Member Info for Andrew4444

Cyber

If CB did a deal at 15p a share I would feel robbed !

Esp after what he has said re valuatons in the weekend roast interview.

If you mean that 15p is "half sensible" because its half the valuation - then I would be more inclined to accept it !

But I still probably wouldn't :)

LR

Using $9000 POC and low 2% value to Xtract of in ground value = $360M = £263M

At 1billion shares fully diluted, that would equate to 26.3p ex African assets

It would appear that 3% is more typical for sale so that would see an sp of circa 40p

It would seem that CB has as good as confirmed we will hit 2mt and is talking about more than that. I would think a range of 40p to 80p is probable.

I have always dismissed the talk of £1 but as we get more info that is starting to look a possibility - albeit still unlikely.

I think 20p is 99% certain assuming no black swan events.

Of course AIMO.

Hopefully, by tomorrow we'll all be thinking this re the market's reaction....:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDSPwexlyTo

I meant tenner, as in ten pence :)

The only gamble at this sp is when do you sell?

At this price its like buying £20 notes for a tenner.

Shorn

Thanks for finding out and reporting back.

"have they any plans to make better use of their website, twitter and RNS for getting the message out"

I think this is a great point.

Only a small number of people really know of the potential here. We now need a PR offensive using many different comms methods. Maybe CB needs to start embracing social media more??

That PR offensive at same time of substantial news flow should see a significant rerate.

Dibs

I agree with you that we should keep an open mind, but we also must also keep it real. Or this fantastic investment opportunity is discredited and just seems like a typical aim ramp share. Which it certainly is not

CB is not known for understating things and he is talking about 1B tonnes ore which at 0.3%/0.4%/0.5% cueq would mean 3m /4m /5m tonnes of contained copper. That would be amazing and I think possible, but nothing like twice the size of the biggest porphyry is Australia. In theory possible (but many things are in theory), but not in any way realistic.

As I say, my worry is that this excellent investment opportunity is lost in the noise of fantastical predictions which just discredit the true investment case here.

Lucky

If you are saying we will have 14.5m tonnes of contained copper then unfortunately that wont be the case.

Cadia is a monster and the biggest porphyry in Australia and that has 7.5M tonnes of cont copper.

Northparkes is the second biggest porphyry at 3.4m tonnes cont copper. If we came close to that, that would be outstanding.

If things go as well here as many of us believe, we may all be retiring soon at the same time- whatever our age :)

I should have said

AA have first refusal to accept the independent valuation as long as we also agree to the valuation !

Shorn

That's my understanding as well.

Your point that "folks are overcomplicating this" is one that I agree with.

AA have first refusal to accept the independent valuation. That's it.

If The agreement is as rigid as some think, then there would be no point in Xtract trying to go over the 2mt. And thats not the case.

can't = can last sentence

Hi Ella

But having to sell to AA and also having the option to reject the valuation, seems to me to be mutually exclusive.

In addition, the RNS said AA have a once only opportunity to exercise the buy-out, and that would not be the case if they kept coming back with a higher offer. CB said we don’t have to accept the valuation, so if we can’t agree a value with AA then we don’t have to sell to AA .

I may be wrong, but I see this as AA have first refusal to exercise buy-out against the independent valuation and if we say no, (because we reject the valuation), then we are free to speak to others.

If that's wrong then CB is wrong to say we can't reject the AA offer as at some point we will have to whether we think its fair or not.

"We don't know the detail but it may be that what CB meant was that we can challenge the valuation rather than we don't need to sell to AA".

Hi Ella

As far as I'm aware, CB was pretty clear that we don't need to accept the valuation. 17m 45 secs in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDv0OEknsLk

He also said the same thing in another interview 2 months ago.

I may have got this wrong, but my thought process re the 2mt buy-out option is this. When we get to 2mt cont copper, AA can make a buy-out offer against an independent valuation. But, very importantly, we do not have to accept the offer.

If CB and the team know the pit is open ended and there is likely to be alot more potential at footrot, why would we accept the offer when we believe its highly likely that further drilling will increase the cont copper amount?

The only way we would accept the 2mt offer is if we thought that we had reached the limit at 2mt and nothing more could be gained by further drilling. My understanding from the recent interviews is that CB thinks (knows) that there is more than 2mt.

Because we don’t have to accept the independent valuation, maybe this 2mt buy-out option is, in reality, irrelevant?

Of course I may have misunderstood the situation and got that completely wrong !

Cadia and Ridgeway owned by Newcrest. Both Porphyry deposits. Near by

That said, China Molybdenum own Northparkes porphyry also near. So I woudnt discount them.

I just think both of those could offer a higher price than AA and make more profit due to lower processing costs.

A three way auction would be good :)

I think we can discount any major infill programme by us.

at 50m intervals for 3km x 1.5km that would cost £162M assuming £150 a m drill cost at 600mts length

at 100m intervals it would be £40.5m

I'm sure a major will be making an offer before we start to do a big infill programme.

As CB has said AA and Xtract dont need to accept the independent valuation.

I'm still sticking with my prediction that Newcrest will be the major who buys us out as they have processing plants in the area and own other mines very close to Racecourse.

I think they could offer a higher price than AA for same profit margin.

News

I dont know if you meant the last one he did - which is here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDv0OEknsLk

Not aware of any weekend one??

CE and Joeman

I agree with you both, that according to latest guidance there is no question we should be getting income this year. But it's not uncommon for CB's timescales to slip a bit :)

So I'm adding on the CB factor and going for a slight slippage bringing income into Jan / Feb, I hope I'm wrong but in the big picture income in Dec or Jan or Feb doesnt matter that much imho.