Member Info for Andrew4444

correction 0.3% = 3% (buy-out offer)

With the cut-off % being 0.2% at $7500 and 0.15% at $10,000, POC is now right in the middle of those two points ($8750 POC)

So I wonder if a new cut off point of 0.175% will be used in future calcs?? (assuming POC stays at this level)

That should increase the current resource of 0.31M (0.3% cut-off) by 70% to 0.53M. Obviously before any further increase is added in due to recent drilling.

It looks highly likely imo, we will get to, at least, 1Mt of contained copper. Even if AA arnt interested other majors will be. Number crunch 1Mt contained copper at $8750 x 0.3% = 26p (without manica assets)

Of course if we get to 1.5mt and POC goes to $10K as expected then..............

Many LTHs in GGP would have felt jubilant selling out after the stock had 10 bagged.

If they had looked at the sp a year or so later they would have cried !

>>>>> is currently mining a porphyry with a proven and probable resource of 1480mt at 0.29% copper and 0.45 g/t gold. So anything around those numbers would be fine>>>>>>>

Iceman stated last week that 0.13g/t Au is equivalent to 0.1% Cu. So I believe 0.29% Cu and 0.45g/t, by my calcs, would work out at 0.35% Cu Eq (from Au) + 0.29% Cu = 0.64% Cu Eq.

I would be very happy with anything above 0.4% Cu Eq

and I'm sure they could make as much money NOW at say 1.5mt

The 2mt was agreed at a lower POC. AA just want to make money and I'm sure they could make as much money at say 1.5mt
as they could at 2mt when the POC was lower.

AA do not need to wait for 2mt before they make an offer.

Interesting presentation attached below re another porphyry in Australia. On page 7 it gives the mark-up in contained copper against lower cut-off points. We know that racecourse resource increased by circa 50% if we go from 0.3% to 0.2% cut-off (see table in link below). But this other presentation gives the increase when the cut-off is reduced further to 0.15%.

If POC keeps going up to near $10K then this may well be the new economic cut-off.

The presentation shows an increase of 93% from 0.3% to 0.15%. So assuming this is typical of most porphyry’s then our resource would increase from 0.312Mt contained Cu (at 0.3% cut-off) to 0.6M if we used 0.15% cut-off.

Obviously this is subject to POC increasing to circa $10K but many think that is likely over the next 1 to 2 years.

In addition, Mining Journo John Cornford said we have probably increased the resource by 56% after first drill results, so if we factor that in as well we could be on circa 0.9Mt cont cu after first drill – again assuming POC keeps rising.

Even at 0.2% cut-off, we should be at circa 0.72Mt (Original 0.31mt +48% due to lower 0.2% cut-off + 56% due to first drill results according to Cornford)

I’m sure drill hole 2 will have further increased the resource but obviously no idea yet by how much.

Table link
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IhTL-bv65wcJ:https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload%3Fid%3DtuE7JrfFgm%252FOGe3kZXCYEW%252F2TEVf4Ai%252Fzw311o9YkqsjTevSSYocXApvbUamxg5J3z8ubI5McZuzod3LAIw3yeEjZA%253D%253D+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk?=uk

Page 7 mineral resource and cut-offs at 0.3% to 0.15%
https://caravelminerals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020-11-AGM.pdf

Jakeman

In answer to your question....because that commodity price at the time is so low that it is not economic to mine. They then focus on the other commodities that are at an economic price . They keep a claim on the less economic commodity licence so they can go back when that commodity price is economic.

I bit like how the price of copper has massively increased over the last few years and why AA retained the buy-back clause when they sold their uneconomic licence.

CE

I believe the e6 part is short hand for 1m or in Gixxer's this case six zeros (e6) after the number.

ie 12e6 = 12,000,000

........all sorts of unexpected outcomes happen all the time....

Too right! Esp in this share :)

A bit of scepticism has often served xtract shareholders well in the past.

If Xtract had a motto, it should be....

Spes optima, para pessimus

I wouldn't like to be out of this over the next 18 months.......

Further to my post below, if we are just a little bit more optimistic and assume:

2.2mt (just over the AA buy-out) May not be far off that??
$8200 POC (its $8130 now and as direction of travel is up, $8200 not unreasonable in next few months)
4% buy-out. (In the cornford article he used 3% but called this conservative due to the jurisdiction and infrastructure)

I don't think any of those assumptions are ridiculous but maybe slightly on the optimistic side. But possible.

At 735M shares and 0.74 conversion rate the sp would be circa 73p.. from Racecourse alone.

We'll see.

CB has said in other interviews that majors are only interested if the resource is a min of 1mt contained copper.

Even if it 'only' 1mt that would see valuation of circa 24p for racecourse alone: assuming $8K POC 3% price 735M shares.

IMHO it looks highly likely it will be at least 1mt. As I've said before, we were already at 0.45Mt before drilling if we use 0.2% cut-off rather than 0.3% cut-off that was used to determine the 0.31Mt.

We just need to double the resource value with new drilling and we should be on for a min of 20p (excluding all other assets)

Of course AIMHO

No problem news

As long as that stock broker isnt HL as I also have an account with them for US / Can stocks.

I often cant get a quote with them when I can with x-o.

News

Change your broker !

I can buy 0.5M at 5.87p

Less at 5.8p

No problem buying

Re Eureka FCF a month

In this October interview CB discusses income from various projects.

From 51min 30 secs he talks about Eureka and says ....

'Could add another 300K' (Talking a month and in $)

So this supports my and James' believe that Eureka FCF should be circa $250K to $300K a month.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxxNbFw9Fbk

heading=headline

James

That makes sense.

I suspect CB is just giving the heading revenue figure out re Eureka and not stating the deductions (as stated by you) that need to be made against total revenue before we get our cut.

Thanks

James

Looking at my notes from the TW interview in July 20, CB said that we should be getting $250K to $300K a month FCF from Eureka for 5 to 6 years from Mid 2021 . He has stated this monthly figure a few times in interviews.

I couldn't remember how our cut is calculated from the headline income figure, but $250K to $300K a month FCF has been mentioned before.

Ntm

wetherspoons coach party could be here anytime now.

After all, it is happy hour :)