Member Info for Andrew4444

In that case I wouldnt want a quick sale until footrot was drilled. I believe that the IP survey was good there, so unless we do some drilling we cant value it accurately. Footrot could be hiding 1 to 2 mt ?

Because of the unknown factor, it may be silly to accept a quick sale until we did more drilling in all areas with potential .

Hello CE

Thank for the info.

Maybe I'm being unrealistic or just bloody greedy, but if we sold out for 25 to 30p now I would be a little disappointed!

Just a little disappointed mind :)

Hi James

That's good to know. Thanks

I also think it unlikely that would be the reason (as stated in my post) but , like you, I've been here long enough to know that delay in news doesnt always mean good news is coming :)

Occam's razor says he's waiting to release good news just before the AGM......I think!

But what type of storm will we have? Rerate RNS with 3d model blowing the doors off or news that latest assay results / drill results not as good as previous? The lack of news could be due to CB waiting for other assay results / drill results to cover some disappointing results.

That may be unlikely, but having been her many years that does start to pay on my mind when news is delayed.
That said, I am assuming that CB would not have been so bullish on Thursday with the claim that we will definitely hit 2mt (reported comment) and talk of 25p to 30p, if the next set of results were going to be disappointing.

So I am assuming the wait will be worth while and he is waiting to release the good news a day or so before the AGM on Monday. That seems more likely imo.

time since more updates.

So when is Steve4077 gonna give us more info about tax advantages of living in IOM :)

tbh I only read this board for that now :)

With resource stocks the "multiplier effect" would mean a greater than 30% increase in profits for a major.

Example for illustration.

If breakeven was $6K and POC was $10K then $4K profit margin. If POC increased by 20% to $12K then profit would be $6K so 50% increase in profits. I think a major would be prepared to pay more than the extra 20% increase in POC.

I maybe wrong, but I think a higher POC would disproportionately increase buy-out imo.

Cygnus

I've mentioned that before.

What is between Footrot and the SE anomalies? I don't believe that has ever been IP let alone drilled? If you draw the line from open pit to footrot there is a big area that may be of interest???

I believe the total distance from NE open pit to footrot is 10KM, same length as cadia system.

Just saying.....:)

Hostage to fortune giving anticipated monthly income figures, but my best guess by end of Q1 is:

Fairbride £350K
Alluvial £50K
GF + BE £150K
Eureka £200K

Total £750K a month profit by end of Q1 .

Note. These figures are profit, so after all costs and tax. Not headline revenue figures

Ella

I also thought it seemed rather pointed to just mark Cadia Ridgeway on its own. That said, there may be nothing in this and i may be reading too much into it - but it did seem a bit strange.

A few times on this board and In CB interviews, Greatland Gold / Sol Gold / Eurasia mining have all been referenced as a comparison to Xtract re possible potential increase after a discovery.

It’s Interesting looking at what happened to those three companies and in what time scale.

Greatland Gold
MC £65M to £1473M. Increase of £1408M over 12.5months

SolGold
MC £68M to £1048M. Increase of £980M over 12months

Eurasia Mining
MC £96M to £1140M. Increase of £1044M over 8months

These increases support Commodity Fund Manager, Willem Middelkoop’s, assessment that the MC of a junior miners can easily increase by 250M to 1000M after a discovery.

As we have circa 1billion shares (fully diluted) those increases IF they happened to Xtract, would see an sp increase of between 98p to £1.40p.

This may well be an unscientific comparison as all companies are obviously different, but it does show the fantastic potential here of a significant rerate if/when a big discovery is measured and confirmed.

We may not get the exceptionally high £1B increase in MC that the other three juniors did (that is unusual), but a circa £500M increase is quite possible and IF that happened then a sp of 50p appears reasonable.

This is not supposed to be a model to predict the future sp here just an illustration of the fantastic potential here and the increase in MC and over what timescale when big discoveries are found by juniors.

Obviously our actual future sp increase will be determined by a number of factors, many not yet known.

Steve Yep completely agree with everything you say. Spot on.

Hence why I made my original comment.

Glad we are in agreement !

Now for the excellent assay results, which hopefully even the unresearched or stupid market will understand:)

But then again....

"there seems to be a disconnect between RNS and market reaction IMO."

Steve

that was my comment prior to market opening and in respect to what has happend in the past, not today.

I agree with your comments about doing research, but the fact that the market often reacts in a way that doesn't seem logically shows that not everyone does their research.

That was my point.

It seems good news to me looking at IP results, but I winder if the market may think its going to take longer than expected and react accordingly?

TBH I have no idea as there seems to be a disconnect between RNS and market reaction IMO.

I have plenty of time to sit and wait. Maybe the market doesnt??

I've no ide how the market will take this news. Maybe some assay results tomorrow morning before the meeting?

Steve

I agree with your comparison with both BBs, but I wonder what this board will be like in a year or so time after the sp has hit 40p + and the herd have arrived? I suspect it may be just as extreme and polarised as GGP is now.

In the week after our massive January rise this board turned into twitter for a week, infested with rampers and ill informed posts. I guess it’s the price any BB has to pay after the sp has taken off and the herd have arrived. EUA went the same way.

For a few years, some time ago, I noted the TA prediction for this share to see it proved correct. It was right about half the time so I concluded it had no statistical significance. Its a bit like have a voting survey in a city but only asking 5 people and predicting results from that insignificant small sample.

TA probably has a role in very high volume large caps but not one where the sp may change if the CEO reports that he's found a £1 coin in the car park.

Iceberg

But there is a hole in the tank :)

That £8M was at end of June and before phase 2 started. We also have circa £100K a month G and A.

How much will be left after phase 2 completed? I'm sure there will be a phase 3.

If funds were not going to be an issue due to African assets coming on stream very soon, I'm not too sure why CB wants to issue more warrants?

Cygnus

Agreed.

Bushranger is the Rolls Royce and African assets are the petrol. Without the petrol the RR can't do anything and therefore loses most of its value....to the owner.

And depreciates in value as its just sits there.

I guess it’s a matter of opinion what exit strategy people use in deciding when to sell / top slice. Its all very well not selling in a vacuum, but that vacuum can be filled quickly with unexpected bad news. Then it would be too late. In addition, SP movement is not just governed by news or fundamentals. Fear, greed sentiment and animal instincts drive buys and sells and therefore the SP. No one can predict them as they are driven by emotion and the market can turn irrational, and quickly.

To mitigate risk, I think it sensible to top slice as the sp moves up. Others may disagree. I guess its all a matter of opinion. Investors strategy should be driven by what people feel comfortable in doing.

Btw re dividend payments. CB has said in two separate interviews some time ago, that he is not in favour of paying dividends. He said something like “ that’s what CEOs do when they have run out of ideas”. Maybe he will change is mind?

Joe

In all honesty my sizeable holding here was due to my strategy of averaging down and trying to sell out at breakeven. I, like many, was seriously underwater due to the Jan Nelson time. I just wanted to ameliorate my loses or breakeven. So I kept averaging down…and down…and down. My long term view and exit strategy started to change after CB took control.

I think by pure luck, rather than by good judgment, is why I find myself in this advantageous position. If I previously thought a win was walking away with a slight loss / breakeven, I’m prepared to be ballsy with my exit strategy now, as can’t see anyway I’m not going to make some profit now. My average is 2.3p

Btw, some LTH confirmed their holding a year or so ago. It makes mine seem like mere bagatelle in comparison !

I’ve said before that for many the hardest thing now will be deciding when to top slice or sell out. I’m sure many at Greatland Gold / Eurasia / Sol Gold all were ecstatic after selling after massive gains, only to be gutted when they looked at the SP again 6/12 months later !

I have a substantial holding all ISA wrapped. The advantage of being here for over 7 years and having 4 family isa accounts !

My plan is to top slice £20K after each 1p rise after 20p then £30k each 1p rise after 30p, £40K 40p etc. IF this gets to £1 (it probably wont) , this approach will leave me with multiple millions of shares left. If it doesn’t get above say 30p I would only have sold a small amount of my holding and can then benefit from a reasonably high sp price.

My “worry” has always been selling out too early and then realising 12 months later I could have made millions more.

Whether that plan proves to be correct is another matter !