Member Info for Andrew4444

"anyone on here know the projected income from eureka?"

In an interview in Oct 2020 CB stated it would be $200K to $250K a month. But also stated that he didnt want it to just stop at that. He implied that would be the starting amount and it would build up as operations increased.

Make of that what you will. I'm looking at circa £200K a month but I'm not now expecting that until Q2.

Cygnus

Understood.

I did think $15000 POC was a tad ambitious. That said, looking at some predictions $15K may not be too far off in the next 2 years :)

Cygnus

I believe the calcs in your last assumption are wrong. Using $15000 POC, the total value is $15B not $10.50B.
So the sp would need to be increased by 43% (X 1.43)

15000 $10.5 B £7.88 S.P (p)
0.01 £7.9 M 7.9
0.015 £11.82 11.8
0.02 £15.76 15.7
0.025 £19.70 19.7

"My own rampy estimate is circa 18p per share,"

Rampy estimate you say ??!!

I hope that wasnt a ramp as I and a few others are going to be very disappointed with the buy-out offer :)

CB said....

"The dedication, energy and skills I have applied, and continue to apply, are more appropriate to companies which are at an earlier stage of their development, and I look forward to continuing my endeavours in that arena."

" But when I do similar sums I divide by a random factor to take account of the level of JORC that will be used"

I agree. That needs to be taken into account.

imo I've taken that into account by using 1.8% buy-out as I'm assuming its not measured. it appears that the 3%, often quoted by Cornford, was against a measured JORC so my 1.8% is discounted to take into account the level of JORC. Some may think 1.8% is too low.

I guess its a matter of opinion. No one really knows exactly :)

If the open pit was proven up to 2.2mt and at $9000 POC 1.8% buy-out that would = circa 27p. Imo accepting 27p would be giving the buyer all other areas for free. I have no problem in doing this method to get a sale agreed quicker, and less money and time for us, but I would want much more than 30p.

It looks highly likely that Ascot will be same if not more CuMt as open pit. And thats not attributing any value to other areas.

I'm hoping the African income will stop a major forcing our hand with this sale and having to sell quickly or at a low ball figure. Its all a matter of opinion but I think 25p to 30p would be too low.

Others may disagree.

I didn’t think the presentation was as good or informative as the last webinar, but I did find it useful. Especially the diagrams.

I think the problem the BoD have now is that they seem to be repeating the same thing but in different ways. It was strongly hinted that the SE extension could be as big if not bigger then the open pit. That has not been confirmed as we await assay results, but still seems likely.

Apart from the name change to Ascot what substantial new info was there? It was often speculated what the SE could be. It was more of a reinforcement of what we thought.

We keep getting good drill results and assay results, so will more make much difference? Again its all a reinforcement of what we think we have.

I think we are going to need substantial news such as 3d resource model or even revised JORC or FB income before the market reacts . I'm happy to wait until the market understands what we have - even if that takes a few more months.

All of course imo. I may be wrong

Howzap

It appears the webinar was done on Thursday? At 3m30s CB said

"Hole 35 as reported today"

"So that only gives me Dec, Jan and Feb pay cheques to buy more at these prices!"

Probably! But who knows. Over the next month the market may finally catch-up and respond accordingly?

By about the same time as resource model is being released, we should be getting confirmation of first income amount from FB. A significant event imo.

So end of Q1 2022 should start to see a significant rerate in the SP imo.

Unless I've misunderstood Quinton Hills, at 10m 50s he seemed to confirm that the resource model will only be released after all assay results were in for open pit. ??

So I'm not expecting any model until late Feb / early March. Assuming I;ve interpreted what he said correctly??

I’m almost tempted to say that I hope there will be a raise next year.

If the FB income (£300K a month certain to happen by Q2) + likely other African income, is not enough to service the drilling costs then we will be into a very big drilling campaign. I believe that will mean we are drilling in other areas (SW extension? New North East extension? Footrot? + obviously Ascot).

The IP surveys seems to be confirming copper mineralisation, so it’s not unreasonable to assume the good IP results ( that we have in those areas), will translate to additional resource / may be new systems.

As others have said, the SP will only reach its potential after a buy-out is agreed, but it will certainly start to climb as African income comes in and as more areas are proven up. But what will the SP be by then? Imo, high enough to support another £5M maybe, £10M raise which wont dilute too much.

Down side is that I’m not expecting a buy-out until mid 2023 as CB will want to realise all potential from all areas and that will take time.

Of course AIMO

I've read it a few times to and each time it seems to be clearly saying exactly the same thing to me. In short, they dont think the will need any additional funding until mid 2022 earliest.

I think the length of the paragraph is designed to make it more "water tight" rather than to confuse.

imo

Empress Royalty update 3 weeks ago re Manica

"The mining contractor has been mobilized and preparations are underway for commencement of mining. MMP reports it expects to commence initial production in the first quarter of 2022. Empress has completed two site visits in 2021 through a third party engineering firm, and receive weekly updates from management on construction progress."

https://empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/6215/emprnr2021-24_updateoninvestments.pdf

Note weekly updates. If there was a delay I'm sure Empress would have updated their shareholders (even if CB wouldnt :))

I'm still convinced we will get first income by end of Q1 2022

"If I had to be totally honest I think Colin fumbled the bag somewhat with this morning's interview"

Agreed. A missed opportunity to update us / market on FB progress other African assets and anticipated income . Not too sure it told us much that we didnt now (a bit but not much).

We need something like updated resource model / group meeting with Hills + Read. imo.

As has been said before, PR offensive and more use of social media.

We're in Australia

Most prestigious horse race in Australia - Melbourne cup

so how about Melbourne !!??

If anyone wants a real mind blowing comparison then look at Chalice mining.

Circa £25M MC to £2Billion in 2 years. (highly unlikely we will do that...buts it does happen!)

Miner in ........... Australia :)

lloyd

Re your question on comparisons.

A few times on this board and In CB interviews, Greatland Gold / Sol Gold / Eurasia mining have all been referenced as a comparison to Xtract re possible potential increase after a discovery.

This is what happened to them:

Greatland Gold
MC £65M to £1473M. Increase of £1408M over 12.5months

SolGold
MC £68M to £1048M. Increase of £980M over 12months

Eurasia Mining
MC £96M to £1140M. Increase of £1044M over 8months

These increases support Commodity Fund Manager, Willem Middelkoop’s, assessment that the MC of a junior miners can easily increase by 250M to 1000M after a discovery.

As we have circa 1billion shares (fully diluted) those increases IF they happened to Xtract, would see an sp increase of between 98p to £1.40p.

This may well be an unscientific comparison as all companies are obviously different, but it does show the fantastic potential here of a significant rerate if/when a big discovery is measured and confirmed.

We may not get the exceptionally high £1B increase in MC that the other three juniors did (that is unusual), but a circa £500M increase is quite possible and IF that happened then a sp of 50p appears reasonable.

If we don't get any news this week then I would assume the radio silence is due to a significant announcement next week?

My best guess would be the revised 3d resource model?

I would think something must be happening behind the scenes??

556 oz was the direct cost quoted in DFS.
However, CB has said since, costs would be no more than $600, so I think it best to use that as worst case.

These are my best assumptions. Happy to be corrected or read other views / methods.

Assuming:

POG $1800
Production tax (6%) $108
Direct cash costs (CB said not more than $600)
Prod tax + Direct cash costs $708
Corporation Tax (32%) (32% of profit) $349
Net Profit per ounce $743
Margin % 41%

Xtract get 23% of Gold production.
We are not paying anything towards capex so AISC not relevant to Xtract just production costs and tax.

Two assumptions re possible annual Gold production:

1. Last year CB said he expects 100kg a month to be produced. IF so that’s 38.5K toz

2. I believe in DFS it stated 215K toz over 7 year LOM = 30K toz a year..

At assumption 1.
(38.5K / 12 months) x 0.23% = 738 troy oz to Xtract. 41% margin =302 toz profit x $1800 pog= $544K a month = £400K approx profit a month

At assumption 2.
Same method but 30K toz = $425K = £320K approx a month profit

We know CB can be a bit “optimistic” with his predictions (ie 100kg a month) so £400K may well be a bit too high.

So maybe reasonable to assume £325k to £350K a month clear profit after all tax and costs.

Well, that’s what I’m expecting anyway.