Member Info for Andrew4444

12m shares and 20m share options....

options:
3,333,333 at 1p
3,333,333 at 1.25p
3,333,333 at 2p
10,000,000 at 10p

1DAY

With that comment and your track record here, you've just guaranteed the sp hitting 4.5P :)

I don't think the reason for CB not doing a zak interview was because of poor assay results. Those are not 'interviews' with Zak but an opportunity for CB to advertise and promote the company. If CB didnt want zak to mention assay results or indeed any other company aspect, then that would be agreed prior to the promotional chat .. sorry I mean 'interview'

If grades are mediocre then I think CB's credibility would be shot.

In the many interviews he has given hes made comments like

..".I'm not worried about the grades". and "We know the grades in the area are between 0.20% and 0.45%"

After all his comments, If they are bad then trust will be gone . If he then tries to repair the situation and say we'll make it all up on volume, then I cant see why anyone would believe anything he says again.

For the reasons I've already given before, I dont expect grades to be bad and I'm confident they will be at least 0.2%

Looking at these many articles re future copper price, the estimates seem to be all over the place.

Another article form mining.com

https://www.mining.com/copper-price-flies-high-but-further-out-forecasts-are-grim/

Goldman Sachs sees prices averaging $10,620 a tonne in Q4. Goldman, the number one proponent of the existence of a supercycle in commodities, sees more gain in 2022, predicting prices to reach $12,250 by the end of next year.

However....

The only other participant expecting the copper price to reach five digits is Singapore’s United Overseas Bank. Only ABN Amro, Citi and ANZ see copper above $9,000 in Q4, but apart from ABN, also see a retreat back below that level a year later.

The consensus forecast for the Q4 average is $8,340, sliding to $8,130 in Q4 2022.

Gixxer

I take your point re CB's wealth but why would he want to "throw away" £120K? That's what he would be doing if the assay results are poor. I can't see how anyone would believe anything else he ever says again if they are poor or that somehow assay results for phase 2 will be significantly better than phase 1. Its the same area.

The sp would crash and go back below 3p imho as the bushranger project would be over.

In addition, CB has never bought that much before here so why do it now? I think he has a good idea of what we have.

I suppose my view boils down to my belief that CB is not a complete idiot who would say what he has said in interviews and done what he has done, only for it to be all a big con and therefore he would have overseen and instigated the destruction of the sp and his reputation.

We should know in 2 weeks if I'm being astute holding that view or very naïve :)

Gixxer

As you know ive been sceptical on a lot of CB’s forward guidance over the years so understand your view. However, CB has bought £120K of additional shares recently which does give me a lot of confidence that he isn’t just guessing that assay results will be fine. He's never done that before (with his own money)

In addition, if the assay results were poor, then it would be game over here. As assay results are fundamental to the project working there would be no spinning by CB to turn that around. Its one thing for CB to BS about minor events such as time scales and income levels, but assays are the 'engine in the car' so if he's wrong then his credibility and the sp would be in tatters esp after all his bullish comments in interviews over last 3 months.

Unless CB wants to trash his reputation and destroy the sp, the assay results will be at least decent.

Of course AIMHO

I think the delay is simply because CB saw the SP reaction (30% fall over next few days) to H1 assay results, which were decent, so he has decided change his approach and release all phase 1 assay results together, probably with supplementary notes to ensure there can be no misunderstanding of the “big picture” this time.

If this theory is correct, I’m not expecting the assay results until end of the month – ie 2 weeks time.

That may also give CB enough time to release the IP Survey results at the same time??

After all CBs comments in interviews, his recent big buys and expansion of drill campaigns, it would be unbelievable to think this all would have happened unless CB was damn sure of what he had.

Further to CB leaving the assay results in a tent, he couldn’t remember if he had left them in a teepee or a wigwam, so he went to the doctor to see if he had a memory problem.

His doctor said, I know what the problem is – your two tents.

(Sorry. I’ve reported my own post :))

Interview with Empress Royalty talking about Fairbride

" Should be in production by Q3 revenue hopefully Oct / Nov"

So Probably Sept for production start date.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_P9GrHwIBA
(From 45 sec in)

Looking at the mark-up, using 0.2% cut-off, current JORC increases to 0.45mt and using 0.15% current JORC increases to 0.5mt (using average data mark-up).

So not that much less using 0.2% cut-off

Hi James

I don't know if we will go down to 0.15% cut-off but that was the figure used against $10K for many companies.. Maybe more will use that 0.15% cut-off at current POC?

The comparison in cut off grades was from a few different data sets I have seen. I've used an average to work out increase in value against reduced cut-off.

12.5% = 0.125%

Current economic grade cut-off % are 0.15% at $10K POC and 0.20% at $7500 POC

They both have symmetry and work out at $15 (% cut-off x POC)

It looks reasonable to assume POC could get to $12K by end of the year?

If so the cut-off equivalent, using same methodology, for same final value, would reduce to 12.5% (12.5% x $12K POC = $15)

Looking at previous data values from other mining cut-offs, the contained copper increases by 50% when cut-off decreases from 0.3% to 0.2%, and by 70% when cut-off decreases from 0.3% to 0.15%(lowest current economic cut-off).

So as POC is now over $10K we can use lowest economic cut-off of 0.15%. At the current lowest economic cut-off of 0.15%, our current JORC of 0.3mt cont copper at 0.3% cut-off, should increase to circa 0.5mt .

IF POC keeps increasing to $12K I wonder if a new lower economic cut-off will be used below 0.15%? And if so, I wonder what that would do to our current JORC contained copper value?

Even if the assay results are disappointing, at this cut-off point we must have a very good chance of hitting 2mt. If we are at 0.5mt from current JORC (using 0.15%) then we only need to x4 value and from looking at the volume from current drill results, I think we should at least do that.

Of course AIMHO

Hello CE

I think that is the view of many on here. I posted recently that at this level of POC we must have an asset that is worth more than current MC (How much more is obviously the question).

Even if things don’t turn out as well as we all hope re Africa and Bushranger, the current MC is justified even with the very worst case scenario imho.

I wonder what the sp would be in the best case scenario?

We may find out in 12 months time!

Iceberg

Hopefully the start of the evidential test you want will be supplied before end of the year via Fairbride production/ income? Hopefully.

For what its worth, I've always thought the African assets, when producing full income stream, should be worth between £50M to £80 MC. So at 1billion shares (inc warrants and options) thats 5p to 8p sp increase.

Obviously bushranger will be the major asset.

podcast = blog

Iceberg

Thanks for your podcast and thoughts.

You seem to be coming around to my and some other LTHs way of thing re value of African assets.

By the end of the year you will be saying

" Bushranger adds some value but its all about Africa! :)

(that was a joke btw !)

Thanks again for your thoughts

The way POC is going, by the end of the year the economic grade cut-off may be down to 0.0001% :)

In all seriousness, whatever the final tonnage or contained copper value, surely at this POC, and rising, we have an asset that has economic value and someone will want to buy. Certainly at a buy price higher than current sp !

This is what was in the back of my mind re Eureka.

Not too sure if KPZ have taken up their funding option, so we may be on 75% or 50% share (50% If KPZ will continue to fund).

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/option-agreement-eureka-copper-gold-project-zambia-amhodt6e1ayqxty.html


"No later than 1 December 2019, the Company will be required to present a detailed budget to KPZ to continue to scoping study. Should KPZ wish to fund their 50% share of the scoping study costs then they will be required to confirm this by 1 February 2020 and each party will equally fund the Project. If KPZ do not wish to further fund the Project, they will be diluted to 25% in Newco with the Company's interest increasing from 50% to 75%"