Member Info for Andyagogo

Bottom of the G7 in GDP growth.

Consumer indebtedness in their worst shape since 1988.

The UK's total government debt at over £1.8 Trillion.

This all before we leave the EU - little wonder public opinion is rapidly shifting.

And people scratch their heads as to why the Lloyds share price has been hammered,
wake up time imv.

Jim, dear me!.

Last month I posted the Lloyds price before and after
the last 3 recessions.

Are you aware the levels Lloyds once traded at?,
your post would suggest No!. Good luck though.

Jimbo, in what way does Lloyd's record over the past 20 years convince
you to view the shares as .. a long term savings account?.

Unless.. recessions have now been abolished, impairments will never rise
AND

We all live happily ever after ;

How long before the rest of the economy tips over?.

Really hope this is not what the UK faces,
however the odds are increasing.

Low 50's would be my guesstimate.

I originally considered 2030 to 2035, however It is likely to happen sooner.

EEA membership first.

I can never remember a more inept Tory administration,
it's almost surreal.

As the % of the electorate with large student debt grows -
it increases by the best part of 500,000 voters a year,
the better chance Labour have of taking power.

Demographics are moving in Labour's favour.

This inept government have not even seen fit to reduce the interest
rate on student loans, what are they doing?, Some committee is looking
in to it.

Take a look at the relative 20 year share price performance.

Then you see very clearly why some of the best performing funds
Will NOT touch Lloyds, or other UK banks.

Observation, rather than argument.

It's why getting irate and angry about Brexit will not
change a thing.

It's also why the state of the UK economy outside of the EU
will ultimately determine whether we remain non members,
or rejoin.

I've previously posted that by 2020, there may be a clear majority in favour
of rejoining, and looking at the latest surveys, opinion appears to be moving
quickly in that direction- far sooner than I anticipated.

That being said, if Brexit is a great economic success,
rejoining is less likely.

Morbid, but true imv.

Approx 1,000 Leave voters dying a day,
over 2,000 new voters turn 18 every day in the UK.

The demographic sands are moving slowly but inevitably.

If Brexit is an incredible economic success,
younger generations may accept the UK outside the EU.

Not something I would bet on.

Getting hammered today, particularly House Builders.
Significant recent sector weakness.

Now if you think the UK economy will thrive post Brexit,
why is this happening...

It's an interesting few months ahead, medium term UK prospects
should become clearer a few months post Exit.

I hope the UK thrives outside the EU, let's see.

What opinion polls hugely underestimated was Labour support
at the last GE, that's the start of a demographic shift that favours Labour.

I'm making an observation.

If public opinion shifts, the UK is back in.

And to me demographics look to be shifting in that direction medium term.

If the UK thrives outside the EU, it's less likely to happen.

70% now favour Remain in NI.

Now as we are leaving the EU, many may think.. so what?

Well it's relevant because.. the next generation of UK politicians can
take us back in.

So public opinion is very relevant.

The better our economy performs outside the EU the less likely
we rejoin, however the reverse very much also applies.

We remain in the EU untill March 29th 2019,
a fact that appears often overlooked ).

If the economy continues to grow nicely outside of the EU,
then fantastic, but it's way too early to say.

Approximately, to hit my guesstimate of below 60 pence
by the end of August.

May buy a very small amount tomorrow,
personally I would not be comfortable with more than 2%
of total invested capital in VOD (appreciate this is highly subjective).

If I buy any Monday, it would be no more than 0.5%.

Best of luck to anyone holding.

The market attempts to discount future cashflow, so it's relevant imv.

Sentiment alone is a powerful factor, HSBA was friendless 3 years ago,
and the market reassessed it's outlook- fundamentals did not really change,
it was a positive sentiment shift.

On the VOD update we may find out if recent SP weakness
is overdone, or not.

Leaving that aside, there appears to be some caution on
costs the sector faces medium term. That may be justified by
subsequent events, it may not. It's why diversification in investments
is often wise.

Many PI's have questioned dividend stability.
There is far from bullish unanimity on VOD-
I'm cautious as per previous posts, some from last year.

See what they have to say on the update.

3g was la la land stuff, so I would discount that as a metric.

I'm looking at net debt and free cashflow
re CAPEX plans as outlined in the FY presentation.

The dividend may be covered by free cashflow this year,
which the CEO appears to think is some remarkable achievement.

Where is the leeway for any debt reduction?, Or what happens on
any weaker than expected revenue forecasts?.

Net debt now represents the best part of the entire VOD market cap.