Member Info for Andrew4444

in those last two interviews this week, CB has done nothing to dampen expectation that we will hit 2mt.

If he thought that was unlikely now, surely he would be back tracking with his rather confident and bullish statements?

Well I hope he would !

"And there might be a multi-year lag before any mining is done"

Well according to CB there would be.

He has said a few times that for a big mine, even open pit, it would be 5-10 years to build it. Seems a long time to me but I'm sure he should know and when you look at the time it will have taken FB to get built (and thats very small in comparison), he may well be correct.

He has said many times we will not be building the mine and when you look at his age and the times scales to build, you can see why he doesnt want to wait that long :)

And nor do I come to the that!

Lucky

I agree. I can't see how he can meet his own timescales - as you have implied. Hence my Q4 buy-out prediction after RNS.

What seemed strange is CB's contradiction of saying we keep drilling until we know the boundary but then putting a timescale on it.

I think CB is very aware of possible damage it will do to the sp if he says no buy-out until end this year / early next. As many aim investors are short term he wants to give the impression its not long to wait until the sp rerates, so stay invested. Many may have sold up and jump into next get rich quick share and then come back later if they thought nothing was going t happen for next 6 months.

Tbh I;m relaxed about any possible delay as I, like many others here, would be happy to wait an extra 6 months for a higher buy-out price from more drilling.

The 6p door this time was obviously not as strong as the last one :)

This 6p door was made of paper !

"The modelling will require the conceptual open pit to be closed off in all directions in order to ensure that infrastructure or tailings dams are not incorrectly positioned over what is a continuing ore body."

So may be no model until end of the year !

"Its big Zak its big"

"Althouth I think there must be something happening behind the scenes I am surprised that drill completions are not reported"

I take the opposite view. I would think if there were negotiations behind the scenes then the other party would want complete radio silence.

In addition, it seems highly unlikely that all of a sudden, ALL drill results and assay results are now all bad (hence CB is not releasing any)

The fact that we are not getting ANY news implies, to me anyway, that something is happening behind the scenes.
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Shorn

Thanks for confirmation. I was sure a few posters confirmed the same thing after the October meeting.

Therefore my original point and view still stands then re the likelihood of 2mt. I know CB did not state this in an RNS, but he did state this in front of a group of shareholders. I don't believe everything he says, but nor do I believe he is a complete charlatan !

btw I agree with your thoughts and reasoning on why its all gone quiet.

Re the "definitely got 2mt comment by CB"

I've found the source.

I have no doubt cyberiachas is being honest with his reporting of what he heard CB said at the meeting. I'm sure others reported the same.

The "definite" comment has been edited out. But that doesnt mean CB didnt say it !

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cyberiachas

2 million tonnes plus 23 Oct '21

I've just had a listen to the CB presentation video (having attended in person on the night).

Please someone correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like the " we definitely, definitely, definitely have 2mt " comments have been edited out.

IWTO

"but in respect of 2Mt I think I’ve heard more “I hope so, Zak”s than “definitely”

My understanding is that CB used the words "definitely, definitely, definitely got 2mt" at the meeting

Maybe Gixxer can confirm this as he has the recording?.

Gixxer

Yes I remember you confirming his 2mt comment.

CB can try his best making excuses for not meeting 2mt but I doubt the market, or many shareholders, will buy his excuse or reasoning.

If we dont get 2mt then due to fundamentals and future trust issues with CB, I will revise my 25p to 40p sp prediction to 10p to 15p.

I do believe we will exceed 2mt just from RC. I hope i'm not going to win the award for the most gullible and naive Xtr shareholder :)

We should know in a few months !

The problem of not meeting the 2mt from Racecourse alone, is not so much the lack of copper, but CB's credibility imho.

I understand that CB has said, unequivocally that we have or will get hit 2mt prior to Ascot. I believe this statement has been reported by a few who were at the meeting when he said it and there is a recording of this?

Yes he has been overly optimistic on many things, but not as important and fundamental as this issue. So if we dont get 2mt from RC then maybe very few will believe anything Cb ever says again. His credibility will be shot.

I dont believe CB would be so stupid to gamble his credibility on that statement unless he knew it was accurate.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10548541/MARKET-REPORT-Anglo-American-dodges-market-chaos-divi-bonanza.html

$1billion for Bushranger is small beer to them :)

CB has been very upbeat in the last few interviews. If he knew the latest assay results / drills were not very good I would have thought he would have not have been so sanguine and more circumspect.

I'm assuming CB is not on a mission to trash his reputation and is not an idiot, so I am assuming the results (that he must have by now) are at least decent. So I'm relaxed about the lack of news.

More likely something is going on in the background

(that's a positive thing going on in the background, not negative :))

Lets hope we dont have to wait until all our Ducks are in a row..

I'll probably be dead by 22 22 2222

(I know there isnt a month 22 but comedic licence allows this :) )

Talking about the short fall of Lithium and Copper. We all knew this, but its now being noticed and reported by general main stream media.

Worth a watch on catch-up if you missed it.

Rob

Sorry for delay

https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Bushranger-Summary-Presentation_April-2020.pdf

Rob

I mentioned this a year or so ago (Re page 12 of the document). The problem is that the wording Racecourse and EL5574 is a contradiction as RC is just a part of EL5574.

At the time, most seemed to thing the buy-out was for all of the Licence EL5574 but I wasnt so sure as the word Racecourse was specifically mentioned.

The truth is I dont know and both cases could be made imo. It depends which word you give more credence to: Racecourse or EL5574

I also think the "income from copper in Zambia" can only be Eureka. That was much further advanced than the other projects in Zambia.

I am confused with Eureka progress though.

CB has said months ago we are production ready, and implied it will be very soon. Now we have moved on to "income producing".

Why have we not had an update with this level of progress? Income producing seems very significant to me. I was very surprised how he casually mentions this very important event in the interview.

An official update would be good.

I'm assuming the 3-8% that some say CB quoted was the % of NPV for a selling price. Not the % buy-out. I think that is where the confusion is.

I cannot find any evidence to support a % buy-out of above 3% for a resource that is not measured. Even in a jurisdiction like Australia. Happy to be corrected if anyone can show some examples?

Further, CB estimated the sp buy-out would be 25p to 30p for just Racecourse. If we assume 2mt / $9k POC/ 1.8% buyout/1billion shares fully diluted we get circa 25p. If CB was working on a buyout of 4/5/6% he would have been quoting 45p to 55p buy-out.

I'm assuming a buy-out % of 1.5% to 2% for this indicated / inferred resource. That seems much more consistent with previous examples.

I think we will do well here, very well infact. But I think 25p to 40p are the interquartile range of valuations, with 20p and 50p being the extreme outliers of valuations.

I assume that was a typo in the article and 2021=2022