Member Info for Andrew4444

Hello Steve

I agree that 8p valuation at Bushranger would be criminal but I was trying to show how even in the worst case scenario there is still value at the current sp. I think I used the phrase "absolute worst case scenario" in my post. I wasnt trying to come up with a realistic or likely valuation.

I know we are not going to sell the African assets, but the discount was incase the sp didnt reach my expected 6p valuation from African assets alone.ie circa 4.5p worst case

Now the dust has settled from yesterday’s news/ interview, we may all be better placed to give a less emotive and more thoughtful analysis.

First thing to say is that CB has not, yet, missed his own implied deadline of end of June re RC model (he said it may be a month late from end of May). In addition, we don’t know what the MT at Racecourse will be. It may well be less than 2mt, but it may not be. Many are deciding what the verdict is before the jury has decided.

Even if the news is not what we hoped for re RC, moreover, what CB clearly implied it would be (and even stated the 2mt a meeting to shareholders) we will still have a sizeable and valuable asset at Bushranger. CB may end up selling it for the 10p offer that he said “ I’ll tell them to stick it if they offered us 10p” As bad as that may seem. that’s more than double current sp.

Then there’s the African assets. FB must be worth 5p when its fully up and running and we may get another 1p for the rest of the African assets – depending where we are with production on those. So circa 6p maybe?

If we discount the 16p possible valuation (10p +6p) by 25%, to be over cautious, then we have 12p. I really cant see how this is not going to go over 10p at some point - at the absolute worst case scenario – so the sp should 2 or 3 bag from this level.

The problem here imho is, as ever CB, over promising and under delivering. He may not deliver what he said, or indeed when, but he should deliver enough to see the SP substantially rise this year – even if its not going to be as high as many thought or hoped for. Of course, that may still happen.

Over to you Ascot:)

Well I hope copper prices dont go over $100K, as that will lead to demand destruction. The rise in price would be less than the reduction in demand due to cost.

may as well use a better conductor then and use silver !:)

I think $15K would be a very good realistic high.

He stated that FB is complete now.

I'm surprise CB didnt have a separate interview just to discuss FB, or even a FB RNS. This alone should support a sp of 5 to 6p when income starts .

When income starts (July??) it will be transformational and give us optionality. Therefore, more drilling should not mean more dilution.

"It needs more work to make Ascot a positive addition to the package"

Agreed. But I suppose the big question atm, is do we need it to make a positive addition to get us over the 2mt and trigger buy-out, or is this just extra value being found in addition to the 2mt at RC?

If no mention of RC open pit value within the next 6 weeks, then I think I know the answer!

Whatever the answer, thank God for FB income coming soon. We may well be doing a lot more drilling at Ascot then anyone thought 2 months ago.

" to announce such now would be to potentially trigger the AA buy back clause too early...which would be silly if there is still mineral expansion to go"

A view that a few have stated on here before and one which does sound plausible imho. And maybe why we are getting the interim report, which tells us that things are looking very good, but doesnt trigger the buy-back?

I hope that narrative is correct ! Of course it may not be.

Andy

Thanks for that info. I didnt realise that it could be extended

I'm seeing many Final results released for other companies so even though they can extend, I hope they dont as the AGM will be a great opportunity to ask CB a few questions!

Flipper

Colin has 41.5m shares and options, so he may feel he has enough !??

..Could be out this week. If not, then must surely be next week as I believe they must hold AGM by end of June and give 3 weeks notice.

Howzap

Maths only works when you know the values. That’s the problem – we don’t know the values!

What we do know is that the Cu resource approximately doubles when the cut-off grade is reduced from 0.3% to 0.15%. That’s based on empirical evidence rather than guess work.

Its not so much a case of “moving the goal posts”, but using a more pragmatic way of looking at things in the absence of known values.

Of course IMHO

Its very difficult to determine the mtCuEq as we dont know the true shape of the resource and there will obviously be many void areas in the shape.

A slight change in parameters and the final result massively changes.

I now look at it from a different view point and in more of a commonsense way and less mathematical.

We inherited 0.31mt using 0.3% cut-off. We know that by using 0.15% cut off the cu content approx doubles from looking at other findings, so at 0.15% cut off we now have approx 0.6mt inherited. So the question is has all the extra drilling and assy results increased the resource by at least 3 to 4 fold?

With the massive increase in size of the open pit, and not closed off yet, I cant see how the resource has not at least trebled, so I would be amazed of we are not at 1.8mt at the very least. That's using 0.15% cut off which CB said we would almost certainly be using.

I did say it was unscientific :)

Ben

This may help re calc volume !

https://www.calculator.net/volume-calculator.html?rtanklength=900&rtanklengthunit=meters&rtankwidth=600&rtankwidthunit=meters&rtankheight=600&rtankheightunit=meters&rectcal=Calculate#rectangular

using Bens measurements, grades would only need to be 0.21% to get to 2mt

Reading yesterday's the RNS again, I wonder if there is some confusion with the terminology that CB used??

We have been lead to believe that "The Racecourse conceptual open pit model" will be competed by end of May or about 1 month later (end June/early July)

But in the RNS CB said we would shortly have a "interim summary of the Racecourse and Ascot prospects."

The model was specific to RC so could these be two things (summary and model) be two completely different things and that some are assuming they are the same think or one replaces the other?

I've read some posters call the interim summary an interim model. But that is not what it is according to the RNS.

As they could be two different things giving different info, we may still get the RC (only) open pit model by end of June AND the interim summary soon covering RC AND Ascot.

Just a thought...or am I clutching at straws :)

"Is it that they have missed the 2mt target and want ascot to get us to the line or is the delay tactic to prove up more of ascot?"

IMHO This distils the debate.

One view is very worrying and challenges CBs credibility after all his comments re 2MT - and the other is very positive and delays things so the news is even better when it comes.

Which view is correct should become clearer in the next 6- 8 weeks.

btw. On reflection although I said that sp will tank if we have missed the 2mt, that may happen in the short term, but the African assets esp FB should support a SP of 5p to 6p on their own so IF we have failed to hit 2mt the sp should go back up to circa 6p as FB income ramps up.

IMHO this shows that the risk here is minimal as nothing / very little, is priced in re Bushranger.

That said, I would be very disappointed and believe CB would have mislead shareholders if we didnt get a buy-out at some point of 15p, absolute minimum, after all CBs "superlatives" over the last 12 months.

"You've been here as long as I have so you know all the 'tales' as well as I do"

Agreed. But for this timescale he was unusually unequivocal and absolute, not like the others with his "hopeful", trying to, want to etc

I am going to wheel out my one liner again, and say "I dont think CB would be such an idiot" and give such an unequivocal timescale and also state in public that we definitely will get 2mt (as you and others can testify to) and then not deliver.

Being overly optimistic is one thing, being a charlatan is another.

If I am wrong and being naive, then I doubt many will believe anything CB says ever again and I think the SP will tank imho.

That said, I think he will deliver as promised.

Gixxer

I hope not, but you could be right. If we dont get the final model all complete by end of july then I dont think the market will like that.

Not after CB going strong on him not missing targets and not a death by a thousand lashes. he usually throws in a few hopefully, possibly, aiming for etc to cover himself with timescales.

He did not with RC open pit model timescale.

Cb did caveat his "end of may" comment by saying we may miss it by a month (worst case) but not by quarters.

So we may find the open pit announcement is end June / early July - at the very latest.

If he does not make an open pit announcement by Mid July absolute latest and tries to distract shareholders with talk of ascot drilling and how great that is going to be, then I doubt the market will respond kindly to that.

Esp after he emphasised that he will not miss his target (caveat by more than a month) many times and it wont be a death by a thousand lashes.

That would really be giving the naysayers plenty of ammo !

With more ascot drilling required, the value of FB income and alluvial + small hard rock income cannot be overstated.

I see it as the petrol that drives the Rolls Royce

In the big picture this looks like good news to me. But I think we will be now doing a lot more drilling at Ascot than previously stated by CB. Which may well mean a later buy-out?

Some thought my "end of year" buy-out prediction , stated in March, was a bit pessimistic. I think its now looking optimistic !

I can wait a few more months for a bigger pay day :)