Member Info for Andrew4444

Thebest

I've mentioned this before.

POC at time was circa $6600 now $9000 so the 2mt then would be equivalent to circa 1.5mt now for same profit.

So that's why I said before I think AA may move early. They dont need to wait until we hit 2mt.

Lukey

In this article, respected mining journo John Cornford estimates 40p for the 2mt buy-out. But that was for 80%.

After listening to that interview, It now looks almost certain it will be for 100% so that equates to 50p. That's using cornford's same assumptions. (and excluding African assets)

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/johns-mining-journal-where-next-for-xtract-resources/

CB seems to confirm that any bid will be for 100% buy-out. I'm sure he wont want to keep 20% so he will not take up 20% option. I'm sure it was prospect ore who added that option anyway.

O and W

If you look at my posting history I’ve been one of the most sceptical re CB’s timings on manica projects and very critical of his forward guidance. In fact I’ve had a few spats with a few on here due to my criticism and cynical view on CB’s forward guidance.

And I still don’t believe CB on his forward guidance on any of the African projects nor his predicted future income.

But there is a big difference between CB being overly optimistic re income and timescales and believing nothing will happen.

The main additional income will be from Fair Bride. CB’s latest guidance is end of Q2 for construction and he has previously mentioned up to £500k a month income FCF from FB.

I don’t think we have a hope in hell of that timescale being met and yet again, I think it will slip. His £500K income a month is no doubt optimistic.

But where I think there is now compelling evidence to believe the mine will be built this year and income will be generated, is from the recent royalty agreement with empress royalty. In the vid below they are talking of construction in Q3 and income by October / November. They would have done substantial DD on MMP (the FB contractors). The info would come directly or indirectly from MMP – not a CEO trying to keep shareholders happy. Legal contracts would have been signed. So I think their timescales would be much more credible and robust then CB’s.

The other income sources, to make up to £500K a month, will be from Alluvial Mk2 income and Guy Fawkes (and possible Eureka). These are either in production or very near (CB may even say imminent) so I’ve added on another 6 months and reduced his income predictions by half.

CB still has 9 months to deliver against my timelines and income expectations. I think he will. But I’m sure he wont deliver against his current forward guidance.

Starts at 30 secs in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_P9GrHwIBA

Iceberg

OK Thanks

I agree that the ASX listing does seem a very good idea for the reasons you stated.

Re additional funding: I suspect many new investors, quite understandably, were drawn here solely due to Bushranger. Many probably have no interest in Manica, Kalengwa , Eureka or alluvials. They may not fully understand what they could bring to Xtract. Not a criticism just an observation.

I suspect many new here maybe pleasantly surprised by the substantial increase in income these projects will bring to Xtract by the end of the year.

We'll see.

Iceberg

Just so I've not misunderstood you, when you said you still think we will need more funds next half year, is that because you don't think we will have income of £500K to £700K a month by then, or is it because you think we will need more than £500K to £700K a month income to cover the costs of a more extensive drilling programme and exploration at Bushranger.

Thanks

FaceValue

This is my take - others may have different views

Drilling cost is about £150 a mtr.

Drilling about 2000 mtrs a month = £300K a month

Company losing about £75K a month from (G and A)

A guess, but maybe £100K drilling / expense for Africa drilling / work.

Total £475K a month burn rate (worst case I think)

£5M funding January (assuming CIB was zero) means 10 Months left from January = November

However, different projects in Africa will start producing income from May latest and build up income to £500K to £700K by October / November latest (that’s my timescale, but company’s latest guidance says a bit earlier).

Assuming CB does not try and accelerate the drill programme, I don’t see any reason for a raise or further dilution.

Substantial increase in income be the end of the year should ensure continuation of drill programme and all other explorations costs are covered by income.

Seen a few posts today from new posters questioning the viability of the 0.33% grade.

For those that think copper needs to be 1% min to be economic, or that our 0.33% cu grades are not good, have a look at the attached on page 6 listing the top 30 copper deposits in Australia.

Out of the 30 listed, only 6 have grades above 1% Cu. Moreover, there are 5 Porphorys listed in the 30 (highlighted in pink).

Only 1 Porphyry has higher grades than Racecourse (at 0.55%). The others either have same grades or a lot less. Cadia East is the biggest Porphory in terms of contained copper and its Cu grades are 0.25% Cu.

https://caravelminerals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020-11-AGM.pdf

Father Ted doesn't arf

.....go on, go on, go on , go on, go on, go on !

I can buy £10K at 7.4p

I can buy in x-o but ask just jumped from 7 to 7.4p???

Cyber

Thanks for the calcs.

What's Interesting is that if you re calc using extremely pessimistic assumptions there is still substantial upside. So there is plenty of 'insurance' against disappointment.

Assuming:

Side average is 700M not 760M (ie average of your three sides excluding the largest fourth side 940M)
POC $8500 (as you used)
60% of cuboid for shape (egg shape not capsule) (so not 80%)
0.2% cu (not 0.3%)
2% buy-out (not 3%)
Fully diluted 835Million shares

That equates to circa 16p just for racecourse only . So may be 20p including Africa projects??

And I'm sure those assumptions are not realistic, but extremely pessimistic.

And yet still upside against current sp

Best not do the calcs using extremely optimistic assumptions as if 1DAYMAYBE saw the result I'm worried what he'd be doing with his strap on :)

No one would be safe ! :)

Hi Ella

In both vids they stated that the satellite deposits should extend the mine life, so I'm sure it will be longer. I doubt MMP would be paying millions for just a 3 year mine life. That maybe the short term agreement with MMP/empress?

What's v good, is that we know for certain FB will be built and that its almost certain we will be getting substantial additional income this year.

Further to James' vid a few days ago re empress royalty, this clip gives a little more details re FB.

States that income is expected Oct / Nov (construction in Q3). If that's when empress get their income then I assume that's a realistic timescale for when Xtract starts getting income from FB.

As legal contracts between all parties would have been agreed, and DD done before hand, I'm sure these timescales for construction / income are going to be a little more robust then CB's .

His last update was 'end of Q2' timescale for FB construction. I'm sure that must have slipped.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_P9GrHwIBA

30 secs in. About 2 min of interesting info.

LW

At current POG/POC we need 0.16g/t Gold to move from 0.2% Cu to 0.3% CuEq and 0.09g/t Gold to move from 0.25% Cu to 0.3 % Cu

Agreed Gixxer

Maybe this could be a ‘test case’ to see if CB has ‘turned over a new leaf’ re predicted timescales.

I hope so, as I think it will restore trust and confidence in future forward guidance.

Whatever the possible sensible and pragmatic reasons for delaying the assay results, it was CB who chose to use the word ‘imminent’. And for me that should mean this week.

Great find James.

I've always thought CBs 'end of Q2' for production was his usual best case scenario, so Q3 seems much more realistic.

It looks, almost certain, that FB, GF, Eureka and two alluvial contracts will be generating combined substantial FCF by end of the year.. latest.

Even adding on the' CB factor' , that timescale looks highly probable.

Gixxer

On reflection I think you are correct.

As James says, looks too big for alluvial so most likely its the plant to be used for free milling gold. They have said that there is already a plant very near and in operation ready to process the GF ore.

I assume that's what it is.

Hi James

My initial thought was the pictures were of FB plant but then I assumed that was too good to be true (due to advancement). I also thought that if that was FB plant, then why werent those pictures on the website ? Or at least update by CB saying how well things are progressing?

It would be great for shareholders to know how advance the construction of the FB site was. Assuming that is what the pictures are of??

As you say, hopefully some news soon. Maybe its all part of CBs 'news bomb' !

Ella

Thanks for that.

IF the info on the empress royalty site is correct, then what are the photos of?

That cant be photos of FB under construction can it?? !!! I assume its alluvial works for second contract?

https://empressroyalty.com/streams-royalties/development-stage-royalties/manica/photo-gallery/

Be interesting to know others views re photos.