Member Info for Andrew4444

Sg001

Well done on managing to get someone to answer the phone! That is some achievement.

See if you can get someone to reply to an email?? Now that would be impressive!

I've given up trying.

This has been updated on the website

Alex Terry has been listed for sometime and has increased his holding to 37.5M !! There is also a new name appeared - Peter Hall who holds 26M.... And I thought I had a lot ! Mere bagatelle compared to these guys!

I wonder if they post on here?? I assume they are individual private shareholders?

They must be confident of the future prospects.

https://xtractresources.com/shareholders/

Another factor worth considering, although CB has often been deliberately deceptive and overly optimistic, would two highly experienced and respected professionals such as Read and Hills get aboard the xtract bus if they thought to driver was going to drive them over a cliff?

Would Empress Royalty be telling its shareholders Fairbride should be income producing by end of the year if that was unlikely to happen?

As frustrating / worrying / annoying things are at the moment, I’m still holding on to the view that it is highly likely we will find, at the very least, 1mt cont copper. As CB has said before, this will be of interest to mid tiers or probably majors.

The 0.3Mt we have currently from JORC at 0.3% cut off should be circa 0.5Mt at 0.2% cut-off. So all we need to do is double the resource to circa 1mt. I think that has probably been done already even at low grades. IF that is done, then even at a very low 1.5% buy-out, we should be on for 10p, ex whatever the Africa assets are worth – 2p minimum worst case.

So I am confident that the sp, at some point over the next 12 months, will be over 10p.

Obviously I’m expecting a lot more than that, but 10p would seem to be the realistic worst case scenario.

Of course, AIMHO.

I feel the criticism is unfair that CB is getting re his poor forward guidance re Africa. He’s constantly kept shareholders informed, been consistent and even kept repeating the same guidance.

For instance, he said in 2018

“ we will have $1M income a month this time next year”.

He’s been consistent with this and even repeated it again in 2019, and even yet again in 2020.

I mean, how many times does CB have to keep repeating himself re forward guidance ! :)

Its going to be - this time next year !

Many years ago I would only invest in active managed funds as I assumed the fund managers would stock pick better than I could. I was making a decent profit but then read an article that said only half of fund managers beat the index. I assumed most would as its their job ! And then you have to factor in costs which reduced performance even further.

When I analysed my returns I realised that I would have made more money, in most cases, investing in that sector through an ETF. I came to the conclusion that sector analysis was the best way to make money. Everything goes in cycles so when a sector has been beaten up over the last 5 years there's a high chance of it going up. And obviously reverse is true.

A good fund manager in a bear market sector will not make you as much money as a very average fund manager in a bull market sector. I realised its all about the sector not the fund manager.

Just remember to get out before the sector turns !

Of course AIMHO. Others will have different views.

FTF

Nearly all the other deposits have had considerable drilling and exploration. 2mt of cont copper will see Xtract as the 8th biggest.

The point is, that we are 27th biggest BEFORE any extensive drill programme.

https://caravelminerals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020-11-AGM.pdf

The link above is from a presentation for an Australian mining company. On page 6 it lists the top 30 Copper deposits in Australia. It also highlights Porphorys and their Cont Cu tonnage and Bushranger is listed at number 27 – that’s only against current JORC. So we have the 27th biggest deposit in Australia before any revision of the current JORC.

Interestingly, they have listed our Cont Cu as 495,000 tonnes for Bushranger and not the 312,000 tonnes officially stated (77Mt x 0.44%) at 0.3% cut-off. I'm assuming we have no other cont Cu tonnes at Bushranger other than at Racecourse.

It would seem that the presentation is using a lower cut-off figure: I would assume 0.2% is being used (same as we are using now) as the cont cu amounts increases by circa 50% when cut-off grades are reduced from 0.3% to 0.2%. This would take our 0.312 Mt (in Jorc) to circa the 0.5Mt stated in the presentation.

On the next page down on LHS, they have a table of the Cont Cu tonnage using different cut-off points. Its interesting looking at how they increase with lower cut-off grades from 0.3% down to 0.15%.

Although some on here have previously questioned the viability or likelihood of a company using 0.15% cut-off point, that is the threshold this company is using for their tonnage. They may now think it’s reasonable to believe that the average POC, over the next few years, will be at least $10K so there could now be a paradigm shift in methodology for estimating cont cu tonnage due to the much higher POC?

So, maybe, we were at 0.5Mt Cu in the current JORC (using 0.2% cut-off) and that figure may be higher if we could or should, use 0.15% cut-off. Maybe that’s why John Cornford stated we had 690,000 tonnes copper equivalent in one of his articles?

See link below.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/johns-mining-journal-four-rocketing-mining-minnows-should-you-follow-them/

Eureka was circa £150K a month last year. I would hope £100K a month min but that time line keeps slipping.

Comprehensive African update long over due. Hopefully by end of June????

CB has stated a few times he wants the African income to fund Bushranger development.

I would hope and believe that we would be getting income from Fair Bride by the end of the year and that this income stream should ensure no more placings are required for further drilling. I do think phase 3 drill maybe required.

CB’s forward guidance for African projects has been woeful. His latest FB construction guidance in Q4 2020 was end of Q2 2021 – so supposedly in a month. That obviously wont happen by then. However, Empress Royalty, who are now stake holders in the MMP FB build, have stated construction will be complete by end of Q3 and income by Oct / Nov. I believe this guidance more credible than anything CB says so I’m reasonably confident of £300k to £400K FFC per month to Xtract before end of the year.

I think that income stream should be enough and timely to avoid future raises for more drill programmes. There is also a chance that we may get some income from Eureka before end of the year – but this may be less likely than FB and certainly less income.

The current JORC is 0.3M against 0.3% cut-off. Against many other examples the cont copper increases by circa 50% if we reduce the cut-off from 0.3% to 0.2%.

We are using 0.2% cut-off so against this lower cut-off the JORC would be circa 0.45mT.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WFUFdHX62Q

May be CB would reject the independent fair value assessment (or assessments if more than 1) if he could get a better valuation offer from another major? He may want to see if others would offer more than fair value? If he can’t get more, (go with AA and fair value) if he can, go with higher bidder or ask AA to match it?

Obviously he would need to speak to others first (and say can you beat this independent valuation) before rejecting the fair value assessment. I assume he does have a reasonable time period to respond to valuation.

This is all irrelevant if CB does not have the option of rejecting independent fair value assessment.

From listening to the interview today, it appears (I think) he may now have the option of rejecting the valuation because he said “And of course, we are not forced to accept that value.”

Anyway, talked this one to death and going round in circles :)

Have a good bank holiday weekend all.

Hi James

You may be right, but I would be surprised if CB just made a mistake on such an important and black and white aspect . I can understand how he may have made a mistake on a subtle and nuanced aspect, but this is such a binary issue – have to accept / don’t have to accept the offer .

If I am correct in taking CB’s comment at face value, then I think it is very significant as CB could potentially, instigated an auction with other majors. Newcrest could be interested as they are in the area.

I've read a few different explanations of why he said what he said - so there seems to be some confusion. I guess we will need clarification from CB on what he actually meant.

Ella

Well, I didnt interpret it like that.

If that was the case I think he would have said, validate or check valuation. It seemed, to me anyway, we could just reject it.

Maybe worth clarifying at the AGM (live or via Zoom)

Steve and O& W

OK thanks.

I was shocked by CBs comment tbh

But it does appear that there is a possibility we may get more money for the sale than the independent valuation?

Maybe I'm reading too much into that possibility but I think seems very good news.

I had always assumed, wrongly it seems, that if AA exercised their option to buy after 2mt cont copper was reached, that we would have to accept the independent valuation. As CB stated, a “mechanical process” so I assumed no negotiations would or indeed could take place

However, in the interview posted today, at 14 min 10 secs CB stated…

“It’s a mechanical process, computer driven, not subjective, and undertaken by a third party. And of course, we are not forced to accept that value.”

So surely this means we could reject the offer and ask for more money from AA, or even ask another major if they could beat it? As there will be variables in the calculations ie POC, recovery rate etc there must be a spectrum of valuation from low to high.

Maybe I’ve misunderstood the situation but surely if we can reject the offer that is excellent news as we can then, in effect, go out to auction with other majors and say – beat this offer if you can or pay us more AA?

Or have a misunderstood this?

1Plus

Snap !

From another board

Xtract and Jubilee discussions

Xtract mainly discussed at start

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WFUFdHX62Q

>>but strangely feel even more optimistic today than I did when the price was knocking on 9p!! >>>>

I Agree. I’ve given this some thought as to why I feel more relaxed now, even after this big fall, then when the sp was higher.

I think the main reason is because xtract seems to have now progressed from a ‘hit and hope’ very small co to a much more professional company with belief and real expectation.

The presentation seemed very professional with Hills and Read making the co seem, for want of a better word, “all grown-up”.

Cornford’s article today reinforced this belief. Get rich quick punters seemed to have left leaving well informed long term investors (long for Aim) remaining.

Of course my optimism could be because I’m a naïve, gullible, fool ! I hope not.