Member Info for Andyagogo

Mentioned recently may be paying off. Up to 15% invested now, from below 5%.

Hoping for lower equity levels over the next few weeks, however would expect some
sharp whipsaw moves in either direction as part of the process.

Just my best guess, as always.

Firstly, no one should make investment decisions based on BB posts.
Secondly, the vast majority of PI's who hold do not read financial BB posts,
let alone make a decision based on one.
Finally, PI Trading/investment decisions make about as much difference as a fart in a hurricane to the BT share price.

No one on these boards can talk down a multi billion market cap stock with
tens of millions traded on the daily.

What I might be concerned about is how will that pension deficit look
the way bond yields are heading ..?.

We are now in the £1.60's Outside of both an equity bear market and recession.

When both hit, where will the SP end up ....?.

As I can't answer that question will not click any rec., However, would say
that SP level may arguably surprise on the downside. Let's see.

You can make a (risky?) buy case for those utilities under renationalisation threat. (Which does
not really include BT).

We look to be heading for a snap general election - if you think Corbyn will Not take
power, stocks like NG, the water utilities, may bounce hard.

As the reverse may also very much apply, I'm not sure how good value a pre election buy would be-
depends perhaps how convinced you are that Jez is not the next PM.

Just random thoughts.

Well my guessestimate of sub 9 on a no deal exit is now looking
A tad too conservative (no pun intended).

The TA views I posted with the targets mentioned may possibly be playing out here.

Good weekend folks.

Absolutely!!.

The Tory government have arguably been a pernicious force for BT.

They may ironically have thrived under Labour.

I don't usually make s strong call on a share price,
as more than aware there are a multitude of factors at play.
However, I posted at the start of the summer that if the UK were
to leave without a deal, Lloyds would likely be available in the high 40's and RYA
under 9.

It's not even mid August yet and both stocks are about there.

FWIW folks, I might keep some cash on hand for 31 October.

This may be one of those times when being fully invested does not pay.

RYA will be hit hard on a No deal Brexit, which is looking
increasingly likely. I hold a very small amount only with a view to adding
lower, if available. I've posted several TA views on RYA which look
for a low of very approx 7.60-8.50. And anyone buying near 20
should not be investing/managing their own money.

On BT, you may be underestimating their growing debt pile coupled
with pension fund obligations when interest rates are heading for the floor.

We are neither in a recession (yet) or equity bear market.
If you add both of those in to the mix, is seeing BT near £1 that big
a call?.

Just to clarify, I'm not suggesting this will be the outcome,
it could double within 6 months (unlikely outside corporate action).
It was mentioned as a point for debate Only.
As a result I've not clicked Buy, Sell etc.

And that one of Johnson's first appointments is a SKY executive.

If you think a Johnson led administration is going to be more BT friendly
you are living in la la land imv.

Fleecy, would it be fair to say you did not see the current BT price 6 months ago?.

When the BT SP hit £5 in November 2015, how many people would have
guessed under £1.80 less than 4 years later?.

Very easy to dismiss lower levels, as have posters have all the way down.
And in term of near £1?, There was a ?.

With interest rates and bond yields plunging, that pension deficit is
is arguably looking increasingly ugly.

BT near £1 a share in 6 months?.

And before anyone dismisses that, at £5, £4 would not be seen, at £4, £3 would not be seen...

Those stocks are not primarily low because Of Brexit (which will be a disaster for the UK,
but that's besides the point).

Can you not see what many of those stocks have in common?,
their operating models are arguably under threat imv.

High dividend yields are often warning signs of risk.
Instead of focussing on yield most PI's would be far better served
looking at total return. What good is a high yield if your capital is being whittled away.

Sector overcapacity
Leaving the EU
Return of the Max.

As those are worked through (hopefully the Max returns)
we should see some very nice upside.

In the background is the wider economic cycle,
with recession risks growing atm.

Are we at the point of maximum pessimism?
Would doubt that, however that's just a guess.

* FAA (not FDA).

Ryanair (from memory) have never had any fatalities.
There was an emergency landing in Rome around 2008/9?,
caused by a flock of birds.

Either the Max is allowed back in service,
or it's not. As the eyes of the world are on Boeing and the FDA,
to imagine it would be certified safe to fly (and not be)
is a stretch of the imagination.
There is a possibility it won't return however,
would hope that's unlikely.

I hold RYA but have never flown them,
however get your point.

Mentioned the potential for taxes on the sector to increase a few weeks ago,
the subject has got a lot of attention since.

Does anyone have a view on the possibility of significant new sector taxation
in the years ahead?.

Any views appreciated thanks.

(CT contrast scan of the chest, abdomen and pelvis tomorrow - another nice dose of radiation ). )

Divi cut next year is my guess.

Just in case anyone was wondering ..

May be some concern the sector is
facing closer scrutiny on additional charges etc - I'm guessing on that one.

No food or drinks from Manchester Tenerife surprises me,
would have thought drinks in particular are lucrative on a 4hr flight time.