Member Info for Andrew4444

Interesting read Cygnus

I think luck plays a bigger part in AIM than many would like to admit. Research is obvious very important and can help reduce the risk but there are so many variables / unknowns that it can only help so much. Its then in the lap of the Gods to some extent.

I was also deeply under water here, thanks to Jan Nelson, so I kept averaging down to hopefully get out (with most of my money) on the next spike. I would have been delighted to get all my money back then,,

As things started to change here and prospects improved, I didnt sell out at break even. The irony is that if this had done well as soon as I had started to invest, I would not have had anywhere near as much invested and would have sold out after sp had, say, 5 bagged and made a decent profit of say £50K to £75K.

The fact that the sp kept falling, and I was trying to average down, meant I have ended up with a substantial holding now at sub 2.5p average. My paper profit is now many multiples of my initial target profit of £50K to £75K

Thats down to Jan Nelson's errors , CB rescuing the co but mostly down to pure luck on my part! :)

From RNS

"The modelling will require the conceptual open pit to be closed off in ALL directions in order to ensure that infrastructure or tailings dams are not incorrectly positioned over what is a continuing ore body."

That RNS should stop anyone thinking we are going to be contacting AA anytime soon. Well, I hope not anyway :)

Not too sure how CB is going to meet his own April/May, June latest, guidelines for the open pit update.

My best guess is that the next major news will be re Fairbride rather than open pit size. I'm still sticking with my Q4 buy-out timescale

I've tried to be realistic with my assumptions and believe I have. We are not far off my anticipated alluvial income now, so not much of an ask to get another 14% profit especially as GF and BE are still being progressed and improved upon. My only concern is that Q1 is always the worst quarter for alluvial income due to the rains, so will the higher POG and improved production on GF and BE counter that? Probably imho.

CB could be optimistic with his 100kg a month for FB, so worst case take 10% off that income. The real issue with FB imho is the timing as things keep slipping and we may take longer to ramp-up production.

Worst case. I can't see how manica net PROFIT wont be minimum £650K a month by end of July latest.

IMHO the most important / interesting part of the interview was the confirmation that FB income is very near. Added to the Alluvial + small hard rock production, we should have significant increase in PROFIT (not just income) in the next 2 or 3 months.

If my calcs are correct we my finally be at the $1m a month profit CB said we would get 2 years ago !

Fairbride profit (assuming 100kg a month production)
Assuming POG 1900 oz
Production tax (6%) 114 oz
Direct cash costs (CB said 560 official but call it 600) 600 oz
Prod tax + Direct cash costs 714 oz
Tax (32%) (32% of profit) 380 oz
Net Profit per ounce 806
Margin % 42 (806/1900)

CB said in an interview about 2 years ago, the margin at FB would be between 40% and 50%. So 42% margin seems reasonable.

100kg Gold a month = 3200 troy oz
Xtract get 23% = 736 toz
42% margin = net to xtract =309 toz
Monthlt profit in $ (assuming $1900)(309 x 1900) $587,100
Monthly profit in £ is £440,00 a month

Second income stream.

Alluvial + small hard rock (assuming 100kg a quarter production)

CB said in the interview that production for alluvials per quarter would be same as FB per month
So assuming 100kg Gold a quarter = 3,200 troy oz
Last quarter was 2,811 oz for alluvials
3,200 a quarter is 14% increase on last quarter production
Last quarter net profit was $1.125M = $0.375M a month profit
Extra 14% (at 100kg production a quarter) = $428k a month
= £320K a month net profit (maybe a bit more as POG now a bit higher than last quarter)

So total manica net PROFIT should be circa £760K (£440K + £320k) a month from May/June

By then, we may also have some income from Eureka?

Shorn

I've spent my whole life claiming credit and getting praise for other peoples hard work - and I dont intend to stop now :)

Cela

Below are two info posts from two other respected posters. Worth spending some time doing your own research from info / links in these posts below.

Tbh, no point asking anyone here if its a good investment, as by definition, posters here are all invested and would obviously say yes its a great investment.

For what its worth, I think the buy-out will be between 25p to 40p and completed by end of the year. But DYOR - I could be wrong, it may be 50p :)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Steve 4077
This 30m video from the exploration team in July is right at the start of the second phase of drilling. It explains the original known deposit (71mt), which is looking very small now compared to the ranges being mentioned for Racecourse in recent interviews (500-700mt) and how that compares to the geophysics. A lot of the RNS from that point onward will make more sense with that video as context
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEIwR_0S7SE

This is a really key RNS which turns Bushranger from a single porphyry into a potential district and is probably foundational for the solidity in the share price since then.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/new-porphyry-copper-system-at-bushranger-project-jf37k5mf3lun2f1.html

This video is from less than two months ago and has a similar length and format to the first, but with more up to date information
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ8b--rhvRI

This RNS is about income from the small Africa assets, which backups Colin's repeated assertion that about no placing required.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-gold-update-ulfuuswenne4ad1.html

Having said that, it is worth going through all the RNS since December 2020 if you want to understand the whole story.

Andymillsy

For any new or potential investorsi posted a series of tweets following a poll on Twitter sharing some info on
1. How AA buyout can be triggered
2. How current SP is underpinned by revenue generating assets
https://twitter.com/andmillsy/status/1489731012905033736?t=lEJ86a0s13yntGXG3P4vIg&s=19

3. Possible valuation scenario for Bushranger
https://twitter.com/andmillsy/status/1491456862180737026?t=2_a0LP5Fzi6N09HQUxisdg&s=19

Xtract is a complex and evolving investment proposition and the intention was to share some data to help in a broader community.

It's a dialogue and my perspective and of course others may have different pov.

If anyone is trying to find a link to interviews and webcast then the following, which I just found today, may help you:
https://audioboom.com/search/posts?q=xtract&sort_by=recent

Its worth looking at in conjunction with RNS information as after most RNS there tends to be an interview
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/XTR/xtract-resources-plc/analysis

Xtract 59m 20 sec

The fundamentals have not changed over last few days so surprised to see the negativity. I have no reason to change my mind on my 25p to 40 p buy-out prediction. I may be wrong, but I cant see how it will be less than 10p - which is about double current sp.

We have income coming from FB soon and that, plus other African assets should alone support a 5p valuation. Even if RC and ascot is not as good CB has implied the sp will surely be 10p, at the very least, at buy-out stage.

I suspect we are going to have a period of little (significant), news for next 2 months and this maybe why some are getting a little concerned.

I may have got my 25p + prediction wrong (I don’t think so btw) but even if I have, I cant see how anyone buying now wont make money by end of the year, at the latest.

If we did get $500M offer by October that would equate to 37.5p offer. I would also be happy with that.

As I have a multi million share holding here so that circa 37p offer would give me enough money, by October, to fill up my car with petrol :)

Hopefully.

IWTO

You could be right, but that possible news you listed seems, to me anyway, less significant than good drill and assay results. If that didnt move the market I would be surprised if that news did. I hope I'm wrong but doubt it.

For this to break 8p and start a sustained upwards run (no retrace) I would think we need substantial news like open pit model confirmed / FB confirmed completed/ much higher alluvial income in Q1 (GF and BE showing very good income).

Any other news would probably see it rise a bit then fall back again within 2 to 3 weeks.

Of course imho

I know this is mainly a copper play, but the Gold aspect maybe going under the radar and could be more significant than maybe some think. Bridesmaid Gold is looking more attractive each month :)

btw I was really referring to FB re income soon, but you're right, alluvial income is happening now and it would be useful if Q1 results are similar to Q4 . Q2/3 are usually the best quarters as no hold-up in production(rain).

I suspect the sp may start to move more due to Gold plays (FB and alluvial) than from more and more assay / drill results. As good as they are, the market doesnt seem to be bothered - probably waiting for revised model which wont be for some time imho.

POG now at record high.

Manica Gold producer (or will be v soon)

Ascot Gold heavy

circa 5p SP

Just saying.........:)

With commodity prices going through the roof and likely to continue, the resource majors are going to be reporting massive profits at the next reporting period. And thats taking into account much higher energy costs.

With all these majors cash rich they are going to be able to massive amounts for any M and A..........

now at $5 lb

"....then we finally get drilling and guess what, we found another porphyry that we should investigate further, more drilling, more assays.............

Lucky
We can only dream of that happening ! By then we really would have FB income + very good alluvial so funding not an issue.

Another 10p on the buy-out??!!

Monty

The problem with that theory is that CB can't offer it to a major until we know what we have to offer and we wont know that until all the modelling is all done. This can't be done until its closed off in all directions. We have not closed off south section hence still drilling.

From RNS
"The modelling will require the conceptual open pit to be closed off in all directions in order to ensure that infrastructure or tailings dams are not incorrectly positioned over what is a continuing ore body."

This is why CBs time scale (or any timescale given) is inconsistent with his statement in the RNS. South section may not be closed of even by May or June??

Well I hope its not closed off by then :)

After the recent RNS I said I can;t see the buy out now happening until Q4. But I believe CB doesn't want to start giving honest timescales of say 9 months before buy out, as he may think many wont want to wait that long and sell up (and only come back nearer the time). Hes doing his usual " not long to go now before good news" routine.

That doesnt mean things wont happen as he says - just not when he says it. FB perfect example.

Good news is that resource and therefore buyout offer should be higher by end of year with more drilling than against original deadline.

I'm happy to wait 6 more months for extra 5p to 10p

For info .

https://xtractresources.com/shareholders/

Updated 31 Dec from 12 May 2021 (I noted 12 May holdings)

Hargreaves 137M increase 10m
Interactive 101m increase 20m
Halifax 66m increase 8m
Barclays 54m increase 4m
Alex Terry 45m increase 7.5M
AJ Bell 42m not above 3% on previous listing so increase of at least 7m

Jarvis now under 3%
Peter Hall now under 3%

Total shares in issue 841M to 845M (Circa 1 billion fully diluted)

Lets hope its above $11K when CB is looking for the buy-out price. That price was the assumed price in the modelling of the open pit study in July. Obviously that was against the original resource not the massive increase we have had.

I think it will be with the current massive tail wind for commodity prices - which should last at the very least until to the end of this year.

Going through the roof.....

$10400 LME and climbing

At this rate $11K looks like it could be taken out in the not too distant future

(ALL commodities are going through the roof btw)