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It’s also worth noting that the company will save around 40m per annum moving forwards after the recent reorganisation……
There was also the sale of the Nine Elms plots, which after the 35m that was to be reinvested leaves 75m…..but I’m not sure whether this has already been factored into any financial statements?
Just caught up with the posts from over the weekend, some great discussion and interesting points raised with regards to the results and pay deal etc.
I’m very much looking forward to Thursday to see what we can learn moving into the next financial year. I’m expecting some short term ‘noise’ and as others have pointed out - we could potentially see a bit more downside yet…..but that could present some excellent buying opportunities for smart investors.
JB - thanks for the info. Returns is something I’ve never really considered but certainly something that could make a difference.
Yes, I do hope that the decline in letters reverses for now, however, let’s not forget that the long term goal….Royal Mail was once ‘a letter delivery service that also delivers parcels’ ……it is now and aiming to be ‘an international parcel delivery service that also delivers letters’
My prediction for the results is that we will meet expectations with regards to the numbers, although my gut feeling is that parcel volumes will be down slightly compared to the same period last year……which will of course cause hysteria and fuel that shorts fire.
I think there will be words like ‘challenging’ thrown into the mix which might dampen sentiment.
Simx - thanks for posting the link to the article regarding the market outlook.
It makes for very interesting reading and agrees with a lot of the things that I have been posting with regard to e-commerce and the logistics sector. I think the future for RMG is a bright one and hopefully the share price will adjust accordingly at some point in the future.
I think we’re going to have to be patient though and if we’re being realistic I think parcel volumes might be a little bit down when compared to the same period last year (perhaps, we will find out next week). The doom and gloomers and the short brigade will tell you ‘it’s all over’ for RMG but don’t believe it for a second.
For what it’s worth, based on the fundamentals here (yes, I know the fundamentals don’t always tell the WHOLE story) I think that RMG is worth 650p +……..whether that is ever achieved or not is another matter.
I believe in the fundamentals and the business. So although I’m probably going to have to hold onto these for a bit longer than I was anticipating I’m happy to be patient here and hopefully the business will speak for itself.
Mike1974 - Unfortunately, where there is money to be made, people will find a way. Especially when these people have power, influence and an almost bottomless supply of cash.
There’s loopholes and workarounds and these institutions know every trick in the book.
As private investors all we can hope is that we can take the odd acorn and run back to the nest with it.
Dynamofc - I absolutely agree with that. The new parcel hubs and reintroduction of the railway I would hope is going to create a greater demand for good drivers and posties. As I have said in previous posts I hope that the pay deal is a fair one, for all parties concerned.
It’s a shame that the workers feel that way at the moment. Hopefully the matter can be resolved as quickly as possible and everyone can pull in the same direction again for this solid business.
Tygra - I would echo the sentiment from JB and Redceo. I think you have got an excellent entry price in my opinion….but I think you have done the right thing by only starting small for now in this turbulent market.
I think there are going to be some short term headwinds for the company to over come but I think that things look very positive in the medium/long term…..the business has grown tremendously over the last few years, with the covid pandemic the catalyst for greater demand on logistical services such as Royal Mail and the evidence shows that parcel volumes have remained 17% higher than pre pandemic levels.
In a better economy I think that e-commerce and online business to consumer transactions and the demand that will bring for a company like Royal Mail will only increase over time as customers want better and faster delivery times.
Royal Mail have two new huge parcel sorting hubs that are going to open over the next couple of years which should improve efficiencies and help ease demand on staff…..
Best of luck with your investment, hope that you make loadsa’ money.
I understand your viewpoint Redceo. It would obviously be an area of contention and wouldn’t please some shareholders. Just trying to find a way out of what could potentially be a difficult situation, for me personally I’d rather take a smaller divi and have the matter resolved in the hope of a gain in the share price.
I’m sure things will become clearer once the results are released and we will get a better picture of the current financials.
JB - I agree with that. I’d be willing to take a hit on the divi if it meant that a compromise is reached that satisfies all parties. I think the company is taking a bit of an uncompromising position at the moment but like you say hopefully the pay deal will be resolved sooner rather than later.
Not long until the final results. Very turbulent market still and can see it playing out this way for the rest of this year. I would be satisfied with results that meet expectations, I think it’s a case of damage limitation this year.
What do people think we should expect as the finial dividend this year, about 10p?
JB - I agree with you on GLS, it is a very valuable asset. I still think that the Royal Mail has alot to offer DK and potential investors, the UK is a very lucrative market and is still one of the biggest players in the e-commerce sector. The wheels are being put in motion to grow the business and become an international parcel delivery service.
I think DK pumping so much cash into Royal Mail and now Dodo is supporting evidence to suggest that parcel, freight and logistics is going to be a very strong sector in a better economy.
Just thought I’d share this article I seen on Stockopedia this morning. Looks like Mr.Kretinsky is very keen on e-commerce and logistics as he’s invested 60m into Dodo logistics along with his huge stake in Royal Mail…
‘PRAGUE, May 3 - Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky
will invest 60 million euros ($63.16 million) into logistics
firm DoDo over the next two years to support its international expansion, the company said on Tuesday.
DoDo was founded in 2015 and provides fast delivery services to customers in e-commerce, retail and food delivery. It aims to double its revenues year-on-year to 2 billion crowns ($85.36 million) in 2022, and the planned growth should be driven by markets outside the Czech Republic.
The group, majority-owned by its Czech founder, Michal
Mensik, has 2,000 couriers operating in seven European
countries, including Germany, Poland and Hungary.
Kretinsky earned his fortune by building his energy group
EPH into a major player in Europe, buying up unwanted coal power plants before expanding into other energy sources.
He has expanded his business and geographical footprint in recent years with investments in French media and retail, in German wholesale retailer Metro B4B.DE , and in the Royal Mail and Sainsbury's SBRY.L in the UK.
($1 = 0.9500 euros)
($1 = 23.4300 Czech crowns)
(Reporting by Robert Muller, editing by Jason Hovet)
((email@example.com; Reuters Messaging:
Deutsche post have delivered their Q1 results and they look very good. EUR 1.35bn profit against EUR 1.19bn in the same period last year. However, parcel volumes were slightly down, especially in B2C (as most of us would expect) and their income has been supported by their diversified business portfolio.
DerekRocholl - If you are reading this your analysis was correct. I’ve had a look and when they say ‘diversified portfolio’ it was kind of what I suspected - still within the remit of parcel and freight just in different forms, such as B2B, warehouse storage and I think they have a supply chain division.
What does this mean for Royal Mail? I think we can assume that parcel volumes will be down slightly. By how much I’m not too sure. In the good news departments Deutsche Post have also given a strong outlook for their growth over the next couple of years with EBIT to rise around 8.5% with plenty of investment going into their core business.
Scampthedog - The best quote from the article….
‘The Royal Mail's latest expansion of the service is understood to be part of its planned transition to become an international business focusing on parcels.’
This is what I like to see.
Scampthedog and Oligarch, thanks for your input with regards to the rail, it’s all interesting stuff, let’s hope that it comes to fruition.
Like you say scamp, probably not the ideal time for delivering such news to the workforce. Hopefully utilising the rail and fully operational parcel hubs will create a greater need for drivers and the business can go from strength to strength.
I think we’ve got a few hurdles to navigate first though…..