on it).

One thing .... Rahul is leaving but sticking around till they find a new CEO. Does that mean it's a done deal and he's sticking around till it's official and after gets his options in 2025 at 50p. Meaning the offer is more than 50p. Or did he jump ship s it was less than 50p so not much point in hanging around. Former seems more plausible as he gets paid £20m a year I think so you'd think he'd want his salary for as long as he can get it ..... hmmmmmmm getting interesting again.

Going to be a nightmare for anyone short!

Adios 20’s

I think your screen is upside down Krakenoil

https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/search/products/?query=Tullow

It's been said on here several times that institutions go long on the bonds and short the equity. Is it possible they're closing those positions now. Surely that trade no longer makes sense, especially with the 2025 bonds. Your profit is capped on the bonds, however you could lose a lot on your short on the equity if there's a positive tax arbitration RNS or an upward trend develops.

They'd have hedged, however has what they've hedged against gone up 20% in 2 days....... I doubt it, so must be close to half a million in the hole already.

Hartee Ha Ha .....

Lol ....

I was extremely tempted top up at 20.3p just before Rahul announced he was leaving and again on Friday at 20.7p. Both times bottled it, as can't afford to sit on that cash for years if it went wrong. So the bad news for Pictet, Hartree and the 10p brigade is it's definitely going back to 30p and beyond now because I didn't top up.

I like it. They think we’re in trouble because Rahul got fired. We’ve been overdue a short squeeze for 4 years. I could well be wrong, however just don’t see anything on the cards to drive this below 20p.

In fact I’m going to call the buy……GLA (except Hartree and Pictet of course).

Funny I’ve just checked the UOG forum and I don’t see you bragging on there. You might want to pop over again, remind them to thank Tullow and bask in your glory of ramping that at 0.36p.

That said in reality I hope you do OK there. I honestly don’t wish anyone loses money….. except maybe Pictet.

No, my nose is just poking out the water.

And I remember when you jumped ship from TLW to ENQ before TLW started flying up to 60p. How's that been working out for you? So you're hardly one to come on here and suddenly start telling us what's what.

You keeping keep dreaming and maybe one day ENQ will come good and you can buy yourself that prestige car you've been after. Anyway, I've wasted enough time arguing with you, so will leave it there.

Krakenoil don't patronise me. You're full of BS. I've seen the posts you've put on here and on X. Nothing wrong with research or asking questions, however you're just posting baseless negative comments. Obviously the bonds have dropped ..... the CEO has just been fired. Yes, I confidently say fired, as if he was poached by another company or resigned for personal reasons we'd know by now. No one just walks away from a salary like that. He's been politely asked to pack his bags and leave with dignity as a thank you for what he has done. However after 5 years of his tenure the share price is s till at covid levels. Not good enough and pretty safe to say the major holders are not happy. I'm not saying things are perfect with Tullow at the moment and I don't think we're getting news on anything before the end of the year, however if it were a catastrophe as you're trying to make us believe the share price would not be holding above 20p. The 2025 bonds are covered and there is more than a year till the 2026 ones need to be repaid. Hardly panic stations just yet.

https://x.com/PrestigeReFini1/status/1865000610644336958

"Tullow look in serious trouble the Bonds will be impossible to refinance in 2026 without much higher oil prices, production rates declining quickly (sell) #tullow"

Krakenoil the only thing that doesn't add up is why someone with no investment in a stock keeps posting about it. You need to get over it and go back to the ENQ board. Pictet are trying to average down as their short positions on Tullow are at a big loss. Just go look at the 5 year graph and the share price each time they increased their short. In 2020 shorts were over 6% and we have multiple institutions over the reporting threshold.

As for the bonds the 2025's are at 90% and the 2026's at 85%. Hardly the crises you keep trying to warn us about. Hell the 2025's were at 50% not so long ago. Been great if that happened again. Tullow could get a significant discount on settling them.

4urelius aka JMAX. I think you need to filter me if I'm going to trigger you. People make their own choices ..... I hold, I ramp ..... why wouldn't I.

Rahul who?

Gained back nearly all of the dip since his announcement and strangely not much talk of 10p on here anymore….. hmmmm.

jmax i see you're getting ****y again now that uog has gone up 0.01p today. chin up .... only another 0.24p to go.

Oh and 2 other points:

1) If Rahul did resign for his own personal reasons and the share price of his beloved TLW dropped from 24 to 20p I'm pretty sure he would of given an interview to the press and given more clarity on why he's leaving Tullow. After all he has a lot of Tullow shares and would also want to protect his reputation. However, if you're fired you would take a certain amount of satisfaction from the drop.

2) If Tullow lost the tax arbitration case I don't think Rahul would resign because of that. Remember that the claim didn't originate from anything he did and it's a black and white legal matter. So he wouldn't see himself having any responsibility for any negative outcome in that regard. He did stick his neck out and say we'd know by the end of the year though. Keith Hill at AOI stuck his neck out by giving Kenya dates that didn't materialise (more than once), so if they know we're not getting a decision by the end of the year that may have something to do with it. Quite possible we don't as only 2 weeks to Christmas now.

The more I think about it the more I think Rahul was simply pushed, as the share price is dismal and he's not demonstrating any clear path to get it back up.

“ 5 December 2024 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) today announces that Rahul Dhir will step down as Chief Executive Officer and resign from the Board during 2025 to pursue other business, academic and family interests.”

I still think he was pushed given it says “to pursue other business, academic and family interests.”. Nice way of say Rahul you’re fired! My money is on no arbitration outcome or news on Kenya by the end of the year and production just hitting (or very slightly short) of the bottom end of guidance. Think either a big holder or the board decided he needed to go. I’m mean if we’re not happy this has gone from 60p to 20p why would the board or the big holders be happy. He had a 5 year plan and while not a total disaster, hasn’t exactly been a resounding success either. Go or we vote you out. Time for someone else to have a go.