Member Info for Andrew4444

"....but I guess the wider market has no clue of the significance"

I dont't think the wider market has a clue on most things xtract tbh, not just FB. If it did then we wouldn't have seen a 15% drop yesterday morning against that RNS.

The "not a clue comment" also applies to some new posters who popped in yesterday to give us LTHs their words of wisdom. :)

"it's scheduled to begin production in Q2 2022. Stay tuned for more content from the site visit! "

So we should be in production in 6 weeks latest. I would think that will not slip as its very near end timescales??

The comment... .. "stay tuned for more content from the site visit! " implies we may get more news very soon?

I hope.....:)

My best guess on the reason for the potential "Bad news" (And I dont think there is bad news coming btw) would be that we are a bit off the 2mt at RC and are batching up assay results to see if we can get to 2mt with ascot included. That may take time hence the delay.

I dont think that is likely or credible but would be by best explanation for the "silence is due to bad news theory"

I'm going for Occam’s razor theory :) CB is talking and negotiating and wants radio silence.

Actually CB has 41.5m shares and options

Total Options: 27,000,000

3,333,333 at 1p
3,333,333 at 1.25p
3,333,333 at 2p
10,000,000 at 10p 19 feb 2019
3,500,000 at 1.4p July 2020
3,500,000 at 2p July 2020

Shares 14.5M

TOTAL 41.50 M of options and shares.

If there was a small placement coming I would think CB would be putting his salesman hat on and doing his interview rounds telling everyone how great things was going to be here to get the sp up?

Complete radio silence for over a month seems strange if a placement was due?

In addition, with FB income v soon and the circa £1.3M in unsold gold, couldnt CB hold fire a month or so on expenditure before FB income starts?

Of course I maybe wrong!

I see CB has now listed another of his co on LSE.

You'd think he's be wanting to slow things down at his age !

Shorn

That is exactly my view and why i dont think the silence is due to CB waiting for some good news to hide the bad.

If I'm wrong I will win the award of the most naïve shareholder and CB's reputation will be in tatters (IMHO) after all he has said, implied over the last 12 months.

I'm very relaxed about the silence and delay in news.

Maybe delusionary relaxed, but relaxed none the less :)

"he told us it would be running by August 2017 initially"

If that's the case then fair enough. That was not my understanding re manica hard rock production.

I agree we have had many delays in other projects - but my point was specifically about manica hardrock so would not try to defend CB on his many other slippages.

"We are just a few months off the 5 year anniversary of his initial timelines for manica production".

We have certainly had many delays and slips in CB's timescales but I'm not sure its 5 years late?

We have had alluvial income from manica but the hard rock manica income is very late. I make it 2 years late in July, not 5.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-hard-rock-collaboration-agreement-ghoo8qdt7s68ji6.html

As others have said there is a plethora of news due on different aspects of the company.

IMHO the reason for the lack of news could be due to one of two reasons:

either because recent results for all these different company aspects have all, at the same time, been poor, or because there is a self imposed news moratorium .............for some reason :)

(btw Oz is a long way to go for a holiday !)

"All lost due to the site crashing because of the stupid F adverts!!"

I use ublock origin

Its Free, never had an advert, easy to switch on and off if required

"Results way below expectations? "

I guess that depends on what the expectations were and about what?

After all that CB has said and his implications and pointers over the last year, If we dont get 2mt of cont copper or a buy-out offer of circa 15p minimum then CBs credibility will be in tatters imho. I can't believe he would be so silly to say what he said and then part deliver way below his guidance.

My view is that even if it doesnt work out as spectacularly well as CB has implied, the sp should still be at x3 of what it is now by then end of the year. That s my worse case scenario inc African assets

If we do accept a 10p buy-out offer - the same offer that Cb said he would " tell them to stick it" if made, then no one here or indeed in his other companies would believe a word he ever says again.(IMHO).

CB may be a lot of things buts hes not an idiot.

I hope I havnt just won the award for the most naive Xtract share holder :)

Either Q1 results are not yet out because they are not that great (as is typical for Q1) or because there is a news moratorium - possibly due to negotiations.

I have no idea which view could be correct (if indeed either is correct), but it is surprising that we havent had any drill / assay results for some time. Hmmm?

Maybe I'm making 2+2 =22 ?

We'll see.

Re the possible difference 0.15% cut off could make.

Caravel Minerals in Australia is also as porphyry deposit. At page 7 of their presentation it shows how the mineral resource estimates change as the % cut-off is reduced.

0.3% to 0.15% increase of 96% CuT

Obviously Racecourse won't be identical to these mark-ups but gives a good indication of the increase as cut-off % reduced. So its possible that 0.31mt could be nearer 0.6mt not 0.5mt??

https://caravelminerals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020-11-AGM.pdf

Noticeable in table 2 and 3 of the scoping study that cont copper amount increases by circa 50% when cut-off is reduced from 0.3% to 0.2%. Gold amount increases by 70%.

No doubt another further big increase would happen if we reduced cut-off down to 0.15% - which I believe is what we will be using for the model??

As 0.3% was used in original JORC that 0.31Mt (71mt x 0.44%) could easily be 0.5mt at 0.15%. So we could have been at 25% of our 2mt target before any additional drilling had been done (using 0.15% cut off not the 0.3% that was used)

I can see why CB is confident we will hit the 2mt threshold !

"April / May.. June latest" = CB speak for July imho

Fireworks on 4 July ?? :)..Maybe...

Agreed James

Last 2 were released 2 weeks after period ended as they were both excellent. If we dont get Q1 released this week then I suspect they will be average at best. I've mentioned before that Q1 results are not great due to the heavy rains in this period.

I suspect that is why we havnt had the early release as per previous quarters.

Hope CB proves me wrong !

" $6-7m seems lower than descriptions provided recently by Colin in later interviews"

Tbh my understanding is the same as James' and consistent with my $500K to $600k a month that CB has stated a few times before.

As CB is known for being rather optimistic with his predictions, I would be very surprised if he was being pessimistic with his $600K a month FB income guidance so I doubt it will be much more, than $600k a month (£450k).

That alone should see the sp rise by a decent amount and may well be the catalyst to start the sustained SP climb.

“Would you agree with his figures Andrew? What margin of flexibility could we expect to see?”

My assumptions below are based on previous info and CBs previous interviews:

Possible FB income

Assuming POG 1900
Production tax (6%) 114
Direct cash costs (CB said 560 official but call it 600) 600
Prod tax + Direct cash costs 714
Tax (32%) (32% of profit) 380
Net Profit per ounce 806
Margin % 42

100kg Gold a month = 3200 troy oz
Xtract get 23% = 736 toz
42% margin = net to xtract =309 toz
Monthlt profit in $ (assuming $1900)(309 x 1900) $587,100
Monthly profit in £ £440,00

CB said in an interview about 2 years ago, the margin at FB would be between 40% and 50%. So 42% margin seems reasonable. In other interviews, he’s also stated $500K to $600K a month from FB which is also consistent with circa £450K a month

In direct answer to the question, I have no idea how high this will take the SP (obviously higher) as it depends on a number of other factors The main one being sentiment imho. We can get the sp to whatever value we want if we use the appropriate PE

I believe a significant driver will not just be the obvious one of increase in profit, but a change in sentiment. When FB starts production, we would then be a genuine profit making co, AT OVERALL GROUP LEVEL, and the possibility of dilution would be gone. We would also have funds to explore further areas and grow the co.

Its difficult to determine how much that would inflate the SP

In addition, CB said in the interview that production for alluvials per quarter would be about the same as FB per month.

So assuming 100kg Gold a quarter = 3,200 troy oz
Last quarter was 2,811 oz for alluvials
3,200 a quarter is 14% increase on last quarter production which seems a realistic and achievable increase by q2 if not in q1 due to rainy season.

Last quarter net profit was $1.125M = $0.375M a month profit = £280K a month
Extra 14% (at 100kg production a quarter) = £320K a month net profit (maybe a bit more as POG now a bit higher than last quarter)

So total manica net PROFIT should be circa £760K (£440K + £320k) a month from July? (Q2 results out)

That’s the magical $1m a month

For the reasons I’ve already given its hard to calculate what that means to the SP, but I would be very disappointed if that alone didn’t get the sp to double figures from manica income alone. But by then, July, there may well be a lot of other news, even more significant, so we may have a cumulative effect of different events causing the sp to continue to rise.

Of course AIMHO. I may be wrong.

The manica update shows how close we are to transformational income coming very, very soon......yet the sp hasnt moved since the update and we are still down !

Actually maybe someone gets it... another big buy £38K just gone through :)