Member Info for antonvb

Https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

Putting petty squabbles aside and ignoring idiots (not you Falvius)

The November trading update stated:

“- Water injection capacity has been increased to c.300 bwpd and gas offtake is currently c.100 mmscfpd. Combined with further production optimisation activities, this is expected to mitigate the declines experienced in the second half of 2024.”

There have been some articles about a Ghana power crises, so hopefully it is due to the shutdown and power issues, rather than the field itself.

Jubilee Total 30,444,217 barrels in 2023

Jubilee Total 31,455,224 barrels in 2024

So doesn't look like a catastrophe, however were promised much more and Rahul staked his reputation on it. so this must be why he's going.

What I still really don't understand is why no trading statement or at least date for it yet? Historically, it doesn't really have a lot in it, so no need to wait for refinancing, etc. etc. So can only be related to this from the November update ... surely????

"- The final position within the revised range for 2024 will depend on realised prices of four cargos yet to price, progress on receipt of the overdue gas payments from the Government of Ghana (currently c.$40 million outstanding) and working capital movements."

That was for JMAX

JMAX you love accusing me of lying :-)

I just quote what I see and often include the links ..... unlike you that just post to be obnoxious.

Rahul Dhir, Tullow Chief Executive Officer, said: "Reaching production of over 100,000 bopd from the Jubilee field is a major milestone for Tullow, our partners and for Ghana. I look forward to working with our partners to sustain these higher levels of production for several years and to realise the full potential of the Jubilee resource base.

For Tullow, delivery of this step up in production is a key part of our business plan, in line with our commitment to deliver over $800 million of free cash flow between 2023 to 2025."

Https://www.oedigital.com/news/506562-ghana-tullow-oil-s-jubilee-offshore-field-hits-100-000-barrels-per-day-mark

Figures for the last 3 months published today. Jubilee numbers been declining monthly since July. Not good!

https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

Talking of pump and dump. They sure dumped UOG on you. Maybe Rahul can get a job there as CEO and get the share price back to 0.36p for you.

Ah yes, sorry. Stifel are commenting on 2025 production. So that means they are they anticipating 3kbopd less production across the portfolio per day in 2025. Assuming the drop comes mostly from Jubilee. That would be roughly 7kbopd in total due Tullows 40% odd share in Jubilee. So around 83kbopd for Jubilee. Quite a drop from the 100kbopd Rahul promised if that is the case and would explain things. However, surely it doesn't take into account any new wells that are being drilled. Unless Jubilee is significantly under performing now I just can't see it. Hard to tell what the hell is going on at the moment ... hence the extremely low volumes I guess. Everyone is just watching and waiting.

If Rahul was pushed I'd say whoever did it has a lot to answer for. We were 26p and rising at the time he resigned and just about to get a positive tax arbitration result. We'd be well over 35 if they'd waited till things were stable and then given him the boot.

I think not a lot, as this is from the November trading update:

“ · 2024 Group production reiterated at c.62 kboepd, as previously guided.”

To bring the average down from 62 to 59 and given the figures for the last 3 months aren’t known to bring the average down to 59 if my maths is right it would mean Jubilee production was around 10kbopd down each month in the last quarter. Which I doubt, however if it were true it would explain why Rahul has gone and were 23p. Or is it some of the gas numbers removed as it’s not been paid for. Not sure if they would do that or not. So may well just be Stifel’s usual pessimistic outlook when doing Tullow forecasts.

I’m starting to wonder if the January update is now going to be a surprise RNS dropping unannounced.

Must say I’m a little on edge too. Not since the Gabon coup when I stupidly dumped all my shares at bottom and then bought back 10% higher have I been so nervous. I do think if it was dire we’d already be under 20p, can’t be an equity raise as would be a drop in the ocean and they’ve said the 2025’s were covered. It is more likely the bond issue raised by Stifel is one of the options they were considering. You’d hope they’d consider all options to find the best option for the company and we know the likes of Stifel like to create an environment of fear and doubt to drop the price. But then why haven’t the Jubilee production numbers been published on the Ghana Petroleum Commission website since September and why did Rahul resign. I really wish they’d just release that damned January Trading Statement, stop all this uncertainty and set the share price rocketing.

You need to remember that those production numbers are Stifel’s projections and not direct information from Tullow.

“ Other than that, we left the meeting comfortable with our projections of Tullow’s 2025 working interest production (-5% yoy at 59kbpd) and capex (+9% yoy at USD250mn). “

It would be illegal for Tullow to give them January update information without making it public. Plus you need to remember they have been very pessimistic in the past regarding the tax case. Everyone has an agenda and they are no exception.

Can't make sense of this. Are these just jollies for oil execs???

Pre conference tour on the website

https://www.eapce25.eac.int/index.php/excursions/pre-conference/pre-kenya

Post conference tour on the website

https://www.eapce25.eac.int/index.php/excursions/post-conference/post-kenya

Then there's this on the website:

https://www.eapce25.eac.int/index.php/exploration/exploration-kenya

Seen this on Twitter

https://x.com/Kenya_Oil/status/1881419951158006062

📰State rekindles search for oil and gas after Tullow Oil setback http://standardmedia.co.ke/business/business/article/2001509943/state-rekindles-search-for-oil-and-gas-after-tullow-oil-setback

@pspetroleum_ke

@EnergyMinK

➡️Bid round to be announced in March 2025 during the East Africa Petroleum Conference to be held in Dar, Tanzania.

Seems strange to be doing that if Tullow's not going ahead, unless they are offshore blocks. However, think oilers would be hesitant to invest given what has happened with Tullow.

Thanks. complicated stuff by the sounds of it. I guess it's going to be a very interesting January update. Just hope Tullow comes up with the goods and the market likes it.

Interesting .... thanks J.Bond

If I understand it correctly, sounds like Tullow have it covered and want to pay a little over half, then just keep the remaining portion on the same terms with an extended end date. Probably makes sense as an option for them I guess as would be on a better interest rate than they can get now and probably saves refinancing costs. I'm guessing bond holders don't have too much objection as they are almost par?

This statement will upset some though ;-) as I think as looks like it is ruling out an equity swap for debt:

2. Simultaneously agree to reprofile the remaining USD222.5mn over a longer period of time without benefiting from an equity upside.

Something is up ... found this on Twitter

https://x.com/RawlinsonJw/status/1877345916337766698

#TLW Asked for my details by Tullow as I hold the Senior. Guessing restructure coming as its too late for a Christmas card.... @Hedgewatch1

https://x.com/WShak1/status/1879969700672860546

Another Stifel note today, after speaking to management, they say:

Not assured that Tullow 7% 2025 juniors will be paid at maturity (HOLD), despite only 44 days

Still like 10.25% senior bonds (BUY)

I expect a consent solicitation, along with an offer, to be on its way.

Just doesn't seem right to me. RG has recently been buying bonds and the 2025's and 2026's are almost trading at par. Stifel we know like to short Tullow as do Hedgewatch (Brevarthan Research).

JBond have you heard anything?

I agree. They are waiting for something. Just not sure what ....

Could also be the results of the commercial viability of the Gabon find.

Anyone know when this will happen? Still not on the website and I emailed IR last week asking, but haven't got a response yet. Going by previous years it should be on Wednesday this week, so seems strange we don't have a date yet.

Https://x.com/stifeleuropefi/status/1879880046627717389?s=46

Stifle put out something on the bonds. Can’t read it unfortunately as not for retail investors. I do see that the 2025 and 2026 bonds are trading at roughly the same percentage and only a few percent off parr. Think that’s interesting and a good sign.

Many things may happen, however dilution isn't one of them. At this price if they issued 1.5 billion shares they'd make a little over £300m. Not much point in that really and not practically possible as would crash the share price in the process.

The only rumour I've seen on Rahul going is that he had a fallout with the two biggest holders and it was probably due to the share price. No way they are going to agree a new CEO who isn't focused on getting the share price up.