Member Info for Andrew4444

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz6SpaX5e54

Quick manica reference at 1m 55 sec.

Interview 22 Nov

Good post Dibs.

The only question is how far will this fall? If excellent drill results and assay results have no effect on the sp then a few more excellent drill / assay RNSs may not stop the fall? We may well need something different such as the revised model? (or something the market understands)

I’m ambivalent about the sp fall as I believe the sp will be multiples of current price within 6 to 12 months.

I loved the way the presenter read the autocue.

She spoke as if she hadnt a clue what the words meant:)

She's no Colin Bird - in more ways then one !

I've found the two RNSs I was referring to re phase 2 of drill campaign. 13 holes x 2 with est mtrs stated.

I havnt been keeping a record of mtrs drilled but it looks like Andymillsy has so I would go with that figure.

12 July

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-project-phase-two-drill-planning-fzcq9aq6ddtudzo.html

13 Oct
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-drilling-and-licence-update-vpgpoctrvouww01.html

Ella

I can't remember. I think it was in the 2 RNSs I mentioned.

I make it 32 holes in total to be drilled in the drill campaign. That was according to the RNSs

6 in Phase 1 (although H4 stopped)
13 phase 2a
13 phase 2b

Total 32

This ties in to the number of holes shown on the drill map in the RNS.

However, there is another map showing blue dot future drill holes (I think 5 more so that's 37). I assume we will be having another drilling campaign to drill the blue dot locations?? This may be called continuation of phase 2b or phase 3??

So in answer to your question, I believe we only have 2 more holes to drill according to the two RNSs a few months ago, but more will be drilled according to the blue dot map.

Thats my understanding anyway.

Agreed Steve. That's why I also said

"The two companies do seem to have some basis for comparison, but maybe when you look closer they have completely different costs? Maybe?"

I can only hope (and think) that the market, like here, has not caught up with the potential in that company?? Hence low MC??

If that's fair valuation against potential, then that would translate to £80M mc for our 2mt cont CUEq.

I can't believe that's correct

The two companies do seem to have some basis for comparison, but maybe when you look closer they have completely different costs? Maybe?

I think it more likely than not that we wont need a raise as we should have enough cib left before FB income comes in. It maybe close though so we will need FB income coming through by end of Q1

However, Its worth remembering that we will only be getting 13% of BA and GF income so the headline figures CB stated are nothing like what we will get. After costs and % reduction for our share I would think GF and BA would be giving us £100K to £150K a month FCF. And that may not be this year, possible after Q1 .

Nearly all of the alluvial income was from traditional alluvial work - a bit from GF. As CB stated in the evening meeting, alluvial income is unpredictable (GF income may be more robust) so we may find that alluvial income has reduced substantially next quarter - or stayed the same? It can't be relied upon though.

tbh I'm not expecting too much income from alluvial, GF and BA this year. The rains are coming and DEc Jan Feb are usually poor months for traditional alluvial income.

For me its all about FB producing its substantial, and moreover reliable income by end of Q1. I think it will. The other income, if it happens this year, will be a a nice top up.

CB has been very clear and consistent when we will be getting income from African assets.

In 2017 he said it would be next year, he said the same thing again in 2018, and again in 2019 and again in 2020.

How many times does CB have to keep saying the same thing before people understand :)

If you are correct that there will be a funding gap, then hopefully sp will be well above 10p by the time a raise is required and in the teens possibly. With the warrant money, I would think that any raise would not be too dilutional (if that is the right word) so impact on sp would be minimal?

I maybe coming round to your way of thinking by xmas after FB update. I hope not though !

Sq52

I think that's a very fair and balanced post but the one issue I would disagree with is that you dont think we will be getting significant revenue until Q2. I've been much more pessimistic than most re African revenue timing - hence I said that I didnt think we would get any declared income before end of this year. Many seemed to think that was very pessimistic at the time of my post in early October,

I still think that will be the case (save for a little bit from GF) but I do think we will be getting declared FB income in early Q1, That will be a min of £300K a month FCF (poss £350k), CB said recently plant will be built be end of this year and Empress Royalty has same latest guidance. So after a month plant testing we will be having income before Q2. That should see us with enough income from FB before we need to raise. We may well get more income from GF and some from Eureka in Q1.

So at this moment I am confident we wont need to raise even without 8.5p warrant s. That view may change after FB update in xmas.

Zap

Some may say (not me of course) that you you can delete the last three words from your last sentence and it would still be true....:)

(Obviously this doesn't apply to our Ella :))

Gixxer

You declared your % holding a year or so ago. I remember it as it was similar to my holding.

If you havnt sold many / any, then I would think that bike purchase would be loose change :)

Steve 4077

I saw your post on the other board re CB 10m options. He actually has 20m options.

A few years ago he was also issued.

3,333,333 at 1p
3,333,333 at 1.25p
3,333,333 at 2p

So even more incentive for him to get the sp higher :)

Things must be improving here if Xtract are now replying to emails :)

What next? Answering the phone ?!

I have no idea what the methodology is re valuation calculations but what I do know is that CB has said that the value will be much higher than his previous sale of $260M and that we probably have more than the $400M sale he referenced. That would equate more than 19p up to 30p fully diluted. He has rubbished 10p valuation.

He has also mentioned 25 to 30p at the evening presentation.

So there is a consistent view by him of a sale valuation of circa 25p, certainly in the 20ps range. Unless CB doesnt know what he's talking about or is just making things up then circa 25p is what I expect if sold now.

But that is against current known resource and prior to what there is in the se extension (maybe nothing of course). So possibly 50p IF SE extension is as good as current open pit??? Which seems possible or even probable.

Maybe I've (and CB) have got this all wrong but thats my understanding and expectation re valuation.

BTW a derisory offer of 10p sees the sp double. Just a thought.

7c a pound looks reasonable as that would mean 2mt cont copper =4.4Billions lb of copper x 7c = $308M = £225M = 22.5p fully diluted.

Yes Joe. CB is 78 today.

Happy Birthday CB

Lets hope he gets a great birthday present with some fantastic assay results today :)

tbh I see the fluctuations in sp over recent days as background noise. Maybe there are a few PO shares being flipped, or some traders doing their thing, but I'm very sure the sp will be multiples of what it is now in 6 to 12 months time.

So I'm relaxed about the current and any future sp fluctuations.