Member Info for antonvb

OK, thanks

Xxnjr where do you find the latest liftings information? Thanks

In the world of Tullow a 1% drop on an update is extremely positive. Dropped 10% on every past update in recent times.

I still think it’s because they’re planning on selling some production. Besides Kenya, they don’t have a lot to sell so must surely come from the non op portfolio. So you’d think if they were planning on selling off 5 or 10k of production they’d not include it in the forecast.

Lowest production in 2024 for Jubilee was 77kbopd in December. If we used that for 2025 it would be around 29kbood, plus 10kbood for TEN, plus 10kbopd for non op. That gives you 49bood and add 6kboode for the gas and you get 55bopde. Then you have to assume the 2 new Jubilee wells would have some positive effect, so surely it should be higher. At least you’d think so and Stifel thought so too. Be interesting to see the production numbers for January when those get released. Has been mentioned on here today already, doesn’t appear to be anything in the update that would have caused the delay in releasing it. So will we a surprise RNS soon?

The past few updates this BB has been flooded with the 10p brigades postings after the update. Not much out of them today it seems. Why? Because everything in the update is pretty much already known or suspected and don’t think there is anything in there not priced in already or that they can use to scare us. While things could be a lot better Tullow isn’t going bust and the shorts will need to close. We just need the new CEO yesterday now.

All the negativity on here in the past month has been from holders and the 10p brigade haven’t made an appearance. Yet the holders wonder why the share price is weak. You seriously need to sell if you have no faith. Holding and continually moaning about the share is ridiculous and counter productive. Plenty other shares out there to choose from.

Good, bad, indifferent…. one thing it does is takes away uncertainty. Pretty clear now why Rahul is going as Jubilee production is down and this statement suggests he was pushed by the big holders who want shareholder returns.

“ The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO.”

Also I think in terms of production numbers and the drop in 2025 you need to look at this statement.

“ The Group is considering disposals of certain non-core assets in order to accelerate deleveraging to its target of net debt of below $1 billion and gearing of less than one times. Disposals will only be considered where the level of proceeds would be accretive to both equity and leverage.”

I think the drop is possibly due to them selling off some of their production. Perhaps Gabon or Cote, hopefully Kenya too.

I'm nervous about tomorrow, however there is one thing giving me a lot of hope too. All the negative posting in the past few days on here has been from holders rather than the 10p brigade. A 5% drop today at this share price is nothing. We'll recover that in the blink of an eye tomorrow if the update doesn't have any nasty surprises. Let's hope whatever the reason it was delayed for has been sorted and this can finally start going in the right direction ...... GLA

Hope I'm not wrong, however I don't think there is anything major that the market knows that we don't. Looking at volumes over the past 3 months the days with big volumes have coincided with events and announcements. Since the 7th of January there have been extremely low volumes, so looks like everyone is taking a wait and see approach. I guess that is understandable as we have a CEO that has resigned with no replacement yet, declining production in Jubilee and we didn't even know when the January update would be published till a few days ago. Too much uncertainty for most. Not to mention the fact that we have had Trump coming to power in January which has also created some uncertainty.

I'm very nervous about tomorrow, however if it were going to be a total train smash I suspect we'd be under 20p already. GLA ..... here's to hoping tomorrow is the start of a brighter future for Tullow's long suffering share holders.

28th Nov 2024 7:00 am RNS November Trading Update - 22 million volume (Sell)

5th Dec 2024 7:00 am RNS Board Change - 12 million volume (Sell)

11th Dec 2024 - 24 million volume (Buy)

12th Dec 2024 5:21 pm RNS Statement re Possible Offer - 32 million volume (Buy)

13th Dec 2024 7:00 am RNS Statement re Possible Offer - 25 million volume (Sell)

17th Dec 2024 11:48 am RNS Termination of preliminary discussions with Kosmos - 25 million volume (Sell)

2nd Jan 2025 5:16 pm RNS Successful outcome of Ghana Tax Arbitration - 6 million volume (Buy)

3rd Jan 2025 - 32 million volume (Buy)

6th Jan 2025 - 11 million volume (Buy)

I'm thinking the delay in announcing the date of the trading update was related to the following two points from the November update.

· Free cash flow is expected to be $150-200 million, below previous guidance of $200-300 million due to timing of payments, namely the incremental Jubilee lifting now expected in early January 2025 and overdue gas payments from the Government of Ghana.

- The final position within the revised range for 2024 will depend on realised prices of four cargos yet to price, progress on receipt of the overdue gas payments from the Government of Ghana (currently c.$40 million outstanding) and working capital movements.

It says they need to price 4 cargoes and seems the average lifting is for 950,000 barrels.

950,000 x 4 x $70 oil = $266,000,000

950,000 x 4 x $80 oil = $304,000,000

So looks like the difference between $70 and $80 oil is roughly $38m, which is close to the difference between the $150m and $200m FCF forecast. Fingers crossed we get FCF of over $200m.

It's starting to drive me crazy. There is not a lot in the previous trading statements and they're very thin on details, so why is it being delayed. I just don't see them delaying it for any big announcement like Kenya or a new find, however hopefully I'm wrong. But if that was the case Rahul wouldn't have resigned. If there was something negative and material to the company they'd surely have to release an RNS rather than just delay the trading statement? Surely it must either be they're fanatically trying to fix an issue that caused the drop in production during Q4 2024, trying desperately to get Ghana to pay something for the gas or waiting till all the January liftings have been done (I see in January 2024 one was done on 30th January). But then why not just schedule the update for the 31st of January and skip all this uncertainty???

J.bond ... just seen this on Twitter. Do you by any chance know if this is old news related to the Stifel report or a new development?

https://x.com/RawlinsonJw/status/1883812638062453122

"#tlw I'm waiting for an email regarding my Senior Bonds and just thinking what may happen. A coupon bump and a sweetener? Or a chunk of equity under restructure? Time will tell."

Logically if you think about it they would only delay the trading update if they were waiting in the hope of getting some positive news to report included in it, given the poor production numbers. If negative news was potentially around the corner you’d get the trading update out ASAP. Therefore, I suspect it must be FCF related and they’re hoping to get a gas payment or something like that included. Another remote possibility that hasn’t been mentioned is that they’re pushing GRA hard to drop or settle the other 2 tax cases (not sure they’d delay the update for that though).

Well if you think it’s going to 17p you should sell and go short.

I got the same response tonight….

Hi Anton,

Our next Trading Statement is expected towards the end of the month (exact date TBC).

Regards

Matthew

Thinking out loud ....

The January trading update is either positive or negative.

If it were positive and you were (or weren't) waiting for news I don't think you'd delay the update.

If it were negative I think you may try delay the inevitable or wait to include something positive if it were imminent.

We "know" the trading update is "negative" as we saw the declining Jubilee production numbers yesterday.

It is unlikely they can just delay bad news to delay the inevitable as they have a responsibility to report material facts.

So if it's positive news what is it?

- January lifting payments ... seems unlikey so late in the month

- Results of the Perenco drill commercial viability ... possibly

- Refinancing ... seems unlikely

- Kenya FDP ... seems unlikely, however the decision date for EPRA was 31 December 2024 and has already been extend twice in the past

- New CEO ... very unlikely

- Takeover ... seems unlikely

- There are technical issues with the Jubilee field they are hoping to announce as resolved ... quite possibly

- Something else that no one has thought of ... who knows?

Well one thing is certain, we've got till Friday next week or it becomes the February update.

RG is in the know. He obviously knows the bonds will be paid, so he can make a very nice return on them without tying up his cash for years. He’ll get his return in the 25’s in 3 months and the 26’s in 18 months from his purchase in December. Buying shares is more tricky as when directors sell shares it typically causes the share price to drop. With Tullow it would probably cause it to crash. So that is a long term investment and more of a gesture to show the company is OK.

The million dollar question is why we don’t have a date for the January trading update yet? Something is delaying it for sure.

What I find bizarre is that I've only seen one post the whole day suggesting that we're heading below 20p. Did the 10p brigade go all in at 20p before the announcement of the arbitration and are just waiting nervously now or are they asleep? Can't help but feel that we'll see a rebound tomorrow. Gogadget makes a good point that Kosmos are more or less equal partners in Jubilee and seemed happy enough to want the whole field. The big shorts have had an exit point around 20p in the recent past so will we bounce up sharply from there.

And will we be waking up to a January Update RNS update tomorrow morning, as it's looking less and less likely we're going to get the date in advance.

looking at the daily graph it looks like the drop started at 12:00 today and appears to be caused by someone unloading a million shares quickly. this seems to have resulted in the 7% drop, with the production numbers as the back drop driving the price down from there. i guess when volumes are so low and there's a climate of uncertyainty, that's all it takes.

tradedate currency price volume tradevalue tradetype miccode

2025-01-22t12:02:36z gbp 22.0055 150000 33,015 off-book xlon

2025-01-22t12:02:16z gbp 22.033 147500 32,494.25 off-book xlon

2025-01-22t12:01:55z gbp 22.1618 150000 33,240 off-book xlon

2025-01-22t12:01:32z gbp 22.1609 150000 33,240 off-book xlon

2025-01-22t12:01:15z gbp 22.24 150000 33,360 off-book xlon

2025-01-22t12:00:52z gbp 22.2247 150000 33,330 off-book xlon

2025-01-22t12:00:28z gbp 22.3045 150000 33,450 off-book xlon

i'm tending to think that we'll see a bounce tomorrow (subject to not getting a ****ty january update)

Steady ... people getting a bit tetchy on the 7% drop.

By the way ... where's the 10p brigrade today?