Member Info for Andrew4444

Quote now available at 5.09p

on my HL and x-o account for last 10 mins

Hmmm??

Can anyone else get a quote??

CBs 45 sec quick mention of Xtract today has seen the sp lift over 3%

Imagine what could happen if he did a full interview :)

We may find out next week.........? !

Not much about Xtract but when you're starving you'll be thankful for some crumbs :)

1m 30 sec in for 45 secs

https://embeds.audioboom.com/posts/8090966/embed/v4

In the "12 stocks for xmas" podcast, CB said, or heavily implied, we would be using 0.15% cut off

The potential problem with continuing drilling is the cost. The potential upside has to be balanced against raising funds from further dilution. However, as we have substantial income coming from FB very soon I dont think there will be a raise and would be happy to let drilling continue.

Yes, without question the sp may soften in the short term due to the impatient leaving but I believe the end result would be a much better outcome.

I appreciate not everyone can or would want to wait 6 months longer for a better return but I would be happy to do so.

The FB income will put us in a very strong position IMHO re optionality.

If we do permanently stop all drilling at RC when we have hit 2mt then what has unequivocally been stated in the RNS, 2 months ago, is completely inaccurate.

I accept CB can at times "shoot from the hip" and be a tad overly optimistic in his interviews - so we should take some of what he says in interviews with a pinch of salt - but it would be a bit worrying imho if we should have to do the same with what is stated in an RNS.

Veracity of CB interview V RNS

I guess we'll fine out which one is more accurate very soon.

Pre covid we had to have the AMG by end of June with a calling notice usually end May / early June. Obviously there are now no covid restrictions preventing us "going back to normal" so I believe we should be getting a calling notice in the next 2 weeks??

My understanding is that the AGM had to be held by end of June (before covid issues)

Agree Jolly

Great way to make easy money trading this up and down... Until you get caught out with a great RNS after selling. All those 20% gains are blown out the water with a substantial rerate.

Worst still, you become like Asitis AKA Spaceman aka Dragon Slayer aka queensland winner who traded this successfully for years...then got caught out in the big rise. He has become so bitter and twisted, with any hope of more success here eating him up.

Not worth the risk in terns of sanity and money imho !

I agree that the possibility of its all done hence drilling finished is unlikely. That why my best guess would be: declare 2mt, then pause, maybe then more work on ascot, then finish off RC to complete open pit.

Thats why I think Cbs timescales will be, as ever too optimistic and I think July will be when open pit model will be completed.

That said, CB can always "play the joker" and declare we've found a " bonanza" and then all timescales are re set

If CB said a month not quarters, then thats probably why June was in my mind.

This is what the RNS stated:

"The modelling will require the conceptual open pit to be closed off in ALL directions in order to ensure that infrastructure or tailings dams are not incorrectly positioned over what is a continuing ore body."

To me, that reads that to complete the model we can't stop drilling when we are at 2mt as we need to know where the infrastructure can be situated before the model can be completed.

That doesnt mean we cant declare we have 2mt, pause drilling at RC and do more at Ascot before going back and completing RC? But my understanding is that the model can only be completed after we know the boundary of the open pit so 2mt is not a criteria in stopping drilling??

Of course we may have stopped all drilling at RC as it is now all closed off and we are going to get the announcement of 2mt+ and model done v soon. In which case CB will have kept to his original time scale of end May.

A number of possibilities and interpretations and I'm only guessing of poss outcome.

Gordie

You may well be right.

I may have misremembered the "weeks" statement as being June. If he did say weeks then that gives him a bit more license to slip past June imho

Obviously CBs get out of jail card is the qualifier that timescales are subject to not finding another "Bonanza"

"Very much aware of CB's statement that conclusion would be at the very latest in the month of May"

CB said "by end of April or May - June latest".

Add on the CB factor - I'm expecting announcement in July. Mid June at the earliest.

More than happy to be proved wrong.... and I mean by being too pessimistic - not too optimistic with July :)

Andmillsy

Even Sherlock Holmes would be proud of that analysis and deduction !

Btw, do you know where my car keys are :)

"the recent drill results are due to them testing the edges of both Racecourse and Ascot. So not surprising they aren’t great"

According to the RNS 2 months ago, the open pit study can only be completed when RC is closed off in all directions. If the results kept being good at the margins, then God knows when the RC open pit study would be completed, ....and therefore the buy-out done.

My belief is that If we are coming to an end of the mineralisation at the margins at RC then the buy-out is getting closer

"Modelling continues at the project, with the Racecourse prospect indicating that it has grades and tonnes justifying a rework of the conceptual open pit."

Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but that does seem like subtext saying either

we have the 2mt or

(at the very least) an economic pit that will be wanted by majors?

Well, that's the way I'm reading it anyway :)

John

Good post and very balanced. Antidote to the blue sky thinking that some, including me, have been guilty of.

That said, although I accept CB can be overly optimistic and exaggerate some of the expected results and timings, I dont believe he would be so stupid to say the many "superlative" things he has over the last year about prospects and the assets and then completely fail to deliver anything.

For this asset not to be economically viable, he would have completely failed and imho trashed his reputation. It would not be a case of "CB the ever optimist", but "CB the blatant liar". His legacy will be in tatters after all he has said.

So, adding in the CB factor to exaggerate and be overly optimistic, I would say the worst case outcome would be for CB to accept a buy-out offer of 12p + 3p valuation for African assets. So that's a worst case outcome of 15p sp which will see the sp nearly triple from current levels. And I do mean worst case outcome as I still think the buy-out will be over 20p with African assets at least 5p on top.

If I'm wrong and this proves not to be economic, then at least CB will have done something he has always wanted to do - secured his legacy.

But not in the way he would have wanted to :)

From RNS a month or so ago

"The modelling will require the conceptual open pit to be closed off in ALL directions in order to ensure that infrastructure or tailings dams are not incorrectly positioned over what is a continuing ore body."

I can see how they can stop drilling and take a pause after / when they hit 2mt cont copper threshold, but according to that RNS, if I'm reading it correctly, they will have to continue drilling (for how long it takes) to close off all directions and to complete open pit model.

If we have completed all RC drilling, then that should mean all directions have been closed off (according to that RNS).

I don't really understand the " we're going to stop drilling and go with what they had" comment as CB has said many times that he wants to close off all sides to RC.

You can't do that if drilling is time limited.

Maybe the " stop drilling" reference was because cb thinks we are at 2mt threshold and can start talks (not agree the final price) but does not preclude more drilling and therefore a higher final sale price.

Obviously I may be wrong but CB has said we will close off all areas of RC before agreeing a final sale price so we can't stop all drilling in May unless thats done.

"Why do they care? Why do they need to post?"

Maybe because they are LTHs and have a substantial amount of money and time invested in this stock?

Oh... and because they have built up knowledge and analysis to make sensible decisions, judgements and comments. Such as, not to panic in yesterday's drop and ignore the naysayers.

If anyone did listen to the naysayers and sold yesterday, they would have missed a circa 20% rise from yesterday's low.

Maybe thats why they post and care?