Member Info for antonvb

PS

Nobull remember that Tullow only report the bit they own (38.98%) and not the entire field. I think that is where your confusion is coming from.

OK, using the updated report. Again just looking at Jubilee

Jubilee (Ghana) reserves

Oil (mmstb) On Production (OP) 84.3 = roughly 84,300,000 bbl in simplistic terms

Jubilee is producing roughly 90kbopd (38.98% to Tullow) = roughly 35kbopd

84,300,000 bbl reserves / 35,000 bopd extrated = 2,408 days or 6.5 years

Then you have to remember that there are also the 2C resources that will become 2P resources, hence the seismic survey, etc.

2P reserves do NOT run out in 2028

I don't think reserves run out in 2028

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6317/1102/2450/Tullow_Oil_plc_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2023.pdf

Page 4

212 mmboe 2P resources (nothing attributed to Kenya and 143 mmboe for Jubilee)

725 mmboe 2C resources (470 mmboe for Kenya and 107 mmboe for Jubilee)

So roughly speaking 143,000,000 barrels of 2P left in Jubilees. You have to remember that Tullow only own 38.98% of Jubilee, so 100% of Jubilee 2P resources is approximately 366,854,797 barrels. At the moment roughly 90kbopd are being extracted, so that's roughly 4000 days worth or around 11 years worth. there is a similar amount of "c resources in Jubilee too. This is obviously not a 100% accurate calculation, but you get the idea and I only took Jubilee as it's Tullows main producer.

He was definitely pushed. There is no way a CEO works for a company for 4 years, then leaves for personal reasons or for another role and watches the share price tank from 26p to 18p without doing something about it. They'd do an interview or put something out in the media to reassure investors and support the share price.

It is also logical that he was given the boot by big holders. PI's have been complaining about him on here for months now, so the big investors probably feel the same way given the share price. Also, the share price is in the 20's in the last year of his 5 year plan, so where's the share holder value he promised?

Why they didn't line someone up first? Who knows? Perhaps a heated exchange in the board room and a spur of the moment thing. Or perhaps they already do have someone lined up. Let's hope they have a plan, however one thing is for sure and that's the fact they want shareholder value. So that I think is a good thing for us.

Https://x.com/Africa_In_EN/status/1876540647139680687

"Tullow Oil's CEO, Rahul Dhir, announced his resignation in November. The junior company's two main shareholders, the Azvalor fund and billionaire Samuel Dossou-Aworet, didn't see eye to eye with Dhir."

https://www.africaintelligence.com/the-continent/2025/01/07/behind-the-scenes-of-tullow-oil-ceo-rahul-dhir-s-exit,110357637-eve

Seems like Citadel Advisors LLC are having a change of heart.....

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.43% 3 Jan 2025

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.63% 18 Dec 2024

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.53% 11 Dec 2024

Well considering I sold my December top up today for 24.58p, I'd say 30p. You can all thank me tomorrow :-)

In 2023 it was on 25 January 2023 and last years was on 24 January 2024, however the website doesn't give a date for this years one. I seem to recall someone on here saying it was on the 16th of January, however might be wrong. I emailed Tullow IR a few questions a week ago and that was one of them, however I've not had any response back yet.

At least i think so :-)

When I bought my top up through HL in December the contract note stated

Market Order

Venue of Execution: London Stock Exchange (XLON)

Broker: Optiver VOF

Today when I sold it the broker note states;

Market Order

Venue of Execution: CBOE Europe

Broker: Goldman Sachs

What is strange is I don't see the trade listed in the executed trades. Normally when i buy or sell I can see my trade list. Does this mean that someone is filling an order and it will only be reported once the order is filled or am I reading too much into this?

I bought a top up on the 17th of December at 21.104p. Wasn't looking too clever when we dropped to 18p shortly afterwards, but sold it today a short while ago for 24.58p. So that's a nice 16.5% return in 3 weeks. Might as well play the game I guess, as I think these 5 to 10% spikes followed by drops are shorts buying back and then the shares that have been returned are dumped (just my theory anyway). So Hopefully I can buy it back later today or early tomorrow morning for under 23.5p. If not that's fine, as I'm keeping onto my main holding till the share price recovers properly.

Share Price 52 Week Low of 18.07p on 23 December 2024

Share price now 24.10p

Shorts over the reporting threshold on 23 December 2024

Citadel Advisors LLC - 0.63% (9,191,814 shares)

Hartree Partners Securities (UK) Limited - 0.79% (11,526,243 shares)

Pictet Asset Management Ltd - 1.41% (20,572,156 shares)

6.03p difference in share price.

Profit Lost on Short Position:

Citadel Advisors LLC - 9,191,814 shares x £0.0603 = £554,266

Hartree Partners Securities (UK) Limited - 11,526,243 shares x £0.0603 = £695,032

Pictet Asset Management Ltd - 20,572,156 shares x £0.0603 = £1,240,501

And only going to get worse!

* We had over 30 million in volume on Friday, so likely these have already reduced to some extent.

Redacted I'll wind my neck in. I'm just frustrated like everyone else and I genuinely believe there are those that claim to be long, however are short. I also genuinely believe that sentiment makes a big difference and those long should do all they can do try improve it.

Anyway, hopefully we get some actual news to post about soon.

WOW ... please enlighten me oh great TankerQ who do I speak too? Seriously??????

Ah wait sorry, I forgot. You're the one that have been watching this board for years and are a long term investor in Tullow for years, but couldn't post for "certain regulatory reasons". Do you have special information too?

There you go. LTH posting negative comments and it opens the door for Unclemal to throw a quick post in there to introduce and element of doubt around debt.

Like me or not. This ain't gonna change till you change and people believe in this. There's so many companies out there and share prices often have no correlation to true fundamentals. This is a classic example. The share price is at covid levels despite oil being $75, debt reducing and they've just won a $320m arbitration and likely to win the remaining two.

Maybe i'm an oxymoron, however you're just a moron.

TankerQ .... one of the usual suspects. I don't treat it as anything. However, it was 66p when in a lot worse shape than it is now and oil a lot lower than it is now. Why? Because of sentiment.

So I've never invested in Tullow before nor even heard of Tullow. I see in the papers they've won a tax case and the share price went up 25% last week. I decide to do a bit more research and see what people are saying on the forums. The latest thread I see is headed "This stock is a joke" and the BB is full of LTH posting negative comments. So I think I'll pass on this one and not invest this time.

I really don't know if some on here are short but claim to be long and post negativity. However, I do know that until sentiment changes and people actually want to invest in Tullow and not just trade it, we're going nowhere and just going to bounce around a 5 to 10% range. The market doesn't care if it is between 10p and 11p, 20p and 22p, 30p and 33p or 200p and 220p, as whatever the range they make the same percentage profit. So all you idiots, yes I'm sorry to say you're idiots, that are holding long and posting anything negative are just feeding this and not helping. Remember that a lot of holders have been burnt by Tullow in the past, so there is a legacy that needs to be overcome. Be positive and post positive comments to create an environment that people want to invest into. No matter what happens at Tullow, barring a major game changer RNS, until that happens this will just get trade at will and the negativity from LTH's allows those short to introduce fear and doubt..

I really doubt anyone will listen to this and I'll keep seeing LTH's constantly posting disparaging comments about the share. C'est La Vie!

Apologies… I missed the bit in the article on costs. Should definitely discourage GRA from pursuing any more bogus tax claims.

Gogaget Ive been very optimistic regarding and one of the main reasons I’ve held for so long. However, for nearly 6 months now I’ve not seen a peep on Twitter or anywhere else on it. So either the FDP is on a shelf at EPRA collecting dust or they’re seriously reviewing it. My gut feel now is that EPRA are never going to approve it as EPRA have been stalling for 2 years now. Hope I’m wrong and surely there must be a point at which Tullow gives them and ultimatum….. either approve the FDP or we take it to the ICC to make you reimburse us the $2b exploration costs. I can understand why they go softly softly with the Ghana government as most of the production comes from there, however it’s time get tough with the Kenyan government. Nothing to lose in Kenya now. and I’d probably prefer the $2b now as opposed to first oil in 20 whatever in the future. He’ll even they got a quarter of the $2 that would be enough to buy another small oiler or almost halve the debt.

We need a new CEO asap and one the market likes. Given there is a high likelihood Rahul was pushed by major shareholders it’s probably safe to assume they will have a say in who the new CEO is.

I really hope they give us some information in the January update on what the hell is going on.

Interesting article. What theRNS from Tullow didn’t say and neither does the article, is what was ruled regarding costs. If Tullow were awarded costs that might also deter the GRA from continuing with the other 2 spurious claims. Although, Ghana seem quite happy not to pay for the gas at the moment so would probably also be quite happy not to pay any award of costs.

Another interesting point in the article is where it says a decision was due by February 2025, but came early. So perhaps that date and the fact Rahul stated we’d get a decision by the end of 2024 may have had something to do with him being pushed after all.

“ 14. Then less than two months to the conclusion of the case, the Attorney General attempted to have the President of the arbitration panel removed from the case on very frivolous grounds. Obviously, he lost. Not surprising then that even though the panel had up to February 2025 to issue its ruling, it did so last month. I won’t be surprised if they had had enough of the Attorney General’s antics and convoluted reasoning.”