Member Info for Andyagogo

As mentioned ,this is just speculation on my part and not a reason to buy.

Their SP is Up approx 50% over the last 12 months, 300% plus over the last 5 years.

* 1303 - excuse the typos.

Under £13 is my add level, if available.

It would not surprise me if they bid post dermerger.
Just speculation on my part and not a sole reason to buy.

Added at just under 1403 this week, a little lucky with the timing.

Next week may be interesting for wider markets.
I'm looking for downside but as that would suit me with a large cash position atm,
Iaware of confirmation bias.

Quality post - appreciated.

Bonus points for the mention of Bowie's Low!.
I was listening to Bowie's 'Stage' yesterday, side 1 is exceptional.

Would be interested to hear your view on the Slow Boat to China article I posted earlier, thanks.

Worth a read:

Https://www.businessfast.co.uk/prudential-slow-boat-to-china/

I'm not making a buying case for either ULVR at this point or RYA btw!!.
Even though RYA is highly cyclical (that is a big understatement) and extraordinarily volatile
it generates bags of excess cash which it uses to rapidly reduce the share count.

Next plc, which I hold a small amount of, has done this more or else beautifully over
the past decade plus. Neither would I make a buy case for Next at this point, just for clarity.

Luck with your BT holding.

Unilever is not immune from sentiment swings, there have been months
where it has sold off sharply - the difference being it bounces back very sharply.

For a sustained and continued fall in a SP fundamentals will usually need
to weaken.

If a company keeps producing record results quarter after quarter, as with
Unilever, that's unlikely to happen.

BT is spending more money than is coming in, until there is at
least some sign that will change, The SP may continue to be under pressure -
unless you think there will be a bid.

When I mentioned, could BT end up near 1 GBP?, Under around 1.25- 1.30 is what I had
in mind.

BT and ULVR are very different businesses, however there is on
particularly salient difference and that's free cash flow.
Unilever generates enough free cashflow to cover CAPEX, dividends, pension contributions,
with plenty left over, year on year.
BT does not not - which is why net debt is increasing.
Note the increase in interest costs that BT reported at their last update.

Investors often confuse cash flow with free cash flow, they are different.
In other words on my take BT is not even covering it's running costs atm,
when dividends and pension contributions are factored in.

So there is no mystery why the BT share price is where it is.

All imv only, as always.

Mounting US China trade tensions are not an ideal backdrop for a demerger.
Nice opportunity at some stage but lower first would not be a surprise.

Any other thoughts on the direction of travel....?

The bottom line is net debt is increasing.

Free cash flow is being consumed by extra pension payments
and investment.

If/when those metrics change, then you can make a case for a re-rating.

Longish, if you need dividend income would hope you hold some
Investment Trusts to lower stock specific risk.

A valuation metric for BT imv.

When posters quote an ultra low multiple as a pointer to possible value,
It takes no account of the escalation in net debt or the pension deficit.

I mentioned a couple of weeks back..could BT get close to 1 GBP?,
now in to the 1.50's.

We are at these levels outside a wider equity bear market and recession.

Really terrible decision to hold the dividend, the market wanted clarity
and instead it's left with uncertainty.

Look at the VOD relative outperformance since their dividend cut.

Please do not mention 4-5 Euro a share!.

Have seen an updated TA view on RYA ( posted the original here sometime ago).
In a nutshell - it does not see much support until near 7,
the previous view was around 7.60.

As always it's just one person's TA take, nothing more.

4-5 a share?, Outside of a major recession and collapse in profitability, unlikely imv.

I just hope to goodness it will return to service, as would not wish to think through
the consequences - might need to buy a few EZJ along the way!.

The consensus appears to see Q4 '19 stateside, however would
be surprised if it's not in to 2020, perhaps Q1 2020.

Below is a development which may have some bearing:

Https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-737-max-panel-recommend-faa-change-certification-process-report-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

* Boeing (an Edit function on here would be helpful).

Leaving without a deal is no longer my main concern re RYA,
as the price falls more and more of this is factored in.

Main concern is the MAX, are Boring trying to fix a hardware issue ( raised height of the engines)
with a software fix?, Rather than addressing the landing gear, for example..

Warning - that's not an easy read with some details people may find distressing:

Https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-four-second-catastrophe-how-boeing-doomed-the-737-max-11565966629

It's still a very modest position so if that sounds in any way
impressive, it's not.

Slowly, slowly catch a money etc, as long as it's not a severe cold.

If we get another guidance cut (which now looks increasingly likely IMV ) we could easy
have another 10% down day.

I've closed off some trades from yesterday so back to about 10% invested overall.

This looks like a multi week corrective phase for wider equity markets - however as
mentioned yesterday would expect some sharp whipsaw moves on the way - just my best guess.

On RYA, back now to adding very slowly, if given the opportunity.

Have a good weekend folks.

Getting a lot of press attention.

Nicely timed to cause maximum disruption in peak season.

Arguably a question of When rather than IF for another guidance cut.
Looking unavoidable to me - just IMV Only.