Member Info for Andrew4444

Icebergs post are still there.

His user name is

theiceberg

A drill bit has been seen coming out of the ground in Colchester.

This must be ours, so drilling has stopped.

I'm expecting an RNS soon :)

I would be amazed if they were not working over Easter Weekend.

Apart from a few days over the xmas period, I would think they would be working all the year round.

Most contractors do now in this world.

Steve

Yes I remember CB stating the 1000m x 1000m x 1000m figure in an interview a couple of months ago.

I know they werent your figures and you were just repeating what CB had said. However, against known drill results at the time, those figures that CB stated were not realistic. As James, and others, said - why is CB stating we have a 1000mtr cube when the drill results released don’t support that? And we certainly didnt have 1000mtrs cube of mineralisation.

As a LTH of many years, I would caution anyone in believing, on face value, everything CB says. His 1000mtr cube comment is a good example.

I accept that as we get more drill results we may start to move towards that figure. Hopefully starting from next week ;)

Steve

8.9Mt of Cu Eq would equate to an sp of over £2. I think that maybe stretching it a bit !

Some of the drill lengths started way outside the resource so we need to take off 300 mts for some of those dimensions. I think 1000 x 700 x 700 would be more realistic. In addition there will be void areas inside the volume so if its a 'capsule shape' then we are looking at 70% to 80% recovery of total volume.

Unless we get amazing phase 2 drill results (we may do but that's unknown) then atm I'd be very pleased with 1bn tonnes x 80%. That would be circa 2.6Mt Cu Eq and about 65p SP.

I hope you're right with your 9Mt, but we will need more drill results before we can say we are anywhere near that imho.

....if they came in with an offer of £150m for the whole company on tuesday, how many of us would vote yes to that? quite a few....

This is why I think AA may move early. They must know CB wont show his hand too soon and will try and built up this and maybe footrot. It maybe in AA interest to try and pay £150m now then a lot more later.

If so, I hope shareholders reject the offer but I suspect many wont.

O and W

Thanks for the info.

I stand corrected.

Hello CE

I'm not so sure that a TR1 would only be released after the buy order completed. Its against threshold, so I would think they would have to issue TR1 after 3% crossed??

If you are correct, then the first TR1 released would confirm AA had gone from 0% holding to circa 40%. Even by Aim's standards, that would be pushing it!

That said, I think MMs even trying to fill even part of that order would see the SP spike . I would be surprised if AA could buy 20% of the co under 10p as the sp would quickly be above 10p (imho).

I suspect buy-outs are done in the way they are ( and not by stealth share accumulation) to ensure the sp doesnt run up and spike?

Roci

I suppose they could, but I would assume the sp would rocket quickly. Then after the TR1 would go ballistic??

Thats my guess, but others may have a better understanding on the implications.

...so in answer to your question, I dont believe either side can say no to the deal. Assuming the 2 mt is reached. It may be more fluid and up to negotiation prior to the 2mt being reached (if AA move early)

My understanding is that its not AA's valuation (after 2mt triggered), its an independent valuation using industry methodology.

I believe there is no negotiation from either side. If there was negotiation option, then no point in the independent valuation.

Happy to be corrected.

Good interview

A more thoughtful, matter of fact and less excitable interview than usual. He came over like a CEO, rather than a salesman trying to convince you to buy his latest product.

Some of the time scales he stated were months away. Previously, he would imply the timescales are very soon – not months away.

It’s almost as if he now thinks the fundamentals of the company are now so good that he doesnt need to ramp the hell out of everything and give unrealistic and overly optimistic guidance!

Very welcome. Long may it continue.

O and W

I would agree with that comment if you had said alluvials rather than manica. The MC before Bushranger was circa £10M so that was the value to xtract prior to Bushranger. That's not virtually zero.

FB wont get built when CB has implied, but it will get built this year and I'm sure the total manica income, from all the projects, will be circa £500M a month by end of the year.

The contractors produced the lowest ever amount of Gold from alluvial production (in a full quarter).

Q1 alluvial results are usually the worst quarter, so they may be even worse as we have had a lot of very heavy rains this Quarter.

Not surprised CB released these figures after hours.

I also notice the side comment that ‘ limited earthworks at Fairbride were progressed’. The latest guidance was FB construction by end of Q2. I wonder how long CB will wait before he informs shareholders that the circa June timeline has slipped?

On Monday the sp movement, or otherwise, will show how much value current shareholders place on Bushranger. I suspect there wont be much of a SP fall, if any, as for most it’s all about Bushranger.

We’ll see.

Rodders

Thanks for the link.

Yes a good summary of copper demand, but moreover I thought the speaker could have been describing Xtract. His future plan seems to be same as CBs intention and shows the potential here IF all goes to plan here.

Worth a watch IMHO

Rec

......Other reasons as to why investors have chosen to invest?....

Reason 4.

You know the name of the company and can spell is correctly :-)

Cyber

I can understand why you may not now want to listen to sharetalk interviews, but I think that would be a mistake. There is a lot of info in them imho, but just ignore, or be very sceptical with any reference to timescales or income figures.

That said, for Hole 6 restart, CB gave forward guidance of ‘by weekend’ And even said hopefully by Thursday or Friday.

Amazingly his timescale was early! That must be a first.

Maybe he has finally got the message and he will continue to under promise and over deliver on other forward guidance!??

Hello Dibs and CE

I’m relaxed about the assay grades and that’s why I posted the link a few days ago showing that 0.3% is absolutely fine and that the 1% requirement was nonsense.

But without additional explanation and knowledge that some have here, the novice investor may have taken CB’s comment - that 0.4% = a win - on face value and, wrongly, assumed that 0.3% was not a win.

CB didnt over promise re assay results for H1. But what he did do was to say that

'0.4% or more is a win'

And also referenced the previous 0.4 0.5 and 0.6 results from AA's drilling.

Some may have thought that if 0.4% is a win, then less than 0.4% is not a win? That view now appears to be wrong but Cb's previous comments it may not have helped the sp after assay results were released.

Hole 1 complete 22 Jan

Hole 2 complete 5 Feb

= 14 days gap

So likely H2 assay results should be released about 14 days after H1 assay were announced = Friday 2 April

That’s Easter weekend, so they may be released on Thursday 1 April or Tuesday 6 April.

That’s my best guess.