Member Info for Andrew4444

Howezap

Your 2 x 501k buys have just appeared.

Well done on getting more at this price!

"In addition to targeting the shallower parts of the Racecourse system, full review of the recently completed MIMDAS IP/resistivity survey has shown a substantial area of strong chargeability closely adjoining the south-eastern margin of the Racecourse deposit, with a footprint as least as large as the currently defined mineral resource. "

Delta

My assessment of probability v sp is this:

95% chance of sp getting to 10p, thereafter 20% reduction in probability with every 10p rise so:

75% chance of sp getting to 20p
55% chance of sp getting to 30p
35% chance of sp getting to 40p
15% chance of sp getting to 50p
so I would think 55 / 60p would be the realistic max

This is not investment advice, but if I were you, I would seriously consider averaging down (if funds allow) to below 35p.

Hi James

I think your 33K toz is probably more accurate and for the reasons you stated. I gave the caveat re my methodology and assumptions re Empress figure as it seemed a bit crude. 30k to 33k seems more likely.

Well remembered. Yes the 556 oz was the direct cost quoted in DFS and also in CB interviews. I forgot the exact figure and source.

Ella

It was repeated in a few interviews by CB a year or so ago. May have even been 18 months ago.

CB actually said about $560 and also, "No more than $600 " but I have rounded it up to $600 as CB is the ever optimist.

Agreed, the first few months will be the ramp-up period. I think CB said this a while ago but by 3 months we should be at full production. There may even by a month test period after construction and prior to going into any meaningful production.

These are my best assumptions. Happy to be corrected or read other views / methods.

POG $1800
Production tax (6%) $108
Direct cash costs (CB said not more than $600)
Prod tax + Direct cash costs $708
Corporation Tax (32%) (32% of profit) $349
Net Profit per ounce $743
Margin % 41%

Xtract get 23% of Gold production.
We are not paying anything towards capex so AISC not relevant to Xtract just production costs and tax.

Three assumptions re possible annual Gold production:

1. Last year CB said he expects 100kg a month to be produced. IF so that’s 38.5K toz
2. 215K toz over 7 year LOM = 30K toz a year.
3. Empress expect to get 577 toz per year at 2.25% Royalty. 2.25% is 1/44 so annual production should be 25.4K toz (577 x 44). I’m not sure if this method is correct to extrapolate total annual production. However, It does appear to be in the ball park of a reasonable expectation though.

At assumption 1. (38.5K / 12 months) x 0.23% = 738 toz to Xtract. 41% margin =302 toz profit x $1800 pog= $544K a month = £400K profit a month

At assumption 2. Same method but 30K toz = $425K = £305K a month profit

At assumption 3. Same method but 25.4K = $360K= £260K a month profit

Worst case assumption sees Xtract getting £260K a month but IF CB’s 100KG a month prod figures is correct, that increases to £400K.

So maybe reasonable to assume £300k to £325K a month clear profit.

As its certain FB will be built (bar act of God) we will certainly get a substantial increase in income within the next 3 to 6 months.

I wonder what that will do to the SP :)

“With all contractors having returned, we anticipate improving operations in line with the final quarter of 2020".

The final quarter for alluvials were the worst ever (until this one) so if we go back to that level then alluvial income will be extremely low. In the big picture, alluvial income is now becoming nearly insignifcant.

And that's when POC was 25% lower value at $7500 (Mar 2011).

Table 2 and 3 shows the 50% increase in cont copper when cut-off is reduced from 0.3% to 0.2%. This mark-up is also supported in the Caravel Mineral presentation I've also posted here before.

In the Lachlan Star study it confirmed that the economic cut-off can be as low as 0.15% IF POC is $10,000+

Still nothing released and we have now just completed Q2 period ! He must have them by now.

Q1 results are usually the worst quarter due to heavy rains. As Q4 results were very bad (I think the worst ever for full quarter) , I'm not expecting Q1 to be very good. That maybe an understatement.

I assume this very long delay is because CB is waiting for some good news to release at same time?? 3D modelling ? Open pit calcs? Start of phase 2 drilling?

Also, it would also be nice to know when the AGM is.

I hope its is as good as that. In theory it could be.

That would see this Porphyry in the same ball park as Cadia (biggest in Australia) and nearly twice as big as Northparkes.

I'm not saying it can't be that big, or your assumptions / calcs are wrong, but it just seems too good to be true.

I'd be happy with 2mt cont copper and would take that now if offered.

I hope you're right!

So CB has now caught up with Empress Royalty timescale re Fairbride of late Q3 production. Its now looking very likely we will get at least £300K a month income before the end of the year. If delayed, then 99% certain that level of min income in Q1 2022 latest. imho

I know Bushranger is the big prize, but I consider that level of income from FB meaningful.

In/ by Q1 2022 I expect Eureka / GF/BE to be also making a contribution to monthly income so I would think we will be at least £400K a month by early 2022.

You can pay for a lot of drilling with that amount of income.

I guess that shows how serious Xtract shareholders take their investment!

News report: “ Asteroid hitting the earth in 20 mins and all human life wiped out”

Xtract Shareholders: “Hmm. I wonder how that will affect the share price? Should I sell or buy more?”

That said, if CB was the person giving the 20 mins asteroid impact time I suspect most xtract shareholders would be relaxed about the situation - knowing that we still have at least another 2 million years left before impact :)

I love the fact that the concern with an asteroid strike is over supply of copper and not human extinction :)

I thought CB said he had to pay drill contractors in part advance to secure services due to high demand? I may be wrong about that but that;s in the back of my mind.

The African assets would have taken a reasonable amount from the two placings and dont forget we are running at a loss as a company, so I would be surprised if we have got £5M left. This is why I think FB income before the end of the year, is important.

If we dont get any additional income by November I think we will get another raise.

If so, the good news is that CB will be ramping away in September /October driving the sp up !

"The economic cut-off grade derived from the Scoping Study is 0.20% copper and 0.15% copper at copper prices of US$7,500/t and US$10,000/t, respectively."

I know I've shown this before, but worth repeating.

On slide 7 (link below) of Caravel Porphory it shows how the cont copper increases from 0.3% cut off down to 0.15%.

62% increase from 0.3 to 0.2% (So the current JORC 0.3mt should be nearly 0.5mt at 0.2% cut off)
93% increase from 0.3 to 0.15% (So 0.3 mt should be 0.6mt at 0.15% cut-off)

Realistic worst case imho should be 1mt cont copper (and that would be very disappointing) and we know CB has said majors would be interested at 1mt.

So at low ball 1.5% cont copper sale for 1mt , value would be circa £100M = circa 10p + African assets. (1 Billion fully diluted)

They way I see it - will sp 'only' go to 10p, or 20p (likely) or 30p probable or 40p (possible)

Of course AIMHO

https://caravelminerals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020-11-AGM.pdf

whoops! 2020 =2021 and 2021= 2022

1. Fair bride is 100% going to get built
2. We will have £300K to £400K income FCF per month in Q1 2021 very latest - probably in Q4 2020.

That alone will justify an sp of circa 3p to 4p with zero value attributed to all other African projects and excluding Bushranger.

At this sp, it has been derisked.

SP has fallen, not because assay results are bad, but because they were not as good as CB implied in his many ramping interviews.

Of course, AIMHO

HI James

They didnt specifically say Q4 for income but they said income a month or so after production which was due late Q3. They also said income by the end of the year. So Q4 income was my interpretation.

As we have not had confirmation that there has been any major delays (by empress) - I'm confident we will get income by end of the year.

Sad to say I trust empress forward guidance much more than anything CB says.

Hi James

Not too sure if I agree with your comment re slippage. My understanding from previous empress guidance was late Q3 in production and Q4 income. That appears to be the same.

Just poor show that we are trying to search out this info from third parties and not being updated by CB. His last update was over 6 months ago!

So it appears there is no change from their previous guidance of production Q3 and and income in Q4. That's encouraging that there has not been any slippage re FairBride so we should be getting income of at least £300K a month FCF in next 6 months.

I pity we have to rely on third parties to find out what is happening re our assets and dont have this info from CB !!