Member Info for Andyagogo

Stage, PHGP is surely the way to go with gold?

The SP did hit my guesstimate of under 60 pence by the end of August,
with the recent intra-day dip below that level.

Where we go from here, I could not even guess. So much no depends on Brexit talks,
and whether any agreement passes the HoC.

LTI - That comment entirely missed the point.

It does not matter what you think of them,
what matters is they will be used as an excuse to vote against the bill.
Labour will attempt to bring down the government.

That is why Lloyds is being hammered, while every second comment from you
is.. buy back those dips.

Well they bought back £1 billions worth, nearly every single share purchased
above the current price. Wake up and at least attempt to comprehend what's
happening politically, and how this impacts the SP.

The maths just don't work...

We will get a deal, pretty sure of that, but how does it pass the HoC vote.

Labour will say... Does not meet Kier Starmer's conditions, they will vote against.

The SNP will vote against.

The ultra hard core of Tory MP's will vote against.

That is why both the Lloyd SP and UK house builders are being killed in SP terms.

Their latest update on UK banks does not make pretty reading.

When posters reference buying Lloyds for the long term,
it might first be worth looking at a 10 year Lloy price chart,
or 15 years, even 20 years. Take your pick.

If you bought 6 years ago, then you've done well,
just not as well as if you'd subsequently sold in 2015.

I mentioned back in June a TA view ( on another financial site)
which said .. Lloyds SP had unfinished business below 60 pence.
So that has now come to pass. I must try to dig the article out
to see if there was a longer term view given. The same person
also called VOD on the money.

I trade shares for a living and live in Weybridge Surrey,
so I guess that puts me firmly in the spiv capitalist camp!.

What I am very aware of though, is if people have little stake in society
(Or that is their perception) they tend to look for alternatives.

That is why home ownship is absolutely key to the long term success
of the Tory party.

Chancer, the olds ones are the best ;

And yes it's a valid observation.

There are other socio-economic factors driving this - lower house ownship,
large swathes of the electorate starting life with 40k in student debt.

This is part of the wider demographic shift that gives a very different electorate
as each year passes.

Wand, the demographic tide is why I think we will be back in.
Unless younger generations suddenly become significantly more Eurosceptic.

Now that may happen, none of us know the future,
however opinion already looks to be shifting away from Brexit.

That being said, I very much hope we thrive outside the EU.

It concerns me greatly when friends of mine who work in the local NHS Trust
tell me staff shortages particularly in A&E are putting life's at risks,
that some EU nationals who worked their for years have left the UK,
and we don't have the indigenous skilled workforce to replace them.

It looks a complete and utter mess to me, hopefully there will be
some resolution that is workable.

The UK is a country where a couple of days forecast bad weather sees large numbers
panic buy, where people called the police because their local KFC was closed earlier this year!.
We are no longer a nation where the majority will just suck it up, those days are gone.
If Brexit is a disaster there will be a very high political price paid by the Tory party,
rightly or wrongly(unfairly imv as it's a cross party issue) they own Brexit.

Thatcher thought the council tax would work as the electorate would take any
anger out on local authorities, not central government. With Brexit it will be the same-
HMG will get the blame.

Little point getting emotional, it is what it is.

In terms of the comment..life still goes on,
yes of course it does, however the market attempts to
value an equity on the basis of future cash flow,
which drives dividends and shareholder returns.

The sun will still come up, it's future profitability the
market is focussed on.

No longer appear to be in the Equity Income top 10 holdings,
It does appear in his income Focus top 10, the smaller of the 2 funds.

The EU offer a deal which HMG accept, attempt to sell,
however it is not acceptable to sections of the Tory PLP
who refuse to vote in favour.

Now this is the tricky bit - while there is no parliamentary majority
in the HoC for no deal, Labour will attempt to bring down the government,
arguing the deal does not go far enough in certain areas etc...

And then what happens... A challenge to May ?
a new PM .. it gets very messy.

I think this is what the market is focused on.

And I really hope the above does not transprire.

Yes, nearing crunch time, so understandable caution is in focus.

My surprise is some of the value orientated funds are not taking positions.

If you are happy to go against trend, and can block out the noise,
there is a contra-sentiment case to be made for Lloyds.
With the important proviso that lower levels may well be available!.

Why has the Lloyds SP been hammered?.

Seriously, fair question, why.

If we are going to prosper and thrive outside the EU,
institutions should be queuing up to invest in Lloyds,
particularly with the great yield on offer.

Instead, the opposite appears to be happening..

And as I live in the UK and will face the consequences,
I take no pleasure in saying this.

We were sold a lie- tariff free access to the EU.

Now the cold hard reality becomes clearer.

Can you imagine the public mood when job losses kick in,
those highly skilled manufacturing jobs which support a wider
supply line.

Public mood is shifting significantly more quickly against Brexit
than I anticipated. And we have not felt the consequences yet!.

Target achieved.

SP hovering over 60 pence a share.

The issues in fairness run far deeper than an EU exit,
that's just the cherry on top of the bear cake.

Consumers spending more than they earn, this at a time of record employment.

What happens when the next downturn hits, in a word - UGLY.

While the minutiae of a tiny buy back is discussed incessantly here,
in the real world longer term UK prospects are dimming.

As I've previously posted (with examples) the Lloyds SP tends to peak well
ahead of weakening macro.

Regardless of Brexit we are late in this cycle and the next recession will soon
loom large.

When people look back, then will clearly see that Lloyds gave an early warning sign,
the canary in the coalmine. All imv only, as always.

So my guesstimate share price is getting nearer,
might do it on the XD.

Call made back in June, from memory

This is with the wider UKX just off record levels.

Economic outlook.

Lloyds share price provided a nice early warning imv.

A bit like a canary in the coalmine.