RE: Assay Results7 Dec 2021 13:35
To be honest, I’m relaxed about the sp drop. It does not reflect the fundamentals here imo.
CB may exaggerate a bit and be overly optimistic at times but he’s not an idiot. He has unequivocally stated, a few times, that we have at least 2mt CuEq. His reputation would be in taters if he announced we hadn’t now reached that threshold. No one would ever believe a word he ever says again.
Its for that reason I‘m confident we have 2mt but my concern is how that translates to a higher SP. CB has not been as dogmatic or unequivocal of the revised SP after buy-out. His 25p to 30p comment was his expectation but there are a number of variables in that assessment, outside his control, such as the POC that is used in the assessment and % buy-out.
As previously stated I’ve now dismissed the 3% buy-out figure, that Cornford used, as that seems to be more appropriate in a measured resource. In fact 2% seems optimistic from looking at other like for like sales.
Although 1.75% seems reasonable, we may be in for a surprise and discover the % buy-out is much lower than many expected, say 1.4% and the POC used could also be low, at say $8000 . I don’t think this will be the case but there is a possibility it could be much lower than most have assumed.
That said, even if those very pessimistic values are used, at 2mt CuEq that would equate to an sp of 17p (ex African assets and excluding SE / SW and footrot). If we add on a very low valuation for African assets of say 3p, then 20p would seem the absolute minimum the sp should hit some time next year. And that would be assuming there is zero value in the SW / SE extensions and footrot.
That's why I'm relaxed about the drop.
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