Member Info for Andrew4444

roll = role!

"CB lost credibility with todays assay results "

NtM

That was my initial reaction when I saw the grades.

However, on reflection, CBs comment of “0.25% to 0.45%” would have been an overall grade against a JORC or after drill programme completed for the collective average. Obviously not all drill holes will be over 0.25%. It’s a bit like getting a grade C- for one assignment and assuming the final exam result will be a grade C- when you have 20 assignments to do.

If after all drilling is completed and we are at overall average of less than 0.25%, then I agree he would have lost credibility with his comments and we would be back to the usual place of CB over promising and under delivering.

If Hills and Read start taking more of a prominent communication roll, I think that specific criticism will disappear. We wont be as excited listening to their comms compared to CB’s but we wont be disappointed a few months later !

Ella

Not too sure I can offer any words of wisdom!

For what it’s worth I think:

1. Grades disappointing, but not terrible as they are still economic.
2. Good presentation, less rampish and more thoughtful than CB’s. Hills and Read seem very professional.
3. This is going to take some time to really deliver. Obviously too long for many who have sold today .
4. Manica and associated income streams will start to become more important to fend off any possible future placing after phase two drill campaign.
5. FB income stream by end of the year (hopefully by then) would be, on its own, getting close to supporting current sp.
6. Ella is much better at predictions than 1DAYMAYBE :)

Is that you 1DAYMAYBE borrowing Ella's computer?? :)

3Card

But £110K was CB's money.

Not an amazing amount for someone like him but why make that investment if he thought he was going to lose alot of it?

NtM

Because of the magnitude of Racecourse (re MC) and importance of the grades, I do see it as black and white. IF grades are not economic or Racecourse is not commercial, then that would be catastrophic - because of CB's many previous comments.

Phase 2 is same area as phase 1 so if grades are not economic from phase 1 I dont see why they would be for phase 2. If CB said they will be, why would anyone trust or believe him?

I wasnt clear when I said game over. When I say game over I meant for Bushranger. You're right about manica. That would still be an asset but I suspect the market would then not future price anything in until it was delivered.

This is what CB has said and done over the last couple of months:

1. Quote “ We know we have the grades”

2. Quote “ I’m not worried about the grades”

3. Quote “ we know the grades in these porphyry’s in this area are between “0.25 and 0.45%”

4. Quote “ I and the team believe this is as good if not better then boda”

5. 2 x 1M buys at circa £110K total cost

6. 10M options at 10p

7. Second placing for £5M to ramp-up drilling with two rigs in operation.

8. Independent consulting firm to model various open pit development scenarios in the upper part of the porphyry system

Would CB really have said and done all that unless he was sure that the grades were economic and that there was commercial value at Racecourse?

I guess we’ll find out soon, but if he has mislead shareholders, then its game over for CB here imho. No one will believe a word he says ever again.

This would be 100 times worse than delivery dates slipping.

I just don’t believe he’s that stupid. Well, I hope not !

What we need here is 1DAYMAYBE to say that he thinks the sp will fall to 4p and all days this week will be Red.

If he did that, I would think the sp should be at 10p by the end of the week :)

(Just joking 1DAY........but it maybe worth a try :) )

Yesterday there was talk of a buy-out being 3 cents per lb. That seemed very low imo so I did some research.

I’ve found this interview (link below) and the CEO of this copper junior says that the buy-outs were between 3c and 10c (in the lb) during the last copper bull run. Only the juniors in the best jurisdiction, infrastructure, low extractions costs etc were getting the 10c in lb. I think it reasonable to believe that we tick all the boxes to get the higher amount.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvr_T_9560Y (From 19min 30ecs in)

As stated yesterday, the 3c / lb is equivalent to $66 a tonne = $132M=£93M=9.3p
(assuming 2mt and using 1Billion shares (shares in issue + warrants + options)

If we use the higher 10c / lb then that comes to circa 31p.

However, the CEO said that he expects the buy-outs to be at least the same as the last copper cull run and probably higher – so we may get more than 10c/ lb ??

It’s impossible to work out the historic % buy-out against the cent in the lb as it all depends what was the POC at the time. The bull run was over many years at, obviously, changing POC

At current POC 10c / lb would equate to 2.2% buy-out

Although I’m very confident we will get more than the 3c in the lb discussed yesterday and therefore the buy-out will be much more then 9p, I’m now not as optimistic that we will be getting 3% as mentioned by Cornford in his article.
I’ll now be using 2% in my calcs and hoping that we get a little bit more than that, but I would be I’d surprised if its more than 2.5%

Even at 2% buy-out, that’s 28p + circa 5p manica = 32p. Hopefully that will be the lowest figure the sp will reach after any buy-out.

Of course AIMHO

I think the dot at the end of the link is the problem??

When you cut and paste it into the browser you probably leave off the dot at the end so that why it works??

Difficult to say as the sp has increased alot since Bushranger so I guess the question is how much of the 9p (if that really is the extra true value) is priced in already. If nothing is priced in now then sp should still be where it was before drilling news??

I read an article 6 months ago saying that an african copper licence had been sold for 2% contained copper. I've tried to search for it to check details but cant find it now.

I would be amazed and very disappointed if we get less than 2% offer - esp in a copper bull run.

LW

I would be very surprised if the market only gave us an additional 4p to go from where we are now to confirming we have 2mt contained Copper!

More than just a party pooper if so :)

I agree with your calcs LW

So if it is 3cents in lb of contained copper and we get 2mt target = £92M

Using 1 billion shares ( in issue + warrants + options ) that's 9.2p

So if we get to 2m then sp nearly doubles from here?

We were 8p a few weeks ago.

I think we can dismiss the 3c in the lb . I'm sure its going to be more than that.

…”BUT, even if he's once again seen to be slow or very slow to give out what he believes to be 'bad' news, on a grander scheme of things, I'm not overly concerned….”

If the ‘bad news’ was re assay results from phase 1 drilling then I would be extremely concerned. CB has repeatedly been very bullish and optimistic in his many interviews. He’s stated “ I’m not worried about the grades” “we know we have the grades” “We know the grades in these phorphorys are between 0.2 and 0.45%.

Surely all trust would be gone if he grades were bad. As many LTHs know, CB has been overly optimistic many times before, but on less critical things such as delivery dates. That’s very frustrating - but not critical. The grades (economic) are critical .
If we find out that grades are bad and not as implied, then why would anyone think phase 2 would be better? Why would anyone believe anything he says again?

I think it would be game over for bushranger if that was the case.

Because I don’t think CB is an idiot wanting to destroy his reputation I am confident the grades will be at least economic. His buys and recent raise to continue drilling – actually ramp-up drilling - and bring in more people also confirms that all will be fine.

Of course IMHO

Steve

Wasnt there a phrase in the RNS that said "received and collated?? "

CB could says they have been received and not yet been collated?

He will find a way around the rules :)

I may be wrong, and hope I am, but I do think it unlikely that discussions would be held with a major unless there was an updated JORC after Phase 2 was completed. How else would the major know what we have or moreover what we will have?

There seems to be many who believe that the silence is down to a possible offer ie the best possible reason for the delay, but the alternative view is that CB doesn’t think the market will like H2 assays results so he wants to package them all together with supplementary notes so even the most ill-informed will know that they are at least economic grades. This may take until end of the month to do. He may have been spooked by the 30% drop over 3 days when decent H1 assay results of 0.3% were released.

This view isnt as good as the 'Sunlit uplands' view of the offer /in discussions view but I think its more realistic.

The other view that they are delayed due to high work load in the labs is also possible, but this is speculation and we don’t know this to be the case as this has not been confirmed by CB. Tbh I would think that something as benign as this reason would have been confirmed?

I agree that informing the market now that there has been a delay in assay results is too late to effect the sp, but that’s probably because the sp has fallen so much due to not knowing why they are late.

Yes, very good find re assay delays but if that is the reason for the delays then why cant CB do what Thompson resources have done and update and inform the shareholders?

No problem if things change, nothing can be guaranteed to go to plan, but if / when they do change then I think its reasonable to expect an update.

Looks like the crypto money is finding its way back "old faithful" Gold.

Would be good to see CB buying another 1m at these levels.. assuming he is allowed to???

LW

I think most of the plant probably is still in SA.

The ground work will take the most time and tailings damn. I dont think it will take more than 5 months to assemble the parts. The main parts have been manufactured and just require assembly.

CBs build time was 4-5 months, but he may have forgotten to include the prep work on site !

Empress said FB in production by late of Q3, income by Oct /Nov

CB last guidance was FB built by late Q2. I believe he said that late last year.

I wonder who's going to be correct?