Member Info for Andrew4444

"In the report, Goldman reiterates its bullish forecast for copper to average $11,875 a tonne ($5.40/lbs) in 2021, rising steadily to $15,000 ($6.80/lbs) during 2025".

Tbh I'm ambivalent about the fall back.

Anyone researched here knows where this is going (ie multiples of current sp) so those researched have two options when it falls back

. Either shrug your shoulders and think so what, or use the fall back as an opportunity to buy more.

Holding up well...so far.

Fingers crossed it stays above 10K

Hopefully nearer 11K by time buy out is near?

Just gone through $10K on LME

Lets see if it can stay above it this time???

"In interview Colin has mentioned the majors will be happy if we outline Ascot. Then quickly back tracks and says, “we have to deal with Anglo first”

I remember this comment and it struck me at the time ,CB's preferred option would be it "put this out to auction" so to speak. He gave me the impression that we had to play the game and give AA first bid option but would want to go go to auction with the others. It almost seemed AA was the tick box exercise.

That view may be wrong. But that was the impression he gave me at the time.

We;ll find out in the next 4 months

AS others have said, I think it highly likely CB will have back door conversations with others so he probably has a good idea (I hope) of what the others would pay. Maybe AA will need to make an offer we cant refuse to get this from their one shot.

I've said before I think Newcrest or china molly are better placed to buy this as they are in the area but I check d their MC. AA has x4 the MC of Newcrest or China Molly - twice that of those two combined.

I guess if AA really want this they do have the funds to make a "can't say no "offer but they will have massive capex start up cost . I guess a major has to go through that start up costs pain the first time they go into a new area.

I guess it all depends on how much they want to move into that area.

CB was pretty clear that we don't need to accept the independent valuation. 17m 45 secs in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDv0OEknsLk

AA have first refusal, not a compulsory purchase order.

Its in AAs interest to make a "can't refuse it" first, (and last), offer. If they get the valuation wrong, or we think we can get a better offer from going out to the market then we can do that by rejecting AAs first offer and then the subsequent independent valuation (as CB stated in above interview).

Of course the risk to Xtract is that the other offers are not as good as AAs offer or independent valuation.

"4 posts (now 5) where is everyone?"

All busy talking to their accountant on the best ways to mitigate against substantial CGT :)

Gixxer

I dont need to tell you how CB is prone to being very very optimistic at times :)

Like many of his comments , Ive taken that one with a pinch (sack) of salt !

More than happy to be proved wrong!

Shorn

I agree, but the issue was the buy-out % not the amount of cont cueq. That has obviously increased since CB comments

I believe CB was basing his 25p to 30p estimate on a circa 2% max buy-out AND 2MT. If he was thinking it could be 4% +then he should have been saying 50P.

He may well now revise his 25p estimate to 35p to 40p for the reasons you have stated ie Ascot

Gixxer

I'd love that to be the case but Id be amazed if we got more than 2% buy-out. CB has mentioned 25p to 30p for Racecourse a few times before.

At $9500 POC , 2mt con cueq, 1.8% buy out, 1billion shares fully diluted = circa 25p. So 1.8% seems reasonable.

If we were going to be getting 3% or 4% or more ,then CB should be saying 50p + ex Ascot.

His 25p to 30p range is consistent with 1.7 to 2% buy out. From examples I've seen, this is also consistent with indicated or inferred.

I would be amazed if we got more than 2% Happy to be proved wrong :)

49mins

https://twitter.com/hashtag/xtr?src=hash&f=live

Thanks Ella

I've updated my notes.

Transactional value % will be worth a bit too .

I think ts fair to say CB has great incentive to get the SP (and therefore buyout), as high as possible :)

Well before your time here - 3 Years ago in fact

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/directorpdmr-shareholding-m5g41puow1y4x62.html

Steve4077

For Info. Re Your post on ADFVN.

CB has another 10M options

3,333,333 at 1p
3,333,333 at 1.25p
3,333,333 at 2p

So 34.5M in total

(I dont have an account for that BB so cant post on that BB)

Enough to keep him motivated .. as well as the transactional value % he will get !

For what its worth, I sometimes like to do a dummy buy just before the close to see what the ASK is - as a ref point.

yesterday ASK was 6.1p today 6.491 1 min before close. So I make that 6.4% rise against previous final ASK.

That may not be 100% accurate, but I think that is a more realistic representation of the sp performance than what the official figures state.

City Watcher

Thats a x2.4 increase in 2.5 years (8.5 to 20p)

x2 .4 increase for xtract would be circa 15p at current sp. And thats waiting 2.5 years

As many here expect a 4 bagger minimum this year - not too sure your sales pitch is going to work well on this board :)

I wouldn't want to be out of this over the next 4 months :)

At this rate I would expect the 11am price monitoring RNS ????

Initially it states in production in second half of this year, then it goes on to say in April / May /June?

Maybe the second half of this year should have been second quarter??

I'm now not expecting income until June or July. Maybe the heavy rains and flooding has delayed things a bit??


https://youtu.be/dEHJIqbEZs0

Steve

You are correct.

But that doesnt mean we wont get another fall back to a higher low of, say,5.4p?

My point was that this current rise may not be the break out rise that some think it is / will be. I hope i'm wrong but the 6p door may need a few more runs at it to break it down and this may not be the final run at it :)

But its getting weaker !

I guess we'll know soon enough.