Member Info for Andyagogo

I don't believe in ... I told you so,
however as I mentioned several times over the summer,
the level of complacency on display here was striking.

Particularly given Brexit talks and growing macro headwinds.
Plus being late in this bull market.

We all know how Lloyds performed over the last 3 bear markets?,
posters surely are aware of that... although Past performance no guarantee to the
future etc.

I thought perhaps mid to low 50's as previously mentioned,
Think to get in to the 40's may take a lower UKX.

FT again mentioning sector overcapacity,
and a potential ..40% fall in EZJ 2019 earnings.
(That may be just one analyst, rather than a consensus estimate)

A 40% decline looks steep.

In terms of people agreeing/disagreeing with particular views,
personally I get a little nervous when too many people agree with me.

If I'm long a particular stock, bullish unanimity is the last thing I want
to see, usually a sign to head for the hills.

My better half holds very different political views to me,
Life becomes a rather boring echo chamber if everyone agrees.

making take-off an optional extra.

Some valid points in the article, but disagree with the assessment that RYA
is making ... a painful transition to a higher cost airline.

Unless higher cost in this context is meant relatively!.

Collapses.

Another 2-5% off RYA today would not surprise me,
with oil powering on up after the UK close.

On wider markets watch the US 10 year, nudging 3.10% atm.
If the yield brakes north of 3.20%, my best guess is wider markets
begin to take fright.

My posts are still on LSE from the commodity meltdown,
where I aggressively bought RIO and RDSB.

I was told RIO ..would be bankrupt within a year, that Shell had
made a catastrophic mistake acquiring BG, and were effectively bankrupt.

My reply to both was .. you are being handed a
Generational opportunity, the like of which some will never see again.

People still needed oil and gas and iron ore, just as increasing numbers
will continue to fly, and they have to fly with someone.
Now they don't all need to fly RYA, but I see no reason why RYA will
not be more profitable with 5 years, may be significantly more.

By no means am I saying RYA at these levels represents a RDSB moment,
we are not yet near fear and loathing.

What happened to those posters who postulated doom?
they stopped posting, or changed their usernames, funny that, eh.

Qz, some of us hope and pray for a market correction!.

No such luck atm, but my hope is strong.

Very good post.

I am ruling out a hard Brexit, as either the HoC would 'come together' in,
effectively driving negotiations, or there would be another GE, referendum.

I never thought I would see a once great nation reduced to this,
it's beyond belief to be quite frank.

Particularly as the EU are moving in the direction we want, re migration,
we could have driven the change.

11.66, and last of the day for me.

11.7832

Could not get a confirmed price, so went with .. market best.

Doug, some of us would like lower!.

To paraphrase WB - the stock market is the only place
people cheer when prices go up! ,))

You still holding Crest?, Value trap imv, as I mentioned a couple of times on ii.

TD is now interactive investor, just to clarify. I'm so used to referring to them
by their previous name.

I was asked to confirm EU national status when buying this AM.

12.0041 on the offer for me.

I'm not sure if they meant post Brexit?.

* perhaps I should retitle that- the Very long term bull case ))

The big danger of Brexit is it lets Corbyn
in to No 10.

The Tory party will largely take the political blame
(Unfairly as it was a cross party issue) if there is
an economic hit.

Negotiations have paralysied the government in to inaction
in other vital areas, with the huge amount of time and energy
this is taking.

What many people do not realise is just how few votes separate
the government from the opposition.

Across the 30 most marginal constituencies, approx 25,000 votes difference.
That's all it is. Momentum drew up plans of their target seats within 2 days of
the last GE, and were at work in these constituencies just weeks later.
It's very concerning, as is the complacency of this threat.

Airline Passenger traffic projected to grow strongly over the next decade.

RYA's growing scale of operations provides a significant cost advantage.

The buy backs help create longer term value by an aggressive reduction in
the share count.

Now the potential negatives..

Cyclical element to the business.

Commodity costs can impact profitability.

Labour unrest, regulation, compensation etc.

Brexit (not a longer term consideration, hopefully).

My very rudimentary take. I've also not mentioned wider stock markets levels,
corrections, bear markets etc, as these will happen and impact nearly all listed stocks.

Qz, I want to add a lot more as it happens.
However these would be buy and keep longer term.
My hope is to build a decent sized position over the
Next 2/3 years.
Very little at current market levels appeals to me,
got rid of my SLI last month, some RDSB and ISF this week.
Might sell my BRCI next week.
When the correction in US markets comes, it's going to be quick and brutal imv,
and will take UK markets with it.

EZJ continues on down, RYA, which I want to add, continues to hover.