Member Info for antonvb

JMAX you honestly need help if you have nothing better to do with your life then search my postings looking for conspiracy theories. If anything that backs up my posting being consistent and honest about my position.

Thanks for all your valuable inputs. I’ll take it that no one has a clue if the 26 bond holders have received their email yet.

A thread dedicated to me … I’m flattered.

JMAX how much of your life did you waste going through my thousands of posts to find those two? Just proves I’ve been honest and admitted to my mistakes.

TankerQ …. Been in profit until very recently. Have an average of 19p as first bought in 2020 at 9.7p. I believed this would get to £1 as Kenya was looking likely. I think if it wasn’t for the change of government it would have happened. Of course given where we are now in hindsight I should have sold in the 60’s. I’ve always been honest about my position and intentions and only have one account on here.

What now….. well I’m waiting to see what happens with the appointment of a new CEO and think there’s more chance of 30p in the near future than 10p. But hey, what do I know, so who knows.

Looks like all the narcissists are out today….

If I'm not mistaken the 2025 bonds need to be repaid by 01 March, so we should get an RNS soon and will hopefully be positive.

Also, has anyone heard anything further regarding the 2026 bonds? There were some rumours going around from some bond holders that they were awaiting on an email.

Interim CEO is in charge from Monday, so a bit too soon for that. However, yes comms from IR is poor and very little info is given out. The deadline for the Kenyan FDP approval passed nearly 2 months ago and not a word out of them in this regard.

Https://peopledaily.digital/news/senator-vows-to-stop-oil-from-leaving-turkana

It’s suspiciously quiet on the Kenya front. We’re more than a month past the EPRA approval date for the FDP of 31 December and not a peep from either side. The new energy minister seemed to want to revive the project last year and surely Tullow must want it to go ahead. So surely it can’t be completely dead and just sitting in purgatory.

https://www.energy.go.ke/sites/default/files/KAWI/strategicplan/Final%20Draft%20Strategic%20Plan%20with%20sig.pdf

If I had the influence to get rid of Rahul, I’d be looking for a new CEO that knows how to get something from the Kenya asset by hook or by crook.

supercooper i agree and disagree. it would only take £265m to double the share price, so it's not impossible for that to happen as it is not a significant amount in relation to the market. also, people always chase the money, so if this fell into favour again and rose quickly, it could easily get chased up to 40, 50, 60p again. is it likely to happen, i don't know and probably a long shot. however, for it to happen it needs a catalyst and people need to want to buy tullow shares again. the issue at the moment is there is a lot of uncertainty, no catalyst and holders are ****ging the share off. i get a lot of flack for telling people to reign it in, however who wants tullow shares when the holders don't even want them.

for me the big unknown is jubilee production and a lot hinges on that. in 2024 it dropped around 2 to 3kbopd per month from july. has it stabilised or is it still dropping at that rate. we just don't know and perhaps tullow don't even know. also, a lot is riding on the 2 wells being drilled this year. what will that do to the production numbers ... we just don't know and will probably only be known by q4 2025.

then there is good old kenya. if anything will be sold to me the only thing that makes sense to sell is kenya. question is who would buy that given it seems apparent the kenyan government don't want it developed and keep kicking the can down the road. unless they have an agenda of course. there is another election predicted in 2027 so there is a chance a new government may come in that takes a different view, however that is a a long way away and after the 2026 bonds need to be settled. a great outcome would be if they could sell it to the kenyan government or to someone with the money to develop it. there's $2 billion of exploration costs that can be recovered, so even if it was sold for $1 and they keep the right to be reimbursed their exploration costs over time it would be a great deal. surely there has to be some kind of deal to be made regarding kenya that works for everyone, just needs the right deal maker you'd think. it may be helpful if we could get a new ceo who has some influence in africa and knows how to get deals done.

Smh...... An extra 1.5 billion shares issued would raise a paltry £265m at the current price. Who would buy them though, as they'd probably only be worth a few pence by the time they were issued. Plus all the risk would remain unchanged and as it stands today. Just a nonsense really.

Typically from what I've seen over the past few years is that every time a short closes the price rises from 5 to 10%. Then the following day it drops when the shares are sold off. I wonder if today's rise is one of them closing or if it's just two fingers up to Rahul. I should probably dump everything before close and buy it back lower tomorrow, however as usual I'm not going to and will just kick myself tomorrow instead.

A lot of holders on here talking about us getting to a ridiculously low share price. They need to remember that the further we drop towards 0p the less there is to gain for the shorts, yet the potential for losses remains infinite. Pretty much all the big shorts have been taken out over 20p, so do they take their profit sub 20p or do they wait in the hope Tullow goes bust. The waiting strategy didn't work out too well them in 2020 and previously when we dipped under 20p, so I know what I'd do if I were them. While unlikely, imagine if Kenya was approved or sold, they fixed the Jubilee production issues or made a discovery in Gabon while you're holding short. The price would rocket. Then there's the catalysts for moderate rises like a new CEO RNS, RG reinvesting the profits from his 2025 bonds into Tullow shares, Ghana paying the gas bill, etc.

I've still got a good feeling about this and think we'll be back over 30p by the time we get a new CEO and the 2025's are paid. But hey, what do I know! GLA

PS: Also a lot of talk of buying it at this price or a low ball offer, however I think that's just not realistic. The major holders have significantly higher averages than 20p, so would not let that happen. I also don't think they would agree a restructuring at their expense to save the 2026 bond holders. Certainly not till 2026 and we'd gotten into the position of not being able to repay the bonds and it was basically game over.

Up nearly 10% today. Great opportunity for those holders who keep whining we're going to 1p, 7p, 10p etc. to cash out.

Thanks Xxnjr. Appreciate the response. There is a tendency to accuse those posting negativity as being short and I have been guilty of it in the past. In fairness mostly it's been what I call the 10p brigade, a few usual suspects that just pop in on a bad day and profess doom without giving any facts to back up their argument.

I got in by chance in 2020 when Covid hit and have held too long as I firmly believed Kenya would happen. Guess we'll see what happens next, however don't think I'm ready to sell just yet.

Here's a question for you xxnjr. You appear to be more knowledgeable than most on here regarding the workings of Tullow and the O&G industry. So the question is what is your agenda here? And I ask the question seriously and respectfully. You appeared to start posting in this forum around November when things started to decline and your postings tend to highlight the negative (admittedly there has been a lot to highlight). So I don't see someone with your sentiment and analysis of the situation holding Tullow shares and just watching it drop like the rest of us. So surely you would have sold some time ago and are no longer be holding, yet you continue to post. That in itself is fine, however it is unusual for someone with no vested interest to do so. Have to be honest and it does lead me to believe you are short, as if you were confident in your analysis and felt the share price was going to drop why wouldn't you?

Https://x.com/TullowGhanaLtd/status/1886381357212787185

Also GNPC met with Tullow and Shell (seperately)

https://x.com/GNPCGhana/status/1886402314971324804

https://x.com/edabambirebawa/status/1885325044626202866

https://x.com/NDCZONGO/status/1885331400527696089

Supercooper you and everyone else can post what you like and I am aware that facts are facts. I am also entitled to post what I like. Others are free to ignore me, reply back or filter me. I'm not trying to shut down debate and am also fully aware things are not great at the moment, as I'm sure pretty much every holder on here is too. However, you must surely agree that I have a point. Why hold if you believe there is no coming back from this and why publically slate the company if you're hoping for the share price to go up. Sentiment is everything and you're going to need to sell your shares to someone one day. To do that you need an environment where there are others willing to buy them, hopefully at a premium.

It's time to stop bit ching. The holders are now doing more damage to the share price than the shorts. They must really be laughing watching all of you rip Tullow apart while you self destruct. If you're at a loss I sympathise with you, however whatever the circumstances it was you that clicked the buy button and no one else. We are where were are and your constant moaning over the past month is not helping one iota. Despite what some say, people read these boards before investing and no one is going to invest after reading longs moaning day after day. At the end of the day you need a positive environment if you want the share price to go up. I'm fully aware that everyone stopping moaning is not a magic bullet and won't suddenly get us back to 60p. However, it is certainly a step in the right direction and constant moaning while expecting the share price to rise is counter intuitive and it is not helping in any way shape of form.

If you have no faith, then there is honestly no point in holding. I have no idea how this is going to play out and I may regret it, however I'm holding out for Jubilee decline being arrested, an asset sale, refinancing the 2026 bonds and a new CEO with some vision who delivers share holder value. Going to be a struggle, however not impossible to turn this around. ALIMHO of course.

It’s at times like this that I wonder to myself if I should have listened to JMAX’s advice and gone all in on UOG when he was ramping it at 0.36p.

Looking at their website https://www.tullowoil.com/our-operations/ these appear to be the options:

Côte d’Ivoire - 3 Licences and 1 Producing field - circa 1 kbopd production

Gabon - 20 Licences and 22 Producing fields - circa 12 kbopd production

Ghana - 2 Licences and 2 Producing fields - circa 42 kbopd production

Kenya - 2 Licences and 0 Producing fields - 470 MMBL net 2023 2C recoverable resources

Argentina - 3 Licences

Got to make a dent in the debt if they sell something or what's the point. Can't see them selling anything in Ghana as they need the revenue. Côte d’Ivoire and Argentina can't be worth much. So I guess that leaves Gabon and Kenya. Would make more sense to unload Kenya if they can, as that appears to be taking a lifetime and Gabon accounts for around 20% of revenue.