Member Info for antonvb

Ah, I see .... one of the old I'm long but this is going bust by the end of the week crowd.

Fogthemogg your short is running out of road fast .... suggest you cash in and don't make the same mistake I did by not selling in the 60's

How have we got to the point were the holders are berating those who are ramping this. You should all be doing your damdest to get others to invest and not the opposite. Are you stupid or what? Or are you so bitter with your loss that you'd prefer to see Tullow go bust than have others jump in at this price and make some profit. The phycology of investing is a funny thing and I saw this type of behavior when I first came across Tullow sub 10p and again when it dropped from 34p to 14p in 2020. A typical example of this is HappyInvestor100 who still keeps banging on about a rights issue years later, because they exited at the wrong time in 2020 and then there's Krakenoil who jumped to Enquest in 2020 just at the wrong time and now still posting on here years later saying the bonds won't get paid. Unbelievable!

Anyway .... I think we'll start to see this go up this week as we're due an RNS on the 2025 bonds by the end of the week and Tullow have already said they have the funds available to pay these and RG certainly thinks they'll be paid.

Https://citinewsroom.com/2025/02/tullow-chairman-meets-mahama-reaffirms-strong-partnership/

Https://www.tipranks.com/news/ratings/tullow-oil-strong-buy-rating-despite-target-price-reduction-highlighting-long-term-growth-potential

Not sure you should be asking me for investment advice. However, 14p was the low in 2020 after we tanked from the 30's. It's impossible to time it at bottom, however if it is going back to 30p there's not a huge amount in it if you buy at 14p, 15p or 16p. As a lot on here have said ... the current share price is just algo controlled and not truly linked to fundamentals. So if this does start to go up it will get noticed. It only has to go up 1.6p at the moment to show a 10% increase. that would put it in the top risers. If that happens for a day or two it will get chased back up. You see it with so many stocks and they have to go up and down for the markets to make money.

Https://www.facebook.com/TullowGhanaLtd

Posted 1 hour ago....

Earlier this week, our Board Chairman, Phuthuma Nhleko together with Richard Miller, our new interim Group CEO met with Ghana’s President John Mahama to reaffirm our strong commitment to the growth of Ghana’s energy sector.

Key issues discussed included the significant potential of gas as a key driver of economic growth and revenue generation, and the continued need for a conducive business environment to strengthen investor confidence and foster long-term collaboration.

President Mahama, in response, underscored the vital role of the energy sector in Ghana’s economic advancement, underlining the importance of gas for the country, while emphasizing the urgent need for an economic reset to make way for business investments.

Other members present at the meeting were Tullow Ghana’s Managing Director, Jean-Medard Madama and Deputy Managing Director, Cynthia Lumor. The Minister for Energy and Green Transition (MoE), John Abdulai Jinapor, Acting CEO of Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), Kwame Ntow Amoah, Presidential Advisor and Special Aide, Joyce Bawa Mogtari and Energy Ministry Technical Advisor, Ishmael Ackah were also present.

Since inception Tullow and its Jubilee and TEN partners have invested over $19 billion in the sector, contributing more than $6 billion in revenue to the Ghanaian government.

And assuming Tullow isn't going bust, at what point will the shorts decide to exit, thus pushing the price up. Surely the lower this gets the risk to reward ratio increases significantly.

Another reminder of what happened in 2020:

20/03/2020 Share Price: 9.75p Oil Price: $22.59

21st Apr 2020: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/appointment-of-rahul-dhir-as-ceo-d0au0e47et8pgd9.html

23rd Apr 2020: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/sale-of-entire-stake-in-uganda-to-total-for-575m-qlgpoc3l04jhxn0.html

19/06/2020 Share Price: 33.75p Oil Price: $39.80

02/10/2020 Share Price: 14.29p Oil Price: $37.05

7th Oct 2020 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/rbl-redetermination-completed-cmd-on-25-november-4ygxunisvg1phkw.html

04/12/2020 Share Price: 34.13p Oil Price: $46.26

I always have rose tinted glasses on, however I think things are not quite as dire as they seem or some believe. Obviously depends what your average is though. We just need to get through this period of uncertainly and get a new CEO in place ASAP. Also, the one thing I find very telling is that since the start of the year, there have been no increases in shorts above the reporting threshold. If it was dire they'd be all over this. So why is that?

I think to suggest that Tullow IR would be proactive is a bit of a stretch. It's likely they're focusing on sorting out the 2025's first, which has to be done by the 1st of March. Then they will look at preparing the YE accounts, as what happens with the 2025's has a material impact on the what is reported in the YE accounts.

Https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/

2024 Full Year Results 25 Mar 2025

Much later in March than usual ..... so more weeks of uncertainty :-(

Posted on the wrong thread, so reposting here ... no one reads my posts about Kenya .... LOL

We saw something very similar in 2020 and I remember it well as it felt very bleak. The share price recovered into the 30's from the Covid low and then tanked down to 14p, before recovering back to the 30's and then going on up to the 60's. Below is the timeline:

20/03/2020 Share Price: 9.75p Oil Price: $22.59

21st Apr 2020: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/appointment-of-rahul-dhir-as-ceo-d0au0e47et8pgd9.html

23rd Apr 2020: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/sale-of-entire-stake-in-uganda-to-total-for-575m-qlgpoc3l04jhxn0.html

19/06/2020 Share Price: 33.75p Oil Price: $39.80

02/10/2020 Share Price: 14.29p Oil Price: $37.05

7th Oct 2020 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/rbl-redetermination-completed-cmd-on-25-november-4ygxunisvg1phkw.html

04/12/2020 Share Price: 34.13p Oil Price: $46.26

Will this happen again? I don't know, however while production is lower now the oil price is much higher. It does seem to me the current drop from the 20's is not based on anything we don't already know. However, more from people losing faith and Tullows lack of clear communication. So hopefully once the 2025's are paid, the 2024 results are out and we have a new CEO we'll be well on our way to the 30's again. The icing on the cake would be a nice asset sale RNS and Roald reinvesting his 2025 bond profits into shares. Looks pretty bleak at the moment, however I don't think all is lost as surely we've got to be in better shape now than in we were in 2020?

We saw something very similar in 2020 and I remember it well as it felt very bleak. The share price recovered into the 30's from the Covid low and then tanked down to 14p, before recovering back to the 30's and then going on up to the 60's. Below is the timeline:

20/03/2020 Share Price: 9.75p Oil Price: $22.59

21st Apr 2020: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/appointment-of-rahul-dhir-as-ceo-d0au0e47et8pgd9.html

23rd Apr 2020: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/sale-of-entire-stake-in-uganda-to-total-for-575m-qlgpoc3l04jhxn0.html

19/06/2020 Share Price: 33.75p Oil Price: $39.80

02/10/2020 Share Price: 14.29p Oil Price: $37.05

7th Oct 2020 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/rbl-redetermination-completed-cmd-on-25-november-4ygxunisvg1phkw.html

04/12/2020 Share Price: 34.13p Oil Price: $46.26

Will this happen again? I don't know, however while production is lower now the oil price is much higher. It does seem to me the current drop from the 20's is not based on anything we don't already know. However, more from people losing faith and Tullows lack of clear communication. So hopefully once the 2025's are paid, the 2024 results are out and we have a new CEO we'll be well on our way to the 30's again. The icing on the cake would be a nice asset sale RNS and Roald reinvesting his 2025 bond profits into shares. Looks pretty bleak at the moment, however I don't think all is lost as surely we've got to be in better shape now than in we were in 2020?

Saw this last month on Twitter, however never shared on here as hard to tell exactly what it means and not sure if it has any significance. Sharing now as about the only thing I’ve seen on Kenya for quite some time. Seems a very legitimate company. Would really be nice of Tullow to tell us what the hell is going on in Kenya, given the FDP deadline for EPRA approval was 31 December 2024.

https://x.com/synergeticsep/status/1882721993239535763?s=46

https://www.synergeticdevelopmentgroup.com/

Thanks J.Bond

Fewdollorsmore I always oversimplify things, however my take is the market doesn't like risk or uncertainty. At the mere sniff of it they exit and stay away. Then, as Supercooper pointed out, if there is any news they know first and can jump back in. It works on both sides, which is why we've not seen any big shorts increasing. Reality is no one really knows which way this is going to go at the moment. If we're going to get good news in 2 weeks it doesn't really matter today that it's 17p, as will go back over 20p in a blink. If we get bad news ...... well I try not to think about that.

It was stated in the January update that they'd settle the 2025's and sort the rest out later. I think there's a little too much emphasis on the 2026's at the moment. If i recall correctly, they fall due in May next year. So why would you refinance them now, especially if you thought you were going to get a higher interest rate now than the current one and you felt interest rates were going to drop over the course of this year.

"· Management plans to repay the 2025 Notes at maturity with a combination of cash in hand and drawings from the Glencore facility, and to refinance and simplify the Group's capital structure during the remainder of 2025."

At the moment there is too much uncertainty and too many unknowns. We need Tullow to communicate a clear strategy with proper detail in it. I really hope the year end results presentation will go some way to settling the ship and give real detail of how Tullow plans to move forward.

PS: J.Bond have you heard any news regarding the bonds?

Thanks xxnjr. Really hoping we're not going to see continued decline.

Admit = xxnjr …. Stupid autocorrect

I think what will be interesting to see is when the 2025 bonds are settled, what will Roald Goethe do with the money he gets. Will he buy shares with it to reduce his average, will he buy 2026 bonds or will he just reinvest elsewhere.

Shaping up to be an interesting few weeks ahead …..

admit … any predictions on Jubilee production so far this year? Nothing on the GPC website yet and that worries me a bit, as publication of bad production numbers on there have tended to have been delayed.

Richard Miller is not the new CEO. He's the CFO who has been appointed as the caretaker CEO until they find Rahul's replacement. The 2025 bonds need to be paid back by the end of the month and the full year results should be published in the first week or March, so I suspect as CEO and CFO he's a little too stressed to be thinking about sending out an opening statement. Hopefully, he can work a bit of magic into the full year results to at least get this back over 20p and reverse some of the negative sentiment.

If you can’t actually read you shouldn’t be investing or trolling. Maybe try reading it all again and get your facts straight. Might also want to consider the fact that the last quoted post of mine here is 18 months old.

Right … enough engaging with the narcissists and back to ignoring them. I don’t have to justify myself to anyone on here, what they think of me is irrelevant in my life and I don’t give a s…