Member Info for antonvb

I disagree ..... my top up is from just before Christmas is already up over 10% and my main holding while worth a lot less than when this was 60p, is up around 25% since the lows of last week. And of course the tax arbitration is now behind us. Fantastic time to be a Tullow holder. All we need now is sentiment to change and you're not helping. So until those holding long stop whinging and continually bashing this share, it's going to continually get knocked back. Sentiment is everything. Of course you may have ulterior motives and not be long ...... who knows. One thing I do know is I'm 25% happier than I was last week. GLA

He was definitely pushed. No way he resigned for personal reasons and sits back and watches the share price get trashed. He has a lot of shares already and lots of share options for 2025 so would want to protect those if he resigned (or wait till after he gets them). If he was pushed it looks better for him when applying for his next role if the share price tanks on announcement of him going. It just doesn’t add up to him leaving out of his own choosing. The million dollar question is who pushed him and why? Perhaps this is the reason we’re not already 30p today, as there is still an element of uncertainty. Hopefully we’ll know more soon.

Surprised they're not on here telling us Tullow is going to default on the 2026 bonds, as the 2026's have gone up 10% today.

2025 and 2026's both nearly trading at par .... happy days are here again.

https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/search/products/?query=Tullow

Relax people….

Get excited a bit. Others are checking in here to see why we’re up over 10%. Show some positivity and welcome them in. Your holding is worth 10% more overnight and they still have tens of millions of shares to buy back to close their shorts. We’re heading in the right direction again and that’s important. Going to be hard for them to dream up another reason for them to suggest we’re going to 10p again now.

Won’t even give me a quote to buy ten shares. Let the fun begin …… burn baby burn!

What is wrong with some people ...

y11-shx

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 2,673

Price: 21.14

RE: Earth to TLW31 Dec 2024 12:36

I’ve already sold. Wonder how long until I can buy back at 19p????

What will it be by 3pm?

Agree seakingalpha …. I just posted based on what is reported over the threshold. Got to be loads of others short with big positions who are below the threshold. Then there’s also the 10p brigade who’ve been very smug on here who’ll need to close too. And why would anyone holding long sell tomorrow after today’s RNS knowing what we know now. I’m nervously excited for tomorrow morning.

For such good news it's very quite on here. Must still be lots of people on holiday. I hope those short are keeping an eye on their positions. Be a shame if they were sipping Pina Coladas somewhere in the tropics and only found out the news on Monday next week.

Ah .... 2025. Definitely our year!!!!

2.92% of short positions to be wound up or at least partially wound up in double quick time. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow me thinks.

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.63%

Hartree Partners Securities (UK) Limited 0.79%

Pictet Asset Management Ltd 1.50%

10p brigade are going to sleep well tonight ..... LOL

I’ve got some magic beans if anyone wants to buy some….

The same person who called the buy on UOG at 0.36p and was posting in their bulletin board they should cover over and to this one and thank Tullow. Sadly that one blew up in your face as it dropped to 0.09p and you’re now stuck with it.

Even you oh great one JMAX are mortal like the rest of us.

I never understand why people who trade, make a small profit and then realise they sold at just the wrong time try deramp on here. Surely you must realise that it is going to make any difference to the share price and as you’re a trader there’ll always be another trade.

He’s buying shares and bonds for one reason only and that’s the fact that we shouldn’t be 20p and he’s going to make a great return. Yes, he’s spent more on bonds than shares recently. However, you have to remember as a director when he sells shares the price will drop so he needs to hold those longer term. Bonds he can make a quick profit on without tying up cash long term.

I repeat. This has caught a lot of people out today. We’ve risen 7% today and there is very little chatter on here. No one’s paying attention as it’s a half day on the markets and New Years Eve. We’re going to see some fireworks soon and those that are short will be running for the exits.

2025 is our year!

Good bye teens. Looks like the Boxing Day sales are finished. Think today has caught a lot of people napping. Going to be an interesting January me thinks….. not for the 10p brigade though.

He must of read my post yesterday about beating them at their own game:-)

Definitely no arbitration news imminent now or he wouldn’t be able to buy.

Many on here know I’ve defended him over the years on here. He isn’t responsible for the delay, however he is responsible for the uncertainty caused by the delay. He stated categorically on two separate occasions that we’d have a decision by the end of 2024 and it hasn’t materialised. Now we have the shorts pushing doomsday scenarios because of it.

Keith Hill of AOI in the past did the same thing regarding Kenya. Stating a specific date by which it would be approved on more than one occasion. He resigned as CEO of AOI after that didn’t materialise as well (although not the reason stated for his resignation).

The ICC Court will complete the scrutiny process between three and four weeks from receipt of the draft award (extended to between five and six weeks for Plenary review);

after the scrutiny process is complete, the ICC Secretariat will inform the parties and tribunal that the draft award is either approved or requires further scrutiny; and

any departure from this timetable "not attributable to exceptional circumstances beyond the [ICC] Court's control" will result in a reduction on the amount of administrative fees due to the ICC Court of up to 20% depending on the length of the delay. Decisions regarding the percentage reduction will be made by the ICC Court.

I’m pretty sure Tullow don’t know the outcome yet. They would have had to issue an RNS if they did and even if they didn’t issue one, the news would have leaked and they’d of had to issue one because of that (same as the merger). I’m starting to think Rahul was pushed for 3 reasons 1) No arbitration result by the end of 2025 as promised 2) no Kenya 3) Jubilee production hovering around 90k and over 100k to 120k promised 4) share price in the 20’s. I think this is just a storm we have to ride out and things will be ok in the end. 2025 is going to be our year.

Https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/notes/arbitration/2016-07/we-will-pay-for-delays-icc-clampdown-on-their-award-scrutiny-process

"Draft arbitral awards are submitted by tribunals to the ICC Court for scrutiny before parties are notified of the final result. The rationale is that an objective review of the draft award by the ICC Court (which consists of experienced counsel and arbitrators) can help spot errors and identify gaps or a lack of clarity in the tribunal's reasoning, leading to higher quality awards (and may reduce the risk of challenge or non-enforcement). The scrutiny process does not affect "the arbitral tribunal's liberty of decision-making" or usurp the tribunal's substantive decision-making power (see Article 33 of the ICC Rules 2012). "

The first step is of course for the tribunal's draft award to be submitted to the ICC Court for scrutiny;

the ICC Secretariat will then inform the parties and tribunal that the draft award will be scrutinised at one of the ICC Court's next sessions;

the draft award will be scrutinised at: (a) a Committee Session (by three ICC Court members); (b) a monthly Plenary Session of the full ICC Court (most appropriate for matters, among others, involving a state or state entity, where there is a dissenting arbitrator so involving policy issues); or (c) at both if the draft award is referred from a Committee Session to be dealt with by Plenary review;

I was being sarcastic as Krakenoil said there was a chance Tullow would default. Gees it’s getting bad on here.

Yes he bought in the 30’s like many others he could not have predicted this. And in truth we shouldn’t be in this situation…. and that is why Rahul is departing. He explicitly stated on 2 occasions that we’d have the arbitration result before the end of the year and we’re not getting it. That has opened the door to an attack on the share price, as it has created all the uncertainty, rumours, etc.

You can complain on here all you like. It’s not going to make one bit of difference. What will make a difference is if you still believe in Tullow then top up with whatever you can. Beat them at their own game. If you no longer believe then sell and try again on another share. It’s really as simple as that, but holding while you’re negative and have no belief in the share is stupid.

For the record I topped up at 21p last week (too soon as usual), however like everyone else I can’t predict the future. I’m happy enough with 21p as believe I’ll be able to unload my top up in January for a tidy profit.

GLA