Member Info for Andyagogo

There are more danger signs on markets atm than a Final Destination movie,
might be an idea to keep some cash on the sidelines - just IMV.

* appear

Dave, markets are now looking out to 2019 and beyond imv,
they aappear to be ignoring the better 2018 FY upgrades.

The sting is in the tail.

RYA share price is levitating, their large buy backs ?.

Without getting in to the politics of Trump, take a look at where oil
was trading prior to his ban on Iranian oil, and where it is today.

Trump has provided a huge fiscal boost to a US economy already
hitting capacity constraints - the shortage of HGV drivers - just one example.
US national debt is now rising at its most rapid rate since the financial crisis,
this is With GDP growth of near 3%.
Ultimately, there will be a large price to be paid.

If you knew how many I've bought, you may not say brave,
more like .. why bother!. But thanks ).

I'm very cautious on wider markets atm, sold some ISF today,
following on from some RDSB yesterday.

I should have perhaps bought a few more on the sub £13 dip,
hopefully another opportunity.

Brexit is not a longer term consideration, re investment, it's manily sentiment,
with some possible short term disruption.

AL75 is looking at this from a TA perspective,
so Brexit is a valid consideration in that context.

Unless Amazon were to make a move in to passenger airlines
(They've just bought a US housebuilder in their latest diversification)
the longer term future for RYA looks incredibly strong to me.

I'm aware of the cyclical nature of the industry, the background of Brexit
(Not a longer term consideration) and Labour relations etc.

Am I missing something significant here on a longer term bullish view on RYA.

Sage, would be particularly interested to hear your view on this (if possible) thanks.

A number of factors to consider, even putting Brexit aside.

Oil prices, are they nearing a peak here, or do they continue on up.

Wider stock market levels, correction etc, or some parabolic bull market top
move higher.

Potential further sector bankruptcies (major longer term positive).

Then, there is Brexit.

Did EZJ get to 800?, I thought it briefly dipped below 900, to around 880?.

Next Plc is a good example of major value creation in
longer term buy backs.

Next have reduced their share count by very approx 50%, over 15 years,
both significantly boosting EPS and saving on their dividend bill, very astute.
Then Simon is sharper than an unused scalpel.

We look near a peak in oil here. Sold a few of my RDSB this morning,
hoping I can buy back lower down.

Looking at RYA/EZJ financial ratios recently,
the difference in net margin between the two is striking.
RYA enjoys far higher margins. I'm guess/estimating load factor
Is one part of this.

Arguably this shows RYA's business quality and efficiency
of operation (and that's my own view) - it may also indicate
ample scope for EZJ to drive some margin improvements.
Can RYA net margins improve much from current levels?,
would doubt that over the next 2/3 years.

..."while we still hope for a comprehensive EU-UK deal, an assumption that 'it will be all right on the night' is far too risky to accept,"

Ironically Denis Norden died last week.

A damming verdict.

We have a bunch of ameatuers
running the country (UK)- most of whom have 0 experience
of the private sector. And this a Tory government.
The blessed Margaret will be turning in her grave.

The paucity of political talent access the UK political spectrum
is remarkable, and not in a good way.

There was some speculative talk Amazon may target the passenger
airline sector next, now that Prime Air operates in freight.

Insurance may be their next major area of interest imv.

Will post here again when I've made my first RYA purchase.

* flotation ( would really appreciate an Edit function).

One of the two sectors he will not invest in.

Buffett has made a similar comment in the past,
however as Berkshire recently increased its holding in Southwest (Love)
he may have changed his view - it could be Todd or Ted's growing influence.

Tony sent Michael to Southwest to study their business methods.

I remember the GPA foliation being pulled at the last minute,
Ryanair, which Michael had advised Tony to close (as heavily loss making at the time)
remade his fortune.

So, RYA has been buffeted by strikes, labour unrest, significant cancellations,
looming and growing Brexit uncertainty ... Now the oil price hits multi year highs.

This is music to my ears, nothing worse than buying a stock
with bullish unanimity as a background.

Wider equity markets are perhaps due some turbalance though,
and macro is supportive (9 years in to an economic expansion).
RYA arguably has some countercyclicality with its price positioning.