Member Info for antonvb

Smallest volumes I've probably seen on here in 5 years. Seems it's a waiting game at the moment until the January update (or news of it leaks), which I think will determine the next trajectory.

Very low volume today. Looks like all very small trades today and a single 30K trade (almost 15% of the days volume in a single trade) caused the price to spike from 23.2p to 23.59p. A 1.68% increase. This is as far as I can tell with the limited tools available to me and I guess this is the reason why the share price can be manipulated so easily. Very very tempted to dump my entire holding and buy it back a few minutes late once the bots panic.

15-Jan-25 13:45:26 23.586 127,194 Buy* 23.14 23.54 30.00k O

No don't recall. Perhaps from before I invested in Tullow.

Something is going on, as it's half way through the month and there is still no date for the January trading update. Normally we'd have a date by now. I can only think they're waiting on something to happen before they announce the date. Is it Kenya (unlikely I think), is it a payment for Ghana gas (quite possibly and I really hope so), is it the final lifting they referred to in the November update (seems unlikely), is it refinancing of the 2025 bonds (seems unlikely too). The other option is that it is chaos at Tullow now Rahul has resigned, however I think that is probably unlikely as he has a fair amount of Tullow shares so would want a smooth transition.

Just my thoughts and we'll see what happens I guess.....

It's already listed on he Ghana stock exchange. Maybe they need to list on the Kenyan stock exchange.

I did indeed filter you, however curiosity got the better of me so I unfiltered you. When you're on you're meds and predicting 60p I find you tolerable :-)

I think refinancing the debt is a mute point at the moment. The RCF has been secured with ease by the sounds of it:

"Extending the RCF is a key step in our refinancing plans. The facility size provides us with our targeted liquidity headroom whilst reducing overall financing costs. The extension was materially oversubscribed, demonstrating Tullow's strong and enduring relationships with our lenders and providing us with confidence as we progress our plans to address our remaining debt maturities."

The 2025 note's are already covered under the Glencore facility and is a significantly smaller amount ($493m odd) to refinance than the 2026 notes, so shouldn't be an issue and they have a strong bargaining position in that regard. The 2026 notes only mature in May 2026, so we won't see these refinanced till Q1 or May in 2026 due to the current interest rate environment. So interest rates today have little impact on that at the moment as a week is a long time in politics as they say.

We need a good January trading update with Ghana having paid something towards their missed gas payments, a new CEO the market likes and we should see an RNS on the 2025 notes before the end March which will hopefully have a better interest rate than the Glencore facility (which shouldn't be too difficult as that is Term Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 10%.

If the stars align we may just be 60p by Easter as JMAX keeps reminding us :-)

Seems there's an energy crises in Ghana and Tullow mentioned power cuts as a reason for lower Jubilee production.

https://citinewsroom.com/2025/01/mahama-meets-ipps-amidst-looming-power-crisis/

"President John Dramani Mahama has convened an urgent meeting with the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to discuss ways of averting a potential power crisis.

This critical dialogue, held on Monday, January 13, 2025 was aimed at addressing the ongoing challenges in Ghana’s power sector came against the backdrop of significant financial disputes, particularly the government’s outstanding debt to the IPPs, which had reached a staggering $1.2 billion as of October 2024.

With the government’s debt obligations remaining unresolved, concerns about a potential energy crisis were rapidly escalating, especially after repeated threats from the IPPs to halt power production."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/november-trading-update-z2f41wbav3c4zoy.html

"· Jubilee oil production averaged c.89 kbopd (c.34.5 kbopd net) to end-October, below expectations primarily due to underperformance of the J69-P well as flagged previously, unplanned downtime at the GNGC onshore gas processing plant and periods of reduced water injection due to power outages."

Anyone on here applied for Rahul's job?

I’m not too hopeful about Kenya anymore. I used to see signs of things happening on social media and news articles, however have hardly seen anything at all for 6 months now. EPRA have had the FDP for nearly a year and not a peep out of them either. Hopefully I’ll be pleasantly surprised and we’ll get some positive news soon. It is strange though as when the new energy minister was appointed he said he wanted to revive the project (https://x.com/ktnnewske/status/1819736079336870045?s=46). Plus you’d think the extra 50% gifted to Tullow would have been a game changer in negotiations. If brown envelopes are how you get things moving in Kenya then someone at Tullow needs to pop out to WH Smith and get some.

https://in.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TULLOW-OIL-PLC-9590152/news/Tullow-Singles-Out-Kenya-Oil-Project-As-One-of-Its-Key-Growth-Area-46112175/

“ The Full-Year Results statement and presentation show that Kenya remains a material option to drive value and growth for the Company. Last year, Tullow's contingent resource in Kenya doubled to 470mmstb, with Tullow now holding 100% of the licence and a Field Development Plan (FDP) under discussion with the Government. The increased interest provides Tullow with greater strategic flexibility.

According to Tullow Kenya BV (TKBV) Managing Director Mr Madhan Srinivasan, an updated Field Development Plan (FDP) to develop 470 mmboe resources to produce up to 120 kbopd, was submitted to the Government in March 2023.

The firm, which plans to invest more than US$10 million in Kenya this year, he disclosed, had received formal notification early this month from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) extending the review period of the updated Field Development Plan (FDP) to 30 June 2024.

While progressing the FDP, TKBV Tullow, Madhan added, is also actively working with the Government of Kenya to develop options to accelerate production and cash flow to unlock value from the local asset. These options, he said, are being explored with the Government and will supplement Tullow's Full Field Development (FFD) plan for Project Oil Kenya.

"We are collaboratively working with the Government of Kenya as they evaluate the FDP. Once their evaluation is concluded, the FDP will be submitted to the Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum for review before submission to Parliament for final approval. The development has been designed to be robust at lower oil prices, and we continue discussions with prospective strategic partners for this project," Madhan said.”

Hopefully the cheque is in the post and arrives before the January trading update.

Exactly ... and let's not forget that because of inflation $50 isn't what it used to be nowadays, so $80 is the new $50.

Bit like the coins in your pocket. Used to be worth something, but now pretty much only useful for getting a shopping trolley.

I'm starting to think we need $50 oil again so we can go back to 60p.

No idea what the hell is going on at the moment. Barring our CEO leaving (which could even be argued as a good thing) Tullow appears to be in the best shape it's been in for quite a while and brent averaged 80.53 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024. So no idea why the share price is so low.

I always like to try read between the lines and what I'm wondering is why we don't have a date yet for the January trading update with only 21 days left in January. To me it suggests they're waiting for something to happen which they want included in the update. Perhaps it's the January liftings? Could they have predicted the oil price rising so putting it off as long as possible. Who knows? I say this before every update ..... I hope January's update isn't just the usual cut and paste job with a search replace of the dates. We really need some actual info this time around.

Funny ... you don't see JMAX posting on the UOG board anymore or mentioning what a great prediction he made on that one calling the buy at 0.36p.

we need the new ceo appointed asap. i just looked at the old rns’s and the ceo prior to rahul resigned in december 2019, rahul’s appointment was announced in april 2020 and he started in july 2020. don’t think we can afford to spend 6 months in limbo until a new ceo starts.

got to say i’m ****ed off with whoever forced rahul out. perhaps it was for the right reasons but definitely the wrong time. if they’d of waited till after the arbitration result was announced we’d have probably been in the high 30’s by then and now in the low 30’s after his announcement. i assume they’re probably not too bothered as see this drop as a short term thing of no consequence given they will probably hold very long term.

Got my response from IR…..

“We will publish the 24 FY Results date with the January Trading Statement, which is expected around the end of the month.

To address your questions:

1) We continue to progress toward the final FDP milestone, working collaboratively with Government in their review.

2) See release: https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/successful-outcome-ghana-tax-arbitration/

3) The process is underway, in the mean time it is business as usual.”

FYI: Answer 3 is regarding finding a new CEO.

The link opens the latest edition. You have to search Tuesdays edition to find it.

Https://x.com/Stockomendation/status/1876932920084172903

𝐔𝐊 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐓𝐎𝐏 𝐏𝐋𝐀𝐘𝐄𝐑𝐒

1. SolentHammer

2. OJDontPlay

3. Spleen

𝐌𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐁𝐎𝐔𝐆𝐇𝐓

1. Tullow Oil #TLW

2. BP #BP.

3. Jubilee Metals Group #JLP

https://www.stockomendation.com/companies/tlw-tullow-oil

Thanks for sharing. Really nice to see prominent positive press (for those that haven't seen it, there's a nice graph showing the rise from 19p to to 24.58p since 30th December and Peel & Hunts BUY recommendation in a paragraph on the tax case win). These positive headlines will translate into positive share price movement soon enough.

PS

Nobull remember that Tullow only report the bit they own (38.98%) and not the entire field. I think that is where your confusion is coming from.